NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Saturday 3/2/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Saturday 3/2/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today? And who should we build around in daily fantasy?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets

Over 218.5 (-110)

Without Trae Young (finger) but with Dejounte Murray in eight games this season, the Atlanta Hawks are 4-4 overall with a net rating of -1.8 when removing low-leverage possessions (via PBPStats). However, that split is still tied to a solid 114.0 offensive rating (and -- naturally -- a 115.8 defensive rating).

The total is down for a reason. Hawks games in this split have averaged 227.5 total points (versus 246.2 points in games out of the split).

Adjusting the Brooklyn Nets' rotation for current health and removing low-leverage possessions, their offensive rating is 116.5. That gives us two healthy offenses in action here.

numberFire's model loves the over and projects more than 230.0 points.

This is a rematch of a game from February 29th, each team's most recent game. The Hawks won that one 124-97 for a point total of 221.0 points.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers

Over 227.0 (-110)

This is a marquee game on ABC tonight at 8:30 p.m. Eastern, and we could see a good amount of scoring.

Each team has a relevant offensive rating of at least 115.8 when accounting for injuries (assuming no Jamal Murray), and the Denver Nuggets' mark is a 121.0 with Murray and others healthy.

We know Denver plays slow by preference, yet the elevated offensive efficiency on both sides here aligns well for scoring.

Yes, these two teams have combined for 226 and 220 points in their two prior meetings, but those featured weaker-than-usual three-point percentages and/or low free throw volume to fall just short of tonight's total.

numberFire's model is projecting 230.0 points for this meeting.

NBA Prop Bets

D'Angelo Russell Under 2.5 Made Threes (+106)

I know this one is counter to the overall over in this game, but the Nuggets are the second-best team in the NBA at limiting three-point attempts per game this season.

In two prior matchups with Denver, D'Angelo Russell has averaged 2.0 makes on 5.0 attempts per game from beyond the arc. In all other games, Russell has averaged 2.7 makes on 6.5 attempts.

In eight games against teams that allow a bottom-five three-point rate (by attempts per game), Russell has averaged 2.1 makes on 5.9 attempts. The volume should drop, making this plus-money prop intriguing.

Anfernee Simons Under 29.5 Points + Assists (-125)

The total here is low (209.0 points), and that doesn't lend itself to an abundance of points and assists for Anfernee Simons against the Memphis Grizzlies.

numberFire is projecting Simons for 22.1 points and 5.0 assists for a total of 27.1 combined points and assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers have played just four games with totals under 215.0 points this season, and in those matchups, Simons has averaged 15.8 points and 4.3 assists (20.1 combined).

Expanding that to 10 games with totals under 220.0, he's averaging 25.6 P+A.

Kevin Durant Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

There is some blowout risk for tonight's game between the Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets. However, in eight games in which the Suns have been favored by at least 7.0 this season (they're favored by 9.5 tonight), Kevin Durant has averaged 28.6 points and 4.5 rebounds for an average of 33.1 combined points and rebounds.

numberFire's model is projecting Durant for 24.9 points and 6.4 rebounds for a total of 31.4 combined points and rebounds.

In an earlier meeting against Houston with Phoenix favored by 8.5, Durant racked up 24 points and 7 rebounds over 40.4 minutes and 19 shot attempts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.