NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/18/23
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
Hornets +7.0 (-106)
He led the team in net rating (+2.1) in 2021-22 and didn't seem limited in Friday's debut, logging 33 minutes and dropping 17 points. Bridges' return is certainly welcomed by Charlotte offensively as they've been without Brandon Miller, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward due to various injuries at some point this week.
That's one side of taking this spread, and the other is that I don't view the New York Knicks having the firepower to issue a blowout on the road. They've got a decent +2.8 net rating on the road, but they're 4-3 away from Madison Square Garden straight up (SU). Their offensive rating away from home (112.1) isn't that of a world-crusher, either.
I've been fading Charlotte all season, but Bridges' two-way capability does mean a lot to their group. This is a prime spot to target that hypothesis before their results improve.
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
Bulls ML (+120)
Duncan Robinson Under 15.5 Points (-111)
The Miami Heat's win streak was snapped at seven on Thursday, and I just expect a much worse team than the 8-4 squad at present -- and so do their underlying peripherals.
During the streak, Miami had a 55.4 eFG%; that's 10th-best in the NBA in that time frame. This is a continuation of their trend from last year's NBA Finals run; when the shots fall, everything is great, but they generate so much offense from the perimeter that a cold shooting night is largely a death sentence.
This spread might come as a surprise to some, but Miami has a -1.3 net rating away from home, and the Chicago Bulls have a -0.4 net rating in their building. I'll pretty much only support them in Chitown given a -10.1 net rating (fourth-worst in the NBA) away from home.
numberFire's model projects the Bulls to win 55.3% of the time, so their moneyline is showing quite a bit of value in this spot.
If Miami's shots aren't falling to lose outright, it probably correlates well with a not-so-monstrous game from Duncan Robinson, their two guard in Tyler Herro's stead. Robinson's points prop is at 15.5, which seems kind of nuts, but he's topped this in three straight games behind 14-for-27 (51.9%) shooting from deep.
We all know that's not sustainable, and Chicago surrenders the sixth-fewest points per game to shooting guards (20.6) themselves. Jackpot.
nF projects Robinson for just 13.0 points overall at his median shooting rates, which provides a lot of wiggle room to fade his hot shooting.
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
Over 246.5 (-110)
Brook Lopez Over 11.5 Points (+102)
Grant Williams Over 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
Expecting well north of 250 points in Milwaukee tonight, I finally get to jump on what should be a public over.
These two teams are exceptional candidates for one. The Dallas Mavericks have the sixth-worst defensive rating in the NBA (116.2), and the Milwaukee Bucks -- stunningly -- aren't far behind with the 10th-worst mark (114.2). A drop in defense was expected from Jrue Holiday to Damian Lillard, but even this steep of a drop is wild.
Both also play extremely fast, too. Dallas is tied for the league's fourth-highest pace factor (104.2), and the Bucks are ninth (103.4) themselves. I'm not sure there are two better playoff-caliber teams to match up for an over than these two.
If we're expecting points, props should be a full-go, so I'll shine a light on two unheralded spots.
Brook Lopez always comes with a risk to get matched off the floor, but if he can get decent playing time, this prop should cash. Lopez averages 13.3 points per 36 minutes, and the matchup couldn't get much better here. The Mavs allow the fourth-most points per game to centers in the NBA (25.4).
As for the Mavericks, this is the right spot for Grant Williams to get going. He's only averaging 11.2 points and 3.4 rebounds per game this season despite 28.9 minutes per game on the floor. Milwaukee's defensive struggles have been most evident at the four spot, allowing the fifth-most rebounds (11.2) and sixth-most threes (2.6) per game to power forwards. That's exactly Williams' game.
numberFire's projections have Lopez expected to finish with 13.3 points and Williams to collect 13.5 total points and boards -- and all of these correlate together.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
Grizzlies -3.0 (-110)
Desmond Bane Over 33.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
Yes, both of these teams are bad, but only one of them was expected to be this bad.
The Memphis Grizzlies are without Ja Morant and Marcus Smart, and they have a -9.4 net rating with those two off the floor this season. That's been their primary issue most of the season, but even with that known, they still have a significantly better team than the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio has a league-worst -13.1 net rating this season, and things aren't getting better. They blew a 22-point lead to still lose by 8 points against the Sacramento Kings last night, so they'll have tired legs for this one. Memphis last played Thursday.
69% of the tickets at FanDuel Sportsbook are backing Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs to blindly fade this Grizzlies squad, but the contrarian road favorite still probably has more life in this spot. San Antonio just can't stop a nosebleed.
With that in mind, a big night for Desmond Bane is likely the life raft for Memphis as it was on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers. Bane dropped 27 points in that effort, and he's got a great chance to put up points when the Spurs are allowing the most points per game (25.4) and second-most rebounds per game (8.0) to opposing shooting guards.
numberFire's model expect the Grizzlies to cover the spread 70.4% of the time tonight, and Bane is projected for 33.7 total points and rebounds. I'll take it if the public is betting on...the worst team in the NBA.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.