NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Lamar Jackson Remains a Stud

One of the best distinctions between the NFL AP MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) is that where the MVP award is usually awarded to the quarterback on the best NFL team each year, the OPOY recognizes individual excellence in a less context-dependent fashion. Quarterbacks win the MVP award almost every year, but the OPOY award goes to the most impressive players.

That distinction can level the playing field between quarterbacks and other skill position players come awards season. The past four awards have been won by three wide receivers and a running back while still leaving room to award quarterbacks for truly outstanding play. Cooper Kupp can win the OPOY award in 2021 for his Calvin Johnson-esque receiving performance in a season where Aaron Rodgers wins the MVP for leading the Green Bay Packers to a 13-4 season.

With that being said, the only reason Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson doesn’t already have an OPOY award on the shelf next to his MVP trophy is because of Michael Thomas’ record-breaking 2019 season. Thomas’ season finished with him leading the league in every receiving category while setting the record for most receptions in a single season, a feat that was certainly deserving of OPOY recognition. If the AP’s voters didn’t feel the need to honor Thomas’ season, Jackson’s own record-setting campaign would have taken home both the MVP award and the OPOY that year.

Heading into the 2023 season, the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Jackson has the sixth-best odds (+2200) among players in the league. Looking at the Ravens’ offseason moves, it’s kind of easy to see why. Jackson is already building a strong case.

What’s New With Jackson

Jackson and the Ravens tore up the NFL during the 2019 regular season, but rampant injuries and stale coaching caused the well of their offensive production to slowly dry up over the past few seasons. The team will shake things up this season, though, and will be bringing in former Georgia Bulldogs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Todd Monken to run their offense.

Monken’s offense should be a pretty major departure from the offense we’ve seen the Ravens run under Greg Roman in recent years. Where Roman’s tenure with the Ravens featured tight ends almost at the cost of wide receivers, Monken’s offenses have produced some gaudy numbers over the years.

His most recent seasons were spent coordinating offenses for the Georgia Bulldogs, who won back-to-back national championships in Monken’s two seasons there. His Bulldogs offenses ranked ninth and fifth in all of college football in 2021 and 2022 and made heavy use of tight end Brock Bowers in the receiving game. Fans of tight end Mark Andrews’ production over the past few seasons probably won’t need to worry much about the change in offensive coordinator.

Monken’s last real stint at the NFL level saw him coordinating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ high-flying offenses during the peak of the Jameis Winston years. In those seasons Monken’s offenses utilized the Bucs’ elite receivers to best capitalize on Winston’s propensity for throwing deep passes. In his final year as the Bucs’ offensive coordinator, the team finished with the third-most passing yards in the league.

The biggest takeaway from Monken’s resume is his willingness to feature an offense’s best players as opposed to stressing one particular system. That approach should help him adapt quickly in Baltimore, where he and Jackson will have quite an interesting arsenal of options to utilize in their offense.

Reinforcements on the Way

The Ravens made significant investments in the pass-catching department this offseason as part of their plea to get Jackson back under contract, and those moves could pay massive dividends during the season.

Beyond just Mark Andrews, who has led the team in receiving in three of the last four seasons, the team will be returning former first-round pick Rashod Bateman (foot), signed free agent receiver Odell Beckham to a significant contract in free agency, and invested another first-round pick in former Boston College wideout Zay Flowers in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Without even looking into the impressive skill sets of each of these players, it’s worth noting that the simple fact of their presence alone is a big step forward for the Ravens' offense. Bateman was with the team last season, but after his season-ending foot injury, it was clear just how depleted of reliable playmakers their roster was. The team relied on journeyman Demarcus Robinson and return-game-specialist Devin Duvernay as their two top wideouts after Bateman’s injury. Having three legitimate playmakers at the receiver position – in addition to both Andrews and talented teammate Isaiah Likely – gives the Ravens’ passing game a significantly higher floor than it has had in recent years.

Bateman had been showing promise as a potential breakout player before his injury, too. He had been averaging an elite 2.38 yards per route run when healthy last year, which would have ranked as the 11th-best mark among wide receivers in the entire league. A full, healthy season from him would be a massive boost to the offense.

We’ve seen Beckham reach the highest heights of the sport in previous seasons, and the veteran – who will be returning from an injury of his own – was instrumental in the Los Angeles Rams’ successful Super Bowl run just two seasons ago. The team gave him a surprisingly large contract for the upcoming season and clearly has high expectations for the former All-Pro wideout.

Flowers will be a rookie in 2023 but has multiple paths to productivity in his first NFL season. The diminutive receiver was a dominant player on short targets and designed plays during his tenure at Boston College but also flashed elite deep-ball skills at the NCAA level despite playing with some of the worst passers the college game had to offer. He likely won’t be asked to operate as one of the team’s top receivers without injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and should project as a serious upgrade over what the Ravens got out of Duvernay last year.

When considering the Ravens’ disappointing past two seasons, it needs to be said that they’ve had some of the worst injury luck in the sport since 2021. Every team is capable of blaming injuries and bad luck for poor performances, but the Ravens were the most-injured team during the 2021 season. Football Outsider’s Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric tracks how many games a team’s players missed during the season and measures how many games those teams “lost” due to those injuries (the adjusted metric takes into account the inherent value of each player when considering their games “lost” as well). The Ravens recorded the highest AGL Football Outsiders had ever encountered since they began tracking the metric with a 180.2 AGL mark in 2021. The 2022 Ravens fared a little bit better but still finished with the eighth-highest AGL in the league last season.

Injuries have played a massive role in the Ravens’ disappointing past few seasons, making the successes they did accomplish look even better given the context. The team has still posted an 18-16 record in those seasons. If they can even achieve league-average levels of injury luck in 2023, they’ll be in line for a massive bounce-back season.

Returning to 2019 Levels

This all sets Jackson himself up for a potentially record-breaking campaign. The young quarterback already holds the record for most quarterback rushing yards in a single season, and with a healthy and functional offense around him for the first time in years, he could even break that record this year.

Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign saw him setting that aforementioned rushing record while somehow also leading the league in passing touchdowns. We haven’t seen his touchdown rate approach the insane 9.0% mark he met that year, but he has remained an efficient touchdown passer even as their receiving options depleted. With more exciting options in the passing game and a healthier set of surrounding talent, we could see Jackson post another strong season of touchdown efficiency.

OPOY bettors are likely aware of the potential rushing record race between Jackson and Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fieldsthis season. Jackson still holds the record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season with an impressive 1,206 yards in 2019. Last season, Justin Fields was on pace to break that record at multiple points during the season and finished with 1,143 rushing yards despite a slower start and two missed games. These two quarterbacks will not only be competing against the current record but also against each other to break it. If Jackson trumps over his own record and Justin Fields, he could have a pretty straight shot at an OPOY award by the end of the year.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.