NFL Week 9 Picks, Odds: 3 Predictions and Best Bets for This Week

This Week’s NFL Best Bets in Summary

• Colts Moneyline (+215)
• Browns-Saints Under 43.5 (-110)
• Chargers +4.5 (-104)

If you want more FanDuel Research content, be sure to add FanDuel as a preferred source on Google.

The NFL season brings a full slate of opportunities for bettors each week. There are plenty of intriguing matchups and betting angles to consider across the schedule.

Here are our favorite NFL bets and predictions for this week. We’ll break down the matchups, key statistics and other factors behind each pick to help identify the best value on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published. Check out all of our NFL picks.

Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions

Colts Moneyline (+215)

Cowboys at Colts — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to a 2-6 record, but there's reason to consider them as a home underdog against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has been one of the NFL's worst defensive teams, ranking last in opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play (+0.12). The Cowboys are also allowing 26.6 points per game.

That presents an opportunity for Jonathan Taylor — assuming he’s still on the team at kickoff — who has rushed for 610 yards and eight touchdowns through eight games. Dallas has allowed +0.056 EPA per rushing play, and establishing Taylor could help Indianapolis control the clock and keep Dak Prescott off the field. The Colts also rank fourth in rushing efficiency in Sharp Football Analysis' matchup rankings, giving them a potential advantage against a vulnerable Dallas run defense.

The Colts have plenty of issues of their own, particularly with Daniel Jones throwing nine interceptions against just five touchdowns. However, Dallas' defensive struggles make this a potentially favorable spot for the Indianapolis offense to bounce back.

With Indy at +215, I think the market is underrating them a bit despite their recent struggles.

Browns-Saints Under 43.5 (-110)

Browns at Saints — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This is my favorite bet for Week 9.

The Cleveland Browns have struggled offensively this season, averaging just 17.4 points per game, and they may be sans Deshaun Watson (concussion). Cleveland ranks 28th in overall offensive efficiency and 32nd in rushing efficiency. The Browns' inability to consistently sustain drives has been a significant problem, making it difficult to trust them to contribute much scoring on the road against the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans has averaged 23.1 points per game, but Cleveland's defense presents a difficult matchup. The Browns rank eighth in overall defensive efficiency and fourth against the pass. With New Orleans sitting just 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Saints could have trouble generating consistent production through the air.

The Browns are also coming off a 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh while New Orleans managed only 10 points against the Steelers in Week 7. Neither offense has been especially reliable, and Cleveland's defensive strength should help keep this contest from turning into a shootout.

All in all, I think points will be really hard to come by in this game.

Chargers +4.5 (-104)

Texans at Chargers — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

If backing the Colts wasn’t scary enough, how about banking on the winless Los Angeles Chargers to cover?

LA has endured a disastrous 0-7 start, but their defense has remained competitive despite the team's offensive struggles. Los Angeles ranks ninth in defensive EPA per play (-0.038) and eighth in defensive EPA per dropback (-0.009). That unit could make life difficult for the Houston Texans‘ offense even if C.J. Stroud is playing good ball.

Houston's offense has been significantly more effective through the air than on the ground. The Texans rank 28th in rushing success rate (34.0%), which could make it difficult for them to consistently control the game. Meanwhile, the Chargers' pass rush, led by Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack, has the potential to overpower a meh Houston O-Line.

The biggest concern is Los Angeles' offense, which ranks last in EPA per play (-0.231) and success rate (36.0%). However, I think Justin Herbert is capable of making enough plays to keep the Chargers competitive, particularly if the Bolts’ defense continues playing at a top-10 level.

With Los Angeles getting more than a field goal at home, the Chargers have a path to covering the spread even without securing their first victory.

NFL Betting FAQ

What Does the Point Spread Mean in NFL Betting?

The point spread is designed to create a handicap between two teams. For example, if a team is listed at -3.5, it needs to win by at least four points for a spread bet on that team to cash. A team listed at +3.5 can either win outright or lose by three points or fewer and still cover the spread.

What Is an Over/Under in NFL Betting?

An over/under — also called a game total — is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. If the total is set at 47.5, an over bet wins if the teams combine for 48 or more points, while an under bet wins if they combine for 47 or fewer.

What Is a Moneyline Bet in the NFL?

A moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the final margin. Favorites generally have shorter odds, while underdogs typically offer a larger potential return because they are considered less likely to win.

What Should You Consider Before Betting on an NFL Game?

Matchups, injuries, offensive and defensive efficiency, weather, home-field advantage, and recent performance can all be important factors. It's also worth monitoring line movement because NFL odds can change throughout the week as sportsbooks react to injuries, betting activity, and new information.

Where Can You Bet on NFL Games?

NFL bettors can find spreads, moneylines, totals, player props, and other markets at FanDuel Sportsbook via FanDuel’s NFL odds. Betting options and availability can vary by state, and odds may move leading up to the start of the game.

New customers can get $200 in Bonus Bets -- guaranteed -- when you bet $5 each day for four days. Place your first wager now! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL odds to see the full menu of options. You can also check out our How to Bet on the NFL guide.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.