Nevada vs Air Force College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MWC Tournament

The No. 5 seed Nevada Wolf Pack (20-11, 12-8 MWC) square off against the No. 12 seed Air Force Falcons (3-28, 0-20 MWC) in the MWC tournament Wednesday at Thomas & Mack Center, tipping off at 5:30 p.m. ET. Both teams will attempt to get one step closer to securing an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Nevada vs. Air Force Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: MW Network
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Arena: Thomas & Mack Center

Nevada vs. Air Force Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Nevada win (94.4%)

Before you place a wager on Nevada-Air Force outing (in which Nevada is a 20.5-point favorite and the over/under is set at 141.5 points), below are some betting trends and insights for Wednesday's game.

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Nevada vs. Air Force: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Nevada has won 16 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 15 times.
• Air Force has covered 11 times in 31 matchups with a spread this season.
• Nevada hasn't covered the spread as a 20.5-point favorite or more this season, while Air Force covers as an underdog of 20.5 or more 50% of the time.
• Against the spread, the Wolf Pack have fared better at home, covering 10 times in 17 home games, and five times in 12 road games.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Falcons have a lower winning percentage at home (.333, 6-12-0 record) than on the road (.417, 5-7-0).
• Nevada has 11 wins against the spread in 20 conference games this year.
• Air Force's MWC record against the spread is 7-13-0.

Nevada vs. Air Force: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Nevada has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 20 games this year and has walked away with the win 16 times (80%) in those games.
• The Wolf Pack have played as a favorite of -4545 or more just one time this year and came away with a win in that game.
• Air Force has been the moneyline underdog 29 total times this season. Air Force has gone 1-28 in those games.
• The Falcons have played eight times as a moneyline underdog with odds of +1600 or longer, and fell in each game.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Nevada has a 97.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Nevada vs. Air Force Head-to-Head Comparison

• Last season, Nevada was 221st in the nation offensively (72.3 points scored per game) and 58th defensively (68.1 points conceded).
• Nevada was 318th in college basketball in rebounds per game (29.5) and 28th in rebounds allowed (28.2) last season.
• Last season Nevada was ranked 77th in the country in assists with 15 per game.
• Nevada was 50th in the nation in turnovers per game (9.8) and 166th in turnovers forced (11.4) last year.
• Air Force averaged only 61.9 points per game (-3-worst in college basketball) last season, but it played more consistently on defense, where it surrendered 73.7 points per game (232nd-ranked).
• While Air Force ranked in the bottom 25 in the nation in boards per game with 26.9 (fourth-worst), it ranked 217th in college basketball with 31.8 rebounds allowed per game.
• Last year Air Force ranked 196th in college basketball in assists, putting up 13.4 per game.
• Air Force ranked 277th in college basketball with 12.2 turnovers per game last season. Meanwhile, it ranked 322nd with 9.7 forced turnovers per game.

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