MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/30/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/30/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (+100)

In MLB's modern era, we are privy to interleague baseball all throughout the season, so we may as well take advantage of some of these more rare matchups. For Tuesday, that pertains to the Washington Nationals (14-14) at Texas Rangers (15-14).

These sides will meet at Globe Life Field, which is still baseball's newest venue. Notably, this stadium in Arlington has been favorable to hitters since opening in 2020. Per Baseball Savant, the Rangers' building has a top-five Park Factor score (104).

The projected starters for the this contest are Jon Gray and lefty MacKenzie Gore. With everything considered, I like over 8.5 runs between the Rangers and Nats at even money (+100 odds).

Gore has been solid in 2024 (3.23 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA)), but he'll have a tough test against Texas. As a unit, the Rangers currently showcase a top-10 team OPS (.718). Additionally, they are scoring 4.55 runs per game. Across the way, Gray has displayed mixed results in 2024. His 2.92 ERA is stellar but he also shows a career-high 47.8% Statcast hard-hit rate; contact like that could be dangerous for him at home.

According to numberFire, Texas is projected to win by a score of 5.64-4.40 on Tuesday. Using their model, that equates to a 62.97% winning likelihood for the over. Simply, I will be rooting for the bats to boom in Arlington.

Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Braves Moneyline (-122)

Staying with the interleague theme, I also have my eye on a bid in the Emerald City. For a clash of styles, let's see what the Atlanta Braves (19-8) at Seattle Mariners (16-13) can offer.

This series pits together the current leaders of the NL East and AL West, respectively. Tuesday will be the second of a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. For Monday's affair, the Braves took a combined no-hitter into the eighth inning before surrendering a walk-off home run to Mitch Garver in the ninth. That's as tough as it gets, but that's baseball.

In Game 2, the probable pitchers are righties Reynaldo Lopez and Luis Castillo. Naturally, Castillo is the more notable name here, but his current 1.30 WHIP is a little high for him. As for Lopez, he's allowed only two earned runs through 25.0 innings pitched in 2024.

After last night's heartbreaker, I like Atlanta to bounce back with an outright victory on Tuesday. For a team as dominant as the Braves, it can be rare to see them priced as low as -122 on the moneyline. I'll bite!

Entering Tuesday, Atlanta owns MLB's best record while boasting the second-highest team OPS (.786). From there, the Braves operate with a .352 wOBA while Seattle is at .293 in that same category.

Even with Ronald Acuna Jr. not enjoying the same level of success compared to 2023, fellow Atlanta sluggers Marcell Ozuna (1.055 OPS) and Ozzie Albies (.513 SLG) are perpetuating the offense. To compound confidence, the Braves have yet to lose back-to-back games this season. Also, numberFire's MLB game projections leave Atlanta with a 51.5% chance to win on the road tonight.

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-120)

Out at Petco Park, I think we have an advantageous opportunity against a lowly game total. True, the ballpark in San Diego's Gaslamp Quarter is known as a pitcher's venue. However, between the Cincinnati Reds (16-13)and San Diego Padres (14-18), I think we can go over 7.5 runs (-120 odds).

The starting hurlers in this contest are Nick Martinez and Yu Darvish. Neither has recorded a win yet in 2024, but that is not necessarily indicative of their stuff. Darvish has been respectable, showing a 4.34 SIERA at the moment, but he's also tagged with a 50.0% Statcast hard-hit rate. For Martinez, he'll be facing his former team while carrying a 5.48 ERA.

Regardless of the pitching in this National League contest, the offenses here will likely steal the show. In 2024, the Reds have output 4.97 runs per game. Across the diamond, San Diego has produced 4.72 runs per game. Both of those figures rank amongst the top-eight scoring rates in MLB.

Given the many sluggers in this contest, I am confident the Reds and Friars will combine for eight or more runs on Tuesday. Cincy stars Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Will Benson are all legit power threats. For San Diego, the same can be said about Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth -- who my colleague Tom Vecchio likes for a home run prop tonight -- and Manny Machado.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.