NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 3/6/24: A Pair of Totals Reign Supreme in the West

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets

Under 223 (-110)

The under has been a pretty reliable bet for the Los Angeles Clippers and the Houston Rockets; it is 36-24 for the Clippers and 33-26 for the Rockets. The under is also 7-3 over Los Angeles' last 10 games and 7-2-1 over Houston's previous 10. numberFire's daily game projections are even suggesting the under. This feels like a safe bet, but let's dive into the matchup.

First, let's start with the Rockets' defense. It boasts the seventh-best defensive rating, but L.A. will be a tough test with the fifth-best offensive rating. Fortunately, the Clippers' production has sharply dipped over their last two games at 97.5 points per game (PPG) -- compared to their season average of 117.2 PPG (11th-best).

Los Angeles, who has the third-best three-point percentage, has been held to under 30.0% from three in three of the last five games. Houston has a stingy perimeter defense with the third-best mark in opponent three-point percentage. The Clips' struggles from deep could continue, and the Rockets have an exceptional interior defense, allowing the ninth-fewest points in the paint.

With Houston touting the 7th-worst offensive rating and L.A. carrying the 13th-best defensive rating, this could seal a low-scoring contest. The Rockets have simply lacked efficiency for most of the season as they have the third-worst field goal percentage (FG%) and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). The Clippers have the 10th-best mark in opponent eFG%.

Perhaps the most important support is Los Angeles carrying the 10th-slowest pace while totaling the fewest possessions in the Association. The Clippers' offense is capable of erupting, but taking fewer shots against a solid defense makes this far less likely. The Rockets get plenty of looks with the eighth-most field goals per game, but the efficiency has simply not been good enough.

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors

Bucks +4 (-110)

At one point, it looked like the Golden State Warriors would fall well short of the postseason. After carrying a 7-3 record over the last 10 games, it could be time to re-evaluate that thought as the Warriors are -128 to make the playoffs when looking at FanDuel's NBA playoff odds. Golden State gets a chance to prove they are of postseason quality once again versus the Milwaukee Bucks, who are the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference while carrying a six-game winning streak.

Keep a close eye on the injury report leading up to this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed his third game of the season on Monday with an Achilles injury. The superstar forward is once again questionable for Wednesday's game. Giannis leads the team with a 33.2% usage rate, 30.8 PPG, and 11.3 rebounds per game (RPG). If the Bucks are without the Greek Freak, many could look to fade Milwaukee.

However, the Bucks come off a win over the Clippers as two-point underdogs. In Giannis' absence, Damian Lillard (24.5 PPG) stepped up with 41 points while Bobby Portis (13.1 PPG) logged 28 points. Lillard's usage rate spikes to 36.2% when Antetokounmpo is off of the court. For reference, Dame's usage rate is 28.2% on the season.

We could see another big workload for Lillard tonight, and he could flourish as the Warriors have the 13th-worst defensive rating. Golden State's perimeter defense has been a flaw, giving up the sixth-most three-point shots. Where does Dame shine? You guessed it -- from three-point land with a team-best 8.5 attempts per contest.

Additionally, Milwaukee has the seventh-best mark in opponent three-point percentage while giving up the ninth-fewest three-point makes per game. This should certainly be a key since the Warriors attempt the third-most shots from beyond the arc.

The Bucks have covered four consecutive games on the road. I believe they will pull it off once again, with or without Giannis.

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers

Over 239 (-112)

A pair of potential playoff teams in the Western Conference meet as the Sacramento Kings are visiting the Los Angeles Lakers. According to FanDuel's NBA playoff odds, the Kings are -280 to make the postseason while the Lakers are -134.

Los Angeles has looked the part over the last 10 games with a 7-3 record. The offense has shined during the stretch, posting 122.8 PPG paired with a 52.8 FG%. The Lake Show has been blistering from deep, as well, converting 40.5% of their three-point shots.

Sacramento has the 11th-worst defensive rating, suggesting another solid scoring outing for the Lakers. This is only further emphasized with the Kings giving up the 10th-most three-point makes while touting the worst mark in opponent three-point percentage. The paint defense is also vulnerable, surrendering the 15th-most points. This area should be circled, for L.A. averages the second-most points in the paint.

On the other side of the court, Sacramento shoots the fourth-most threes, and the Lakers give up the third-most attempts from deep. The efficiency has still been there for the Kings; they have cashed in 36.9% of their threes over the last six contests, on par with their season average of 37.0%. Sacramento also totals the eighth-most PPG at 118.1.

Each offense seems poised for good games; I'm backing the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.