MLB

MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Braves Win in 2024?

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Braves Win in 2024?

The Atlanta Braves had the most wins in the league last year and have all the talent to make it happen again.

After a record-breaking regular season in 2023, the Braves are looking for redemption after being axed in the National League Division Series (NLDS). Part of that redemption should come with another impressive regular season -- but how impressive will it be? That's what we're going to find out. The win total they're set for expects them to do pretty well once again.

What is the Atlanta Braves' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Braves' win total is listed at 101.5.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Atlanta this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Atlanta Braves Win Total Odds

Atlanta Braves Over/Under 101.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why Braves Could Win Over 101.5 Games (-105)

The Braves won 104 games last season. All they need to do is win 102 this season to hit the over on their win total.

For Atlanta, it all starts with the lineup they've put together. That's where the records were set and there's no reason to believe this offense can drive this team to greatness once again. Ronald Acuna Jr. will try to follow up his National League MVP season with an encore. Considering he put together the first 40-40 season since 2006, it's not going to be easy. The lineup also features Matt Olson and Austin Riley, who should both also compete for the MVP award.

Overall, the Braves offense led the league in wOBA (.359), home runs (307), ISO (.225), and wRC+ (125) -- by a lot in each category. Reaching those heights will be difficult, but when you bring back nearly an identical lineup, there's no reason to doubt what this team can do.

The craziest part about the Braves last season is that their pitching was as strong as it was without one of their top pitchers for half the season. Max Fried missed half the season due to injury, but Spencer Strider managed to lock things down from the start. They ranked eighth with a 4.03 SIERA and fourth in strikeout rate (24.7%). There's a chance for them to improve on these numbers with a revamped rotation that will include a fully healthy Fried.

Atlanta's biggest addition in the offseason was Chris Sale. Health hasn't been on the side of the starter for a few seasons now, but he's already looked good in spring training and could be one of the best moves of the offseason as he slots in as their No. 3 starter. He can play a big part in getting the Braves over 101.5 wins.

numberFire has the Braves ranked as the second-best team heading into the season with a 1.23 nERD while also projecting them for an impressive 108 wins. FanGraphs projects the Braves to finish with the most wins in the majors, but the number sits at just 97 wins compared to numberFire.

Why Braves Could Win Under 101.5 Games (-115)

There's likely to be some negative regression with this offense, which can be a big reason for this team falling under 101.5 wins when it's all said and done.

Last season, this lineup had five hitters who smacked 30-plus home runs and seven in total that hit more than 20. That's a number that is nearly unmatchable considering they tied the all-time mark for team homers. The Braves averaged 5.85 runs per game last season, totaling a league-lead 947 on the year. FanGraphs is projecting that to go down at least a little bit, coming in with 866.7 projected runs on 5.35 runs per game. The projection still would have Atlanta leading the majors, but still, negative regression has to be coming for the video-game-like stats.

Another reason that the Braves could hit under 101.5 games comes with their history.

After finishing 2023 with 104 wins, it marked the most wins they have had in a season since 1998. To take it one step further, Atlanta has only gone over 101.5 wins once since 2000 with that being just a year ago. The reality is that the Braves still play in a tough division.

A division that includes a Philadelphia Phillies team that has had their number, a Miami Marlins squad that made the playoffs last year, the New York Mets who may surprise with less expectations, and the bad Washington Nationals. The NL East has been as big a reason as any for the Braves staying below that mark since 2000, and it could prove to be the reason it happens again this year.

Even with all the possibilities of negative regression, their history, and a division that isn't easy by any stretch, I'm more likely to side with them going over 101.5 than not. Their team is as talented as any -- Los Angeles Dodgers included -- and they have the chemistry to make the run back leading the league in wins.

If you're betting in this market, the over looks like the move with this team.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.