NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting: Northwestern vs. UConn Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
NCAA Tournament Betting: Northwestern vs. UConn Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Northwestern vs. UConn Betting Odds

Date and Time: Sunday, March 24th at 7:45 p.m. ET

Spread: UConn -14.5 (-110)

Total: 135.5

Moneyline:

  • Northwestern: +860
  • UConn: -1600

Northwestern vs. UConn Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

Northwestern Wildcats

  • numberFire Ranking: 50th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 31st
  • KenPom Ranking: 46th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 72nd
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 30th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 342nd

Connecticut Huskies

  • numberFire Ranking: 3rd
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 2nd
  • KenPom Ranking: 1st
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 11th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 1st
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 329th

Northwestern vs. UConn Best Bet

Northwestern +14.5 (-110)

Can anyone stop the Connecticut Huskies?

After Yale pulled off an upset victory over Auburn, it's looking like UConn's path to the Final Four may be easier than originally intended. If the Huskies advance to the Sweet 16, they will get to play the winner of Yale vs. San Diego State.

But before UConn fans look ahead, focus needs to be dedicated to their meeting with the Northwestern Wildcats.

The Wildcats forced their way into overtime and an eventual win over Florida Atlantic on Friday. Can they manage a cover against UConn?

I think so.

UConn is a scary team. They tout +290 odds to win the NCAA Championship (shortest of any team) and can be found atop the ranks of whichever model you look at.

But there are a few reasons to believe the Wildcats could stick around and keep this game within 14 points once the final buzzer sounds.

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. UConn ranks 329th in tempo while Northwestern ranks 342nd in tempo. A small disparity in pace could be key in keeping the Wildcats within striking distance. It's easy to imagine UConn's first-ranked offense capitalizing on more possessions than not, but Northwestern's 30th-ranked offense can't be counted out, either.

Four players on Northwestern average at least 11.6 points per game, so they aren't reliant on just one or two players to feed them an offensive spark. But if we're looking for a Wildcat to take over this game, Boo Buie isn't a bad option. Buie averages 19.3 points per game and touts an 85.3% free-throw percentage and 44.1% three-point percentage.

Speaking of threes, Northwestern doesn't shoot a ton of them, ranking just 198th in three-point attempt rate. But if we're targeting a cover, threes will be important. UConn lets up the 47th-highest three-point attempt rate, so we should see the Wildcats put up above-average three-point attempts.

It makes sense that UConn gives up a high three-point rate considering they almost always force teams to fight back into games via threes. Luckily, Northwestern shoots the three-ball at the seventh-best clip in college basketball. They may be up for the challenge.

The Wildcats turn the ball over at the 7th-lowest rate and force turnovers at the 56th-highest rate. UConn ranks just 42nd and 224th in these regards, respectively.

Bart Torvik's model sees this game ending with a 73-63 UConn victory, while numberFire has the Huskies winning by a score of 71.54-65.39.

I'm satisfied with backing the spread, but I should note that Northwestern's +880 moneyline odds imply just a 10.2% win probability. Bart Torvik and numberFire, meanwhile, give Northwestern a 17.0% and 27.4% win chance, respectively.

Northwestern won big games this season against a 1-seeded Purdue team, as well as a 3-seeded Illinois team. It's scary to place any doubt in UConn, but if you're looking to call a major upset, I at least think there is some value in Northwestern's moneyline.

Northwestern vs. UConn Prop Bet

Ryan Langborg 3+ Made Threes (+146)

If we're looking for Northwestern to cover, they need to capitalize on that 47th-highest three-point rate that UConn gives up.

As mentioned, the Wildcats shoot the three-ball at one of the country's best percentages, so they aren't in a terrible spot to do just that.

Let's turn to Ryan Langborg, who could have a trio of triples in him this Sunday.

Langborg averages 2.2 three-point makes per game and shoots at a 41.3% clip from behind the arc. He went 3-for-8 from downtown in the first round of the tournament.

He played 41 out of 45 possible minutes in the first round, as well. And in 25 games where Langborg has played more than 28 minutes, he is draining at least three three-pointers at a 52.0% rate.

These +146 odds suggest just a 40.7% probability. I'm happy to get this prop at this price.


If you’re betting on any NCAA basketball action on March 24th, take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s Profit Boost Token! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more NCAA basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.