NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Fresh From Florida 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Fresh From Florida 250

Looking at this weekend's forecast at Daytona, we could be in for a wet one.

Rain is very likely both Saturday and Sunday, threatening to push back the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series races from their original time slots.

But Friday night looks ripe for racing. And the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series can hold us over until the storm passes.

They have their season-opener scheduled for that night in the Fresh From Florida 250. It's a pretty tight field with no driver shorter than +850 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds.

My simulations see things pretty similarly as nobody's win odds hit the 9% mark. Here's the full list. Only the top 36 drivers in my model were included as only 36 drivers make the show, so Mason Maggio, Jennifer Jo Cobb, Keith McGee, and Bryan Dauzat were excluded.

Win Sims
Sim T3
Sim T5
Corey Heim8.8%20.9%30.5%
Christian Eckes8.3%21.5%31.3%
Ben Rhodes8.1%20.6%29.8%
Corey LaJoie7.7%19.8%29.8%
Nick Sanchez6.8%17.8%27.3%
Ty Majeski6.2%16.8%26.4%
Tyler Ankrum6.1%16.7%25.2%
View Full Table

My numbers are pretty much in lock step with FanDuel's. Thus, there's not a ton of value to be had at the moment.

The one driver worth digging into is Tyler Ankrum (+2000).

This will be Ankrum's debut with his new team, McAnally Hilgemann Racing, which is likely an equipment upgrade for him. He spent the past two years with Hattori Racing, which wasn't a bad team, but they weren't pushing for wins on speed-centric tracks. McAnally Hilgemann did last year with Christian Eckes.

Even without top-end speed, Ankrum has run well on superspeedways. He has had a top-10 average running position in four of six pack races since the start of 2022. That includes last year's Daytona race, where Ankrum led 15 laps en route to a seventh-place finish.

Ankrum's crash rate on superspeedways is high, which can be a concern. But there's plenty of variance involved in that, and a good chunk of those races came while he was still a teenager. With this being Ankrum's age-23 season, you can better tolerate some lumps in the past.

Ankrum's implied odds at +2000 are 4.8%. My model has him in victory lane 6.1% of the time. He's going to break through soon, and with better equipment under him now, I wouldn't be shocked if that break through comes Friday night.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Friday night? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.