MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+110)

In a battle between two AL East rivals, the road team in today's matchup deserves to be favored when analyzing the advantage the Rays may have on the mound on Sunday afternoon.

Taking the hill for Tampa Bay, Aaron Civale has displayed impressive and improved form with his new team in 23.0 innings, accounting for a 3.12 xFIP and an elevated 29.2% K-rate while New York's Luis Gil has produced troubling advanced metrics (4.68 xFIP) due to his inconsistent command (23.0% walk rate). Even when further diving into each pitcher's career statistics, we can feel confident Civale is overall the better pitcher in the long run with a 4.05 xFIP compared to Gil's 4.66 mark.

With the better starter on their side and a comparable offense to New York in weighted runs created plus (15th versus 7th), Tampa Bay could provide tremendous value as the underdog with an eye-popping 15.5% gap between numberFire's 63.1% win probability and the Rays' 47.6% implied percentage.

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

Salvador Perez to Record 2+ Bases (+115)

Wielding a hot bat with a .345 expected average and a 52% hard hit rate in his last 69 plate appearances, Kansas City's cleanup batter should continue to mash versus left-hander Cole Irvin.

There are several solid reasons to back Salvador Perez at home in addition to his hot form when examining a lengthy history of hitting well against southpaws (8% above average in runs created plus in his career, .479 career slugging percentage), his individual success in this matchup including a .436 expected average in 12 plate appearances, and Irvin's trouble getting outs versus right-handed bats this season (5.01 xFIP, 48.6% hard hit rate).

With all the ingredients adding up to a potential big performance at the plate, we are getting incredible value for Perez to reach two bases especially at an implied 46.5%.

Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves

Texas Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-104)

Marcus Semien to Record 2+ Bases (+100)

Despite the Rangers' recent slump in Atlanta, MLB's tenth ranked offense has a prime spot to break out of their funk with a 5.18 expected run total against inexperienced right-hander Darius Vines.

Through 16.2 career innings as a starter, while some could view Vines' 2.60 ERA as a viable measure of success, the 25-year old journeyman is due for a blowup when examining his 5.21 xFIP and 4.39 FIP in this role.

With massive regression heading his way and glaring reverse splits throughout his career (6.28 xFIP, 16.1% walk rate), we can target the Rangers' leadoff hitter when analyzing Marcus Semien's hot overall form this season (.342 expected average, 7.3% barrel) and in his last 31 plate appearances (.345 expected average, 43% hard hit rate, 5 extra base hits).

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.