NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/10/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/10/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

Over 224 (-110)
Gary Harris Over 7.5 Points (-110)

This is one of the lowest totals I've seen in an Indiana Pacers game all season, and I'm not sure the Orlando Magic's defense is worthy of such an adjustment.

Orlando holds the second-slowest pace in the NBA over their last 15 games, which is the true jeopardy to this over. When it comes to efficiency, the Magic's eight-ranked defensive rating will meet its match with Indiana's seventh-ranked offensive rating.

The Pacers are as advertised when leading the NBA in points per game. Over their last 15, they're fifth in pace in addition to the excellent oRTG, and their 24th-ranked dRTG in the same stretch will help the Magic keep pace.

numberFire's model expects this game to exceed this point total 63.7% of the time.

When expecting points, Gary Harris might be a bit undervalued to score. Since re-entering the starting lineup, the Magic have played through blowouts in all three games, so it's tough to tell what his true role would be in a competitive game.

If he can encroach 30 minutes, this matchup should be a good one for him. The Pacers are allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards in their last 15 games (25.7).

FanDuel Research's NBA projections like Harris to contribute a bit more than this today, expecting 8.5 points in 24.1 minutes.

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings

Rockets +6.5 (-108)

Who are the Sacramento Kings to lay nearly seven points to anybody?

Sacramento has setbacks to the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons in a 15-game stretch where they've posted a -1.2 net rating, so even while the Houston Rockets have dipped considerably from their slow start, they can certainly keep things tight. Houston's net rating is -4.7 in their last 15 games.

The Kings are also 11-17 against the spread (ATS) at home with the 10th-worst net rating at home (+0.4) in the NBA this season. This has been a money spot to fade all season.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, 61% of the tickets and 68% of the money are laying the points with Sacramento, who I'd even admit are the better team. numberFire is in favor of fading the public, though, expecting Houston to cover 62.7% of the time.

New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks

Hawks +6.5 (-108)
Zion Williamson Under 23.5 Points (-120)

I'm extremely surprised that, in a similar trend, 64% of the tickets and 81% (!) of the money is behind the New Orleans Pelicans at FanDuel tonight.

Road NBA favorites are never a tremendous ATS spot, and that's especially true in the ATL. The Atlanta Hawks have a +7.1 home net rating in their last 15 games (eighth-best in basketball) in a stretch that's included plenty of action sans Trae Young.

New Orleans' +8.8 road net rating ranks second in the NBA during the same stretch, which is why I believe most have lept to support them today. They might just be undervaluing the Hawks a touch, and nF agrees. The model believes Atlanta covers 61.0% of the time at home tonight.

Stopping Zion Williamson would go a long way to doing so, and this points prop might be just a bit too high for the Pels' big man. Williamson hasn't eclipsed 23 points in seven straight games (despite being on the number exactly in three), and Atlanta has allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to power forwards in their last 15 games (20.1).

FDR's projections have Mt. Zion pegged for just 20.8 points tonight, so there is plenty of wiggle room at this price.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers

Timberwolves ML (+100)
Timberwolves Team Total Over 110.5 (-112)

We'll have to see how the Minnesota Timberwolves adjust to life without Karl-Anthony Towns, but a Friday road loss in overtime to the Cleveland Cavaliers isn't exactly a shameful first result.

Personally, they've been so much better than the Los Angeles Lakers that I'm willing to roll the dice on the Towns-less version in Hollywood on the night of the Oscars. Minnesota's +11.7 road net rating in their past 15 games is the one mark better than New Orleans', and the Lakers +3.0 home ret rating in this stretch still lags well behind.

numberFire's model agrees, pegging a 56.4% chance the T-Wolves win tonight as a road underdog. The model also has Minnesota projected for 114.0 median points in the contest, so I'm adding on their team total.

Minnesota's D is no joke, so I want to avoid the game total, but the Lakers figure to be a poor defensive challenge for the Wolves. Over their last 15 games, L.A. is 11th in pace and 23rd in dRTG, posing a huge upgrade from normal conditions.

The Lake Show have hit the over in 53.0% of their games this season (third-highest clip in the NBA), and that should translate to another good scoring environment for their Sunday foe.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.