NFL MVP Betting: The Case for Trevor Lawrence

Has any player ever entered the NFL with higher expectations than Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback Trevor Lawrence?

Lawrence entered the college football scene as a five-star prospect and the number one overall recruit in his entire class. He immediately led the Clemson Tigers to an undefeated 15-0 record and a College Football Championship victory as a freshman. Draft analysts wrote his name down in pen as the first overall pick for the 2021 NFL Draft as early as his freshman year in 2018.

We don’t have to go into too much detail about Lawrence’s first season in the league – the Urban Meyer Jaguars were the butt of just about every joke that year and finished with the worst record in the league for a second straight season. But in 2022, Lawrence truly started to look like the generational prospect we all hoped he could be.

The turnaround was impressive. Just one season after losing 14 games, the Jaguars made the playoffs and went toe-to-toe with the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs. Heading into his third season in the league, Lawrence now has a real chance to put together an MVP-worthy campaign in 2023.

With +1600 odds to win the MVP award on the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL MVP odds, Lawrence is tied with Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa for the seventh-best odds to take home the award in 2023.

But unlike many of his rivals – who simply need to maintain the greatness they’ve already displayed at the NFL level – Lawrence will need to take his game to the next level to rise to the standards of an MVP. He wasn’t quite there yet in 2022, but there’s reason to believe he could ascend in 2023.

An Optimistic Outlook

Lawrence has already taken a massive step forward as a passer in just two years in the league. His disastrous rookie season led to him throwing 17 interceptions in as many games – the same number he threw in his three seasons as Clemson’s starting quarterback. In 2022, he was only picked off eight times and threw interceptions at an impressive 1.4% rate.

The interceptions weren’t the only noticeable improvement to his game, either. His abysmal 2% touchdown rate rose to an acceptable 4.3% mark in his second season, while he improved his already-solid sack rate to an elite 4.4% rate – the fourth-lowest in the NFL. He truly started to look like the elite prospect that led Clemson to a National Championship as a true freshman.

We’ve seen Aaron Rodgers leverage extremely low sack and interception rates into MVP campaigns in two of the past three seasons. Between his two most recent MVP-winning seasons, Rodgers threw just nine total interceptions while posting a 4.5% sack rate. If Lawrence can maintain his elite ability to avoid negative plays in 2023 he should be able to keep his name in the MVP-race conversation throughout the year.

Jacksonville Rising

The 2021 Jaguars did not have a functional receiver corps, and Lawrence’s rookie seasons suffered for it. Led by 31-year-old Marvin Jones, the team relied heavily on Laviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell to keep the chains moving for their offense. That group was weak enough that Lawrence found greater success throwing to role-playing tight ends like Dan Arnold and James O'Shaughnessy than he did throwing to his wideouts.

Fielding a group of respectable pass-catchers played a huge role in Lawrence’s development in Year 2. Upgrading from O’Shaughnessy – who was out of the league in 2022 – and Arnold – who caught just nine passes in 2022 – to Evan Engram was a massive boost in production from the tight end group. And while the contracts their front office awarded to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones were the subject of a ton of offseason ridicule, those players balled out for the Jags last season.

The team’s top three wideouts combined for a paltry 1,885 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in 2021. Their top three receivers posted 2,460 yards and 16 scores in 2022, while Engram added another 766 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns from the tight end position. Just from a personnel perspective, the improvement was massive, and Lawrence took off as a passer as a result.

Things could look even better in 2023 as well. Former Atlanta Falcons receiver, Calvin Ridley, will be making his return to the NFL after serving out his one-year suspension for violating the league’s gambling policy. The 28-year-old finished fifth in the NFL with 1,374 receiving yards in his last full season and is already making good impressions in OTAs while the team works him back up to speed.

AFC South Favorites

The offense hasn’t been the only thing on the rise in Jacksonville – their defense took a leap forward in 2022 as well. A year removed from allowing 26.9 points per game (fifth-worst), the Jags defense limited their opponents to 20.6 points per game (12th-best). The growth on both sides of the ball led to the team finishing with a 9-8 record and the AFC South title. It was just their second season with a winning record over the last 10 years.

The team did not invest any Day 1 or 2 picks on the defensive side of the ball in the 2023 NFL Draft, so they’ll be leaning on much of the same core group of players to hold down the fort this season. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem like they’ll need to make a massive leap forward to make a positive impact for the Jags this year – just a bit of regression should do the trick. The team finished fourth in the NFL in pressure rate with a 25.1% mark in 2022, but their 35 total sacks ranked the seventh-worst in the league. Just 21% of their quarterback pressures turned into sacks, the worst rate in the whole league. Generating pressure is essential to strong defensive play in the NFL, but converting that pressure into sacks more consistently should help the defense end drives more effectively in 2023.

Things are looking up on both sides of the ball in Jacksonville, a sentiment reflected by their division-best -160 odds to win the AFC South according to the NFL Divisions Betting Odds market on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Only the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West (-165) have greater odds to win their division than the Jaguars this year.

The Jaguars will be competing against the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South this season. The Texans and the Colts are likely to be starting rookie quarterbacks after finishing the 2022 season with two of the worst records in the league. While the Titans appear to be a team on the decline with a potential rebuild possible in the near future.

Virtually every MVP-winner in recent history has led their team to a Division title in their award-winning seasons, and none of the winners over the last 10 seasons have finished with fewer than 11 total wins. The Jags would need to pick up at least two more wins from their nine-win 2022 season to reach that threshold in 2023, but with growth from Lawrence, that seems within reach. The NFL Win Totals Betting Odds market has the Jaguars’ over/under set at 9.5 wins, with -150 to the over. Playing in a soft AFC South should be a huge boost to them reaching that total this year.

Conclusion

Lawrence looked like a completely different quarterback in 2022 than he did in his disastrous rookie season and has the potential to finish the 2023 season as the MVP. He already possesses an elite ability to limit negative plays as a passer – a skillset Aaron Rodgers has used to win multiple MVP awards – and could reach new heights in his second season under head coach Doug Pederson. The addition of Calvin Ridley to their passing offense could be a boon to Lawrence’s touchdown production.

The Jags look poised to win back-to-back AFC South titles for the first time since the turn of the century and have a legitimate chance to win double-digit games for just the seventh time in franchise history. Unlike some of his competitors for the award this season, Lawrence will need to take a step forward to make a serious case, but the former top prospect is set up well to do just that in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.