NBA Coach of the Year Odds: Mark Daigneault Leads at the Halfway Point

With at least 40 games in the books for every team, we are at the halfway point of the 2023-24 NBA season.

With half a season behind us and half a season still to come, the race for Coach of the Year (COTY) remains competitive. Two clear favorites have emerged, with odds of +125 and +250 – but there is still plenty of time for that to change.

Let's take a look at the current favorites for COTY, per the NBA Coach of the Year Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, as well as the coaches who could make their way up the odds’ table in the second half of the regular season.

Here are the latest odds for NBA Coach of the Year:

Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder (+125)

At the halfway point of the regular season, Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) head coach Mark Daigneault is the favorite. One glance at the NBA standings and it’s easy to see why.

After finishing last season 10th in the West with a 40-42 record, the Thunder currently sit in second with a record of 29-13. OKC is on pace for 58 wins this season -- 18 more than last season. If they reach that mark, it will be the third-most wins since the team was relocated in 2008, bested only by their 59 and 60-win seasons in 2013-14 and 2012-13.

In many ways, this season is the culmination of Thunder’s rebuild since then. In the decade since, besides reaching the conference finals in 2015-16, OKC has tried and failed to assemble a team that can reach those heights. Now, in the fourth season under Daigneault, they may finally be there.

The Thunder’s record is supported by their underlying metrics. Per Dunks & Threes, OKC ranks fourth in adjusted offense rating (aORTG) and sixth in adjusted defense rating (aDRTG), combining for an adjusted net rating (aNET) of +7.0 that ranks second. Other than the Boston Celtics, the Thunder are the only team that ranks inside the top six on both sides of the ball.

Adding to Daigneault’s resume, the Thunder have accomplished their 29 wins against a schedule of opponents that Dunks & Threes ranks as the seventh-most difficult. They have also done it with the second-youngest roster in the league. OKC also has a leading MVP candidate in superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has the third-best MVP odds (+330), per the NBA MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and the current favorite for Rookie of the Year, Chet Holmgren (-140).

Daigneault is a deserving favorite, and his resume for COTY, with half a season in the books, is incredibly strong.

Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves (+250)

One of the reasons that Daigneault isn’t a larger favorite is Chris Finch, who has put together an impressive season of his own in Minnesota. Together, Daigneault and Finch form a two-coach tier on top of the odds, with a large gap between themselves and the next-closest coach.

With 42 games played, the Minnesota Timberwolves sit on top of the West with a record of 30-12, one game better than OKC. They finished last season in eighth place with a record of 42-40, defeating the Thunder in the Play-In Tournament before losing to the Denver Nuggets in five games.

The Timberwolves 30 wins has them on pace for 60 this season. If they reach that mark, it would be the most in team history, topping their 58-win season in 2003-04. If they reach 50 wins, it would be the first time they’ve done so in two decades.

Minnesota’s underlying metrics also support their record but indicate that they are a less well-rounded side than the Thunder. The Timberwolves rank first in aDRTG by a significant margin over Boston in second, but rank just 18th in oRTG. Their aNET of +5.8 ranks fourth.

Like the Thunder, Minnesota has accomplished their record facing a difficult schedule. Per Dunks & Threes, the Timberwolves have faced the third-most difficult slate of opponents thus far.

The difference between Finch’s outlook and Daigneault’s may be the perceived talent of their rosters. While OKC has a young roster that is just starting to exceed expectations, Minnesota has the 11th-youngest roster and is coming off a season in which they failed to meet expectations following their trade for Rudy Gobert in the summer of 2022.

The Timberwolves have two established stars in Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns along with a budding mega star in Anthony Edwards. Daigneault appears to be doing more with a less established starting five. To counter that, Finch will likely, at a minimum, need to end the season more than a single game above the Thunder to win COTY.

Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers (+750)

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is in a tier of his own. At +750, he is well behind Daigneault and Finch and well above the next group of coaches – Boston's' Joe Mazzula (+1500) and Orlando’s Jamahl Mosley (+1600).

After missing the playoffs last season with a 35-47 record, the Pacers currently sit in seventh in the East with a record of 24-19. They are on pace for 46 wins, which would be their most since 2019-20 – the last time Indiana finished with a record above .500. They also made an impressive run to the inaugural In-Season Tournament finals, winning elimination games against the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.

Like their record, the Pacers’ underlying metrics are also a clear tier below the Thunder and Timberwolves. Indiana ranks second in aORTG but 27th in aDRTG. Their aNET of +0.4 ranks 14th. They have also faced a significantly easier schedule than Minnesota and OKC – sixth easiest per Dunks & Threes.

It all adds up to a resume for Carlisle that is clearly lacking compared to the two frontrunners. For him to win COTY, the Pacers will need to improve in the second half of the season.

The good news is, following their trade for Pascal Siakam, there are reasons to believe they can. With the move for Siakam, it is clear Indiana has left their rebuild phase and is making moves to win in the short-term, not the future.

With an offense that already ranks among the league’s best, the Pacers can make monumental strides if they improve on defense. With half the season still to come, there is time to do so.

Others

Following Carlisle, there is a sharp drop-off for COTY.

Joe Mazzulla (+1500) and the Celtics have the best record in the league and rank first in aNET (+9.5) by a significant margin over OKC in second. Their aNET is the highest since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (+11.0). This was expected for this Celtics’ roster though, and simply meeting expectations with an elite roster likely won’t be enough to win COTY.

Jamahl Mosley’s (+1600) and the Orlando Magic started the season hot, with a 13-5 record in October and November. Since then, they are 10-15. They remain on pace for 46 wins, which would be 11 more than last season and their most since 2010-11.

Tyronn Lue (+2100) and the Los Angeles Clippers have taken the opposite path. After starting 8-10 in October and November, they are 20-4 since and playing some of the best basketball in the league. Their aNET (+4.5) ranks sixth and they are on pace for 54 wins, 10 more than last season and their most since 2014-15.

The Utah Jazz have been on a similar trajectory under Will Hardy (+2300) this season. After going 6-13 in October and November, they went 8-6 in December and are 8-3 so far in January. They sit at 22-22 and are trending in the right direction in just the second year of their rebuild.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.