NFL Betting Trends: How Often Do Underdogs Cover in Week 1?

Research is a key component to NFL betting, and while some trends can really come across as flashy, we have to keep in mind that trends are descriptive. They tell us about what has happened.

If a team's star quarterback is out, his franchise's record against divisional opponents the last four years may not really be of use when digging into an upcoming matchup.

But even with that, it's good to know as much as we can before making up our minds.

So, I'll be looking to pinpoint some potentially noteworthy trends entering each week of the NFL season.

Note: All betting odds and trends since 2019, unless otherwise noted. All data from numberFire.

Home Field Advantage Has Been Weaker Than Usual in Week 1

As we get deep into the NFL season, travel and rest and home field advantage can all make a big difference when it comes to winners and losers -- both outright and against the spread.

But in Week 1, historically, that home field advantage hasn't been as strong as it has been later in the season.

It's been a coin flip for teams to win at home in Week 1 since 2019, and the home team has been weak against the spread (45.3%) compared to all other regular season weeks (48.7%).

The average point differential of -0.2 is pretty eye-opening -- compared to a +1.5 in all other regular season weeks for home teams.

Underdogs Cover Well in Week 1

On a somewhat similar note, since 2019, underdogs have found more Week 1 success than in other weeks of the regular season.

This is a +5.4-point increase in win percentage and a +5.7-point increase in cover rate compared to the rest of the regular season.

Other notable underdog-related trends since 2019 in Week 1:

• Underdogs of 3.0 points or fewer are 15-18-1 (45.5%) outright and 19-14-1 (57.6%) ATS.
• Underdogs of 6.0 points or greater are 7-20-1 (25.9%) outright and 17-11-0 (60.7%) ATS.
• Home underdogs are 11-22-2 (33.3%) outright and 18-16-1 (52.9%) ATS.
• Road underdogs are 25-36-0 (41.0%) outright and 36-25-0 (59.0%) ATS.

Scoring Is Less Volatile in Week 1

Less volatile scoring? In Week 1? Well, yes, but it's pretty logical when we think about it.

The standard deviation in scoring (12.7) is lower in Week 1 than in other regular season weeks (13.8), yet along with that, we see a higher rate of games that go over 50 points (38.5%) in Week 1 than in other regular season Weeks (36.8%).

What's the deal?

Well, health is a place to start. Teams are -- theoretically -- healthier in Week 1 than in later weeks in the season, and we see that affect over/unders. There's also rest and weather and standings to account for.

Here's the average over/under for all games broken into thirds of the season (plus Week 1 specifically):

• Week 1: 45.8
• Weeks 1 through 6: 45.8
• Weeks 7 through 12: 45.3
• Weeks 13 through 18: 44.2

So, it's not really true that teams take a while to get into mid-season form in terms of scoring. No, rather the over/unders are typically set high to account for healthy teams without rest issues.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.