NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks: Is 11 Seed New Mexico a Worthy Favorite?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

It's every college basketball fans' favorite time of the year. You've got your bracket ready to go. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

New Mexico vs. Clemson Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, March 22, 3:10 p.m. ET

Spread: New Mexico -2.5 (-110)

Total: 151.5

Moneyline:

  • New Mexico: -134
  • Clemson: +112

New Mexico vs. Clemson Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

New Mexico

  • numberFire Ranking: 20th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 26th
  • KenPom Ranking: 23rd
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 41st
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 23rd
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 8th

Clemson

  • numberFire Ranking: 31st
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 35th
  • KenPom Ranking: 34th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 67th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 27th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 260th

New Mexico vs. Clemson Best Bets

New Mexico Moneyline (-134)

In this game, we get the rare scenario of an 11 seed being favored over a 6 seed.

All of the numbers point to this being correct. The New Mexico Lobos were in the middle of the pack in terms of record in the Mountain West but then went on to win the MWC Tournament to gain an automatic bid into the Big Dance.

Their advanced metrics suggested that they were better than their record indicated as they finished in the top 26 in all three of the ratings systems referenced above.

While New Mexico certainly enter this tournament on a high, the Clemson Tigers definitely do not. They lost in their first game of the ACC Tournament to Boston College, one of the weaker teams in the conference. It was the Tigers' third loss in the last four games.

This is an interesting stylistic matchup. The Lobos play at the eighth-fastest tempo in the country while the Tigers are down in 260th in tempo. If New Mexico can push the pace, that could put Clemson out of its comfort zone.

The Lobos also seem likely to have an edge when they have the ball, with their 23rd-ranked offense going up against the 67th-ranked D of Clemson.

numberFire's model likes New Mexico in this game, projecting the Lobos to win 58.6% of the time. The -134 moneyline implies win odds of 57.3%, creating some slight value on taking New Mexico to win.

New Mexico Over 76.5 Points (-115)

Since I think New Mexico will play well offensively, this line for their team total seems a bit off. They are favored by 2.5 points, yet Clemson's team total is set at 75.5.

The Lobos averaged 81.7 points this season. We know that they like to push the pace if they are playing their game.

We don't have to lay too big of a number here on New Mexico scoring an amount of points that is fewer than what they averaged all season. Bart Torvik projects New Mexico to score 78 points in this one.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.