MLB

MLB SGP Bets to Target: Thursday 7/11/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
MLB SGP Bets to Target: Thursday 7/11/24

Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB SGP Bets for Thursday 7/11/24

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner to Record an RBI (+120)
Brandon Marsh to Record a Run (-105)

Combined Odds: +320

Hitting out of the two-hole for the Philadelphia Phillies hasn't prevented Trea Turner from racking up RBIs recently. Aside from posting two-plus hits in six of his last nine contests, Turner has tallied at least one RBI in six of his last nine appearances, totaling 16 RBIs in that span.

Turner is sporting a .389 wOBA, 153 wRC+, and .161 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season, and Landon Knack of the Los Angeles Dodgers is showing reverse splits on the mound. Knack is giving up a .328 wOBA and 2.70 HR/9 to righties, compared to a .259 wOBA and 1.00 HR/9 to lefties through seven starts.

With Knack ranking in the first percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 MPH), sixth percentile in barrel rate (11.3%), and second percentile in hard-hit rate (48.5%), Turner is being given +310 odds to hit a home run.

Even though right-handed hitters are having more success against Knack, Brandon Marsh has a solid matchup on Thursday. Along with Marsh totaling four runs in his last two games, he's logging a .220 ISO or higher and a .402 wOBA or higher versus Knack's two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and changeup) against left-handed batters.

There's a chance Marsh will be on base for one of Rafael Marchan, Kyle Schwarber, or even Turner in hopes to score a run. Being that the weather is warm and winds are blowing to right at Citizens Bank Park, it's worth mentioning that Marsh has +500 odds to hit a home run.

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros

Roddery Munoz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Jake Bloss Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Jon Singleton to Record a Hit (-145)

Combined Odds: +308

Roddery Munoz flashed strikeout upside early in the season for the Miami Marlins, but he's tailed off since. After accruing five-plus Ks in four of his first five starts this season, Munoz has failed to achieve five-plus Ks in each of his last three outings.

The matchup is far from ideal for Munoz as the Houston Astros boast the eighth-best wOBA (.333), ninth-best wRC+ (117), and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (18.7%) against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Munoz is also in the 3rd percentile in xERA (6.05), 10th percentile in walk rate (12.3%), 1st percentile in barrel rate (13.1%), and 15th percentile in hard-hit rate (43.8%) -- which has led to him pitching fewer than six innings in five of his eight starts.

On the other hand, Jake Bloss seemingly has a fantastic matchup on the mound for the Astros. The Marlins have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, but Bloss is making his first start since June 21 due to a shoulder injury.

Bloss could be on a pitch count on Thursday after reaching just 55 pitches in his lone rehab appearance. FanDuel Research's MLB projections have Munoz posting only 4.1 strikeouts while Bloss is forecasted to finish with 3.62 strikeouts.

While Jon Singleton hasn't been a consistent hitter this year, Munoz is permitting a .471 wOBA, 1.78 WHIP, and 4.58 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. Singleton has also gotten at least one hit in 10 of his last 12 contests, and he could hit higher in the order if Yordan Alvarez is forced to miss Thursday's game.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Jarred Kelenic to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Marcell Ozuna to Record an RBI (+135)

Combined Odds: +351

Brandon Pfaadt has certainly looked better in recent starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the Atlanta Braves have a couple of bats who can do damage versus right-handed pitching. On the season, Pfaadt is giving up a .349 wOBA, 1.53 WHIP, and just a 17.3% strikeout rate when facing left-handed hitters.

Provided that information, Jarred Kelenic could have a notable performance out of the leadoff spot. Kelenic has two-plus bases in three of his last five appearances, and he's registering a solid .342 wOBA, 121 wRC+, and .194 ISO versus right-handed pitchers.

Even with Pfaadt posting worse numbers against lefties than righties, Marcell Ozuna is one of the hottest hitters in baseball this season. Ozuna has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last six games -- totaling eight RBIs in that span -- while having the third-most RBIs (75) in all of baseball.

Additionally, Ozuna is putting up a .380 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and .283 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2024. Ahead of Thursday's showdown, Ozuna has +350 odds to hit a home run while Kelenic has +470 odds in the same market.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.