NFL Hall of Fame Game Preseason Best Bets: Texans vs. Bears

If you're betting the NFL preseason, there are a couple of things you've gotta know.

1. Which players are actually playing?

2. How does each coaching staff treat the preseason?

Those dynamics are always tough to decipher, but it can be especially difficult with the Hall of Fame Game.

We can, though, at least dig into the history of the event -- and the history of the Chicago Bears' and Houston Texans' coaching staffs -- to see if any trends emerge that could lead to value in the NFL Hall of Fame Game betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let's start with what we know about each team before digging into past Hall-of-Fame Games, and then we can see which bets stand out most.

Will the Texans and Bears Play Their Starters?

Unsurprisingly, neither the Bears nor Texans will trot out their starters on Thursday night.

The Bears will sit No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, instead starting Tyson Bagent. They've also got veteran Brett Rypien alongside rookie Austin Reed on the depth chart, so we could well see three quarterbacks on the Bears' side.

Similarly, the Texans will sit C.J. Stroud, and backup Case Keenum has missed practices recently to injury. Thus, we can expect a bunch of Davis Mills as head coach Demeco Ryans has said this game is a good chance to see what the young guys on the roster have got.

Chicago Bears Preseason History

We've got just six games of data on Bears head coach Matt Eberflus in the preseason, and those games haven't been snoozers.

Here's how all six games have played out with the total being points scored across both teams and point differential being by how many points the Bears won or lost that game.

With the total in this game sitting at 31.5, Eberflus' tendencies seem noteworthy.

Houston Texans Preseason History

For Ryans, we have just one preseason's worth of data, and his games have been much more in line with market expectations.

Here's the same table as above for last year's Texans preseason games.

There was likely incentive for Ryans to set a proper tone with that being his debut season, and the Texans performed admirably there. With a playoff berth now under his belt, we could see a shift in Ryans for year two, meaning we shouldn't put too much stock in what we saw there.

Hall of Fame Game History

Because this is such a unique situation -- where each team gets an additional preseason game -- we tend to see coaches handle things a bit differently when they're in Canton.

Thus, it's worth digging into previous outcomes here to see if anything noteworthy pops up.

Here are the total points scored in the past 10 preseason games. The 2020 and 2016 contests were cancelled due to COVID-19 and poor field conditions, respectively.

The median in this span -- 31.5 -- is dead even with what bookmakers have set for this one. It's almost as if they know what they're doing.

Hall of Fame Game Best Bets

Over 31.5 (-110)

Interest in the over is partly fueled by Eberflus' preseason history, but I also think the quarterback play here is noteworthy.

The quarterbacks most likely to see extended run in this game are Bagent, Mills, and Rypien. All of them have -- at some point -- earned starts in regular-season games, more than you can say for most quarterbacks this deep on the depth chart. Given the role quarterbacking plays in totals, that's key.

Both teams also have some solid depth at pass-catcher. With the Texans' key players likely to sit, we could get solid run out of Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III, and Johnny Johnson, all of whom have flashed at times either in the NFL or in college. The Bears have similar profiles in Velus Jones, Tyler Scott, and 2022 preseason stud Collin Johnson.

It's always possible this game goes well under the total. But given we can have somewhat high expectations for each passing game, the over is enticing.

Bears Over 100.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The big focus above was the passing game, but the Bears have depth in the backfield, too.

After the addition of D'Andre Swift, the Bears have league-caliber backs two through four on the depth chart in Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer. Homer seems unlikely to play, which could lead to a bit extra run for Johnson, a 2023 fourth-round pick with some juice.

Bagent will run a bit himself, too. He had 20-plus yards in 2 of his 4 starts last year, including 70 yards on 8 attempts in Week 9. This doesn't specify who records the yardage, meaning Bagent factors into the equation.

In Eberflus' six preseason games, the Bears have gone over this total four times, averaging 112.3 rushing yards per game.

Because rushing drains clock, this doesn't necessarily correlate with our total points over. But I do think both bets make sense individually without necessarily cancelling each other out, allowing us to consider having both on the same betslip.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.