NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks: Yale vs. San Diego State Prediction and Odds

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
NCAA Tournament Betting Picks: Yale vs. San Diego State Prediction and Odds

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

The Yale Bulldogs, the 13 seed in the East Region, knocked off analytics darling Auburn in the first round on Friday by two points.

The San Diego State Aztecs aim to represent the Mountain West well again this year but were pushed to the brink by the UAB Blazers and won by four in their opener.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Yale vs. San Diego State Betting Odds

Date and Time: Sunday, March 24th (9:40 p.m.)

Spread: San Diego State -5.5 (-112)

Total: 128.5

Moneyline:

  • Yale: +198
  • San Diego State: -245

Yale vs. San Diego State Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

Yale

  • numberFire Ranking: 86th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 85th
  • KenPom Ranking: 86th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 90th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 89th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 327th

San Diego State

  • numberFire Ranking: 22nd
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 29th
  • KenPom Ranking: 21st
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 9th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 62nd
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 266th

Yale vs. San Diego State Best Bet

Over 128.5 (-110)

San Diego State survived a scare from 12 seeded UAB to reach the Round of 32 in what was a tight game across the board.

The Aztecs shot just 5 of 18 from the three-point arc (27.8%), down from a season average of 31.2% (which is only 306th in the nation to begin with). That's not their strength.

Their strength is their defense (14th in adjusted defense via BartTorvik and 9th via KenPom).

Yale, on the other hand, went 9 of 20 from deep (45.0%) against Auburn in their 78-76 win on Friday. They shoot at a 34.9% clip on the full year (126th in the nation).

With San Diego State's offensive concerns (62nd in adjusted offensive rating via KenPom and 69th at BartTorvik), they'll need to clamp down Yale offensively from a game-wide perspective.

But what does it all mean for the point total? Maybe not what you think based on San Diego State's defensive strength.

Yale has faced two top-50 adjusted defenses this season (Kansas and Gonzaga). In those games, they scored 60 and 71 points for an average of 65.5. In all other games, they averaged 75.8 points.

San Diego State has averaged 74.5 points per game in 11 contests against teams ranked between 60th and 100th in adjusted defense -- in line with their full season average of 74.6.

In total, 26 of 32 of Yale's games reached at least 129 points, and that number for the Aztecs is actually 28 of 35.

My model thinks this game scores a median of 135.0 points. MasseyRatings projects this game for 132.6 points, as well.

This is a low total -- as low as it gets for the Round of 32 -- but the data says it's too low.

Yale vs. San Diego State Prop Bet

Jaedon LeDee Over 21.5 Points (-115)

Jaedon LeDee's points prop of 21.5 is right in line with his full season average of 21.4 points per game.

In games where he played at least 30 minutes, he has averaged 22.2 points per game, and that goes up to 22.9 in his 17 games with at least 35 minutes played.

LeDee was the focal point for the SDSU offense against UAB, which is nothing new. He had a 38.4% usage rate and attempted 18 shot attempts plus 10 free throws for 32 points across 35 minutes.

The 6'9" LeDee does the majority of his work inside the arc, and his recent point totals have been (working backwards) 32, 25, 22, 34, 21, 12, 27, 22, 23, 23, 27, and 20. His single-game usage rate has dipped below 28.0% once over his last 14 games.

Although Yale beat Auburn, they allowed the Tigers to shoot 20 of 33 (60.6%) from two-point range. They also struggled to keep Auburn off the line (22 attempts).

LeDee's volume and usage rate line up here for him to score.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.