NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/23/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/23/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic

Over 218.0 (-110)
Franz Wagner 2+ Threes Made (+135)

The Orlando Magic are no strangers to a low total, but this one might be a bit too low.

Orlando's 114.6 offensive rating in games where Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have both played is decent, and the Sacramento Kings bring in a relevant offensive rating of 117.2 in games where their key starters all go. Kevin Huerter is out tonight with a shoulder issue, but Malik Monk seeing a boost in playing time helps Sacramento's scoring.

DRatings believes this median total to be 225.6 points -- a sentiment numberFire's model echoes at 224.5. Massey Ratings also projects this game to exceed its total 56.2% of the time.

If heightened scoring is on the way, I believe the aforementioned Wagner can contribute from deep. It's scary to back a guy shooting 16.7% from the three-point line in March, but he's still attempting 3.6 per game, and his season-long rate of makes (29.1%) inspires more hope.

The Kings ceded the fourth-most makes from deep per game to opposing small forwards (3.0), so it's possible Wagner can get open to knock down a pair. FanDuel Research's NBA projections expect 1.6 threes at a median from Franz, so the plus money here isn't a bad look.

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

Hornets Team Total Over 102.5 Points (-105)
Tre Mann Over 17.5 Points and Assists (-102)

If you expected the Atlanta Hawks' defense to pick up in the wake of Trae Young's absence, you'd be incorrect.

Atlanta has a 122.0 defensive rating in games without Young and Saddiq Bey both out of the lineup, which is even worse than their 118.9 rating for the season. The Charlotte Hornets' offense has been poor with its relevant pieces after the trade deadline (105.2 rating), but this is a great matchup for them to break out. An expected pace of 96.4 in this game from these team's relevant samples isn't shabby for a total hovering around 100 points, either.

Most of our analytical friends think Charlotte destroys this total against the Hawks. numberFire has their median point total projected at 115.0, DRatings sits at 108.3, and Massey expects 109.0 median points. It's just tough to plug your nose and back a poor scoring team.

If they are scoring, expect Tre Mann -- a surprise in the Hornets' backcourt since coming over from the Oklahoma City Thunder -- to have a nice evening. Mann has posted 14.1 points and 5.4 assists per 36 minutes since joining the club, and the Hawks are a sublime matchup. They've let up the most points and fifth-most assists to shooting guards -- Mann's real role next to distributor Vasilije Micic -- this year.

FDR projects Mann for 13.8 points and 4.5 assists in 33.0 minutes on Saturday.

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs

Over 232 (-108)
Bradley Beal Over 28.5 Points, Assists, and Rebounds (-102)

To the surprise of no one given their name value, the Phoenix Suns are a shootout machine.

Phoenix has a 122.4 offensive rating in games where all of their core four parts (the All-Star trio plus Jusuf Nurkic) are active. That would be the best mark in the NBA if extrapolated to the whole season. It's hard to see the San Antonio Spurs' 116.6 defensive rating (seventh-worst in the Association) blanketing them.

Yet, at the same time, Phoenix's core four have let up a 118.2 defensive rating themselves in this sample. So, the Spurs -- with Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell not expected to sit at present -- can score, too.

DRatings has this median total at 233.6, and nF (233.1) isn't far behind. I think the over is the side to be on behind Phoenix's fully healthy crew.

That includes Bradley Beal, who seems to -- on paper -- have a chance at one of his better efforts in a disappointing year. The Spurs allow the eighth-most points, second-most rebounds, and most assists to shooting guards.

The combo stats have plagued San Antonio all season, and that's reflected in Beal's projection at FanDuel Research. They're expecting 20.0 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.3 rebounds for the guard. With this prop ostensibly sitting at even money, a 29.3 PRA projection will absolutely suffice.

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Rockets -11 (-112)

Though against conventional wisdom, the Houston Rockets have a growing trend that they're better with Alperen Sengun off the floor.

Across exactly 600 possessions in games without their center, Houston has a +9.9 net rating. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green have transformed H-Town into one of the league's best offensive ratings (122.0) in this sample.

Therefore, they're in a great spot at home to dismantle the ailing Utah Jazz. Utah's splits in games without Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson show a -7.0 net rating.

The historical, predictive models are having a tough time with these stark difference in split, but my personal model has Houston listed as a -21.0 point favorite using these relevant samples, but some of that might be due to their poor level of competition during this Sengun-less period. Nonetheless, this large spread might still hold quite a bit of value.

There's a definite "Pros vs. Joes" split at FanDuel, and I believe this is why. 58% of spread bets are behind the Jazz, but 66% of the money is backing a Rockets blowout.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.