NBA Betting Picks for Friday 2/23/24: Will the Heat End the Pelicans' Hot Streak?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

5mo

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans

Heat +3.5 (-112)
Under 219 (-108)

The Miami Heat -- who are +140 to participate in the Play-In Tournament, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds -- are finally making some progress up the Eastern Conference standings as they are 6-2 over their last eight games while going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in that time. Miami is in the midst of a six-game roadtrip, and today they will be at the New Orleans Pelicans.

While the Pelicans are 8-2 over their last 10 and are on a four-game winning streak, they have not found the same kind of success ATS. In fact, they are 2-3 ATS over the previous five contests. Considering the Heat's recent hot streak, I like Miami to come up with another cover. Let's dive into the matchup.

First off, New Orleans could be without a major player in Brandon Ingram as he is listed as day-to-day and missed Thursday's game with an illness. Ingram ranks second on the team with 21.4 points per game (PPG) and a 27.8% usage rate (second-highest on the team). Still, the Pelicans managed to total 127 points in their last game without Ingram. Miami's challenge may be finding a way to slow this offense, which has averaged 130.0 PPG over the last two contests.

The Heat are equipped to do it as they tout the ninth-best defensive rating in the league and have held opponents to only 102.6 PPG over their last eight games. The Pelicans mostly look to attack the rim, netting the 12th-most points in the paint per game while averaging the 10th-fewest three-point attempts. Miami has the answer yet again as they surrender the sixth-fewest points in the paint.

On the other side of the court, New Orleans gives up the second-most three-point attempts. The Heat can expose this weakness as they have the 11th-best three-point percentage, and their volume has increased over the last four games -- 38.3 shots per game in that time (compared to 33.5 on the season).

With Miami's ability to knockdown the three-ball and an exceptional interior defense. I like their chances of coming up with the cover.

In line with numberFire's game projections, I'm also backing the under for this game. The under is 8-2 over the Heat's last 10 games thanks to their red-hot defense. Plus, Miami has reached 120 points only twice over the last 10 contests. Both squads are also among the top seven teams in the NBA in fewest field goal attempts per game.

Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors

Over 228.5 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets -- who own the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 14-41 -- have finally found some success in their ongoing four-game winning streak. The offense, which has the fourth-worst rating for the year, has shown signs of life during this run, scoring 115.6 PPG while shooting 50.7% from the field and 42.4% from three.

Friday's opponent, the Golden State Warriors, have the 11th-worst defensive rating, meaning Charlotte could keep scorching the nets. The Warriors' perimeter defense allows the eighth-most three-point shots per game. They've surrendered even more attempts over the last five games, with opponent shooting an average of 37.6 threes each contest. The Hornets could be looking to follow the Utah Jazz's blueprint; Utah made 22 of 49 threes (44.9%) on February 15th against Golden State.

We should certainly expect some scoring from the Warriors, too, as they boast the seventh-best offensive rating and have totaled 125.7 PPG over their last 10 games. This isn't rocket science; Charlotte has the worst defensive rating in the Association. While the Hornets have given up only 103.5 PPG during their winning streak. I have a hard time envisioning Charlotte slowing down the Dubs tonight.

Golden State has continued to put up points in bulk, and they are shooting a blistering 43.5% from three over their last seven games. The Hornets carry alarming defensive stats in almost every category, including the seventh-most three-point attempts allowed while having the third-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage.

Charlotte has carried exceptional shooting splits in recent games and are facing a weak defense. On the other side, the Warriors seem poised to stay red-hot from beyond the arc. Give me the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.