NFL Season-Long Player Prop Betting: Will Dak Prescott's Passing Production Rebound in 2023?

The NFL passing prop market on FanDuel Sportsbook has Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s passing yardage prop set at 3,925.5 yards for the 2023 season. The 29-year-old has seasons of 4,902 and 4,449 passing yards on his resume, but those were the only two of his seven seasons in which he eclipsed that 3,925.5-yard line. On which side of the line will Prescott fall in the 2023 NFL season?

Does Dak Have the Right Supporting Cast?

Perhaps more than any other quarterback in the league, Prescott’s production has seemed to stem directly from his surroundings. His debut campaign saw him throwing well to Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley. As those players grew older and less effective over the next two seasons, Prescott’s efficiency waned. When the Cowboys integrated Amari Cooper into their offense halfway through the 2018 season, Prescott’s passing production spiked back up.

He was a prolific passer between 2019 and 2021 when the Cowboys’ offenses boasted pass-catching groups based around Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. After the team traded away Amari Cooper, his numbers sank while he was throwing to Lamb, Schultz, and an injured Michael Gallup in 2022.

The Cowboys did look to restore some of their depth at the receiver position in the offseason by acquiring Brandin Cooks from the Houston Texans but also lost Schultz to Houston via free agency. They’ll enter the season with Lamb, Cooks, and Gallup as their top wideouts with a group of first and second-year tight ends alongside them.

Gallup will, hopefully, look better in 2023 after his dismal 2022 season. The former second-round pick did not appear to be at full strength for much of last year after tearing his ACL near the end of the previous season and finished the year with a career-low 5.7 yards per target -- almost 3 full yards fewer than his average in that stat over the rest of his career.

The Cowboys were wise to acquire Cooks for a late-round pick this offseason, but the veteran wideout could be a wildcard in 2023. His third and final season with the Houston Texans saw him finish with his lowest yards per game (53.8) and yards per route run (1.56) since his odd second season with the Los Angeles Rams in 2019. Playing with Prescott could help him return to form this year.

Playcalling Could Make All the Difference

The Cowboys’ offense should also see some form of an overhaul after the team parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who called plays for the team in each season since 2019. The team promoted former Jaguars and Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to replace Moore. Head coach Mike McCarthy expressed a desire to run the ball more this season, yet the team finished sixth in rushing attempts last year (531) and second in rushing scores (24). The comment is mildly concerning at a surface level, but there isn’t really room for the team to run much more often than they already were.

Another piece of the contextual puzzle for Prescott has been his production relative to the Cowboys’ defense. When the game script called for Prescott to pass the ball, he lived up to the challenge. Until his injury in 2020, Prescott was on pace to break records with his passing due to the team’s league-worst defense.

The Cowboys’ defense projects to be a solid one for the 2023 season. Micah Parsons has been one of the league’s premier pass-rushers since his 2021 rookie season, and the team has finished first in defensive turnovers in back-to-back seasons. With most of their defensive starters returning, they’ll enter the year with high expectations.

Avoiding Injuries

Finally, it has to be noted that Prescott has missed time in each of the past three seasons. Every missed game hurts his chances of reaching any given passing yardage total. At a full 17 games, Prescott would need to average just 230.9 passing yards per game to hit the over. Each game missed would require him to throw for an additional 17 per game to hit the over, meaning at 3 missed games he’d need to average 280.4 yards -- a mark only Patrick Mahomes exceeded last season.

Prescott has thrown for at least 230.9 yards per game in all but his second season in the league. Even last year while playing alongside one of the best defenses in the league, he averaged 238.3 yards per game. With hopeful improvements to his pass-catching group – and the team moving on from Ezekiel Elliott’s inefficient rushing – Prescott should be able to pass at least as well as he did last year. As long as he stays healthy, Prescott should project to beat the over on his passing yard prop.

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