MLB Betting Guide for Saturday 10/7/23: Finding Value Between NL Rivals

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Phillies +1.5 (-118)

The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in an eerily similar situation to last year -- Wild Card winners headed south to take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS.

That worked well for them last time. After sweeping the Wild Card (2-0), Philly came into Atlanta and put up 7 runs in the first 5.0 innings, taking the opener 7-6 and eventually the series 3-1.

While I'm not so sure they'll find similar success for the entirety of the Division Series, I'm expecting the Phillies to come out hot in Game 1.

For starters, they're squaring off with Spencer Strider. Baseball's Strikeout King was a fantasy darling during the regular season, leading the league with a 36.8% strikeout rate and posting strong expected stats (3.02 xERA, 2.86 SIERA). However, Strider was also prone to blow-ups, notably giving up a 43.7% flyball rate and finishing the season with a 3.86 ERA.

While the 24-year-old only made one postseason start during last year's rookie campaign, it did not go well. Against these very Phillies, Strider let up 5 runs across just 2.1 innings in a 9-1, Game 3 loss.

He's since enjoyed much more success against Philadelphia, having started 4 games against them this season. He held them to just 7 runs and 18 hits across 26.0 innings of work, striking out a staggering 38 in the process. Two of those starts came within the last month, during which Strider allowed just 4 runs and picked up 2 wins across 14.0 innings.

Still, I'm optimistic the Phillies will have more success this time around. Since the All-Star break, they rank seventh in wOBA (.334), second in ISO (.205), and ninth in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitchers. While they did struggle against Strider during the regular season, they'll only need to put up a few runs to keep things close.

That's because Ranger Suarez is expected to toe the rubber opposite Strider. The southpaw was up and down during the regular season, but he's flashed dominant stuff at times and hasn't shown any fear pitching against the Braves. Suarez has started six games against Atlanta since the beginning of last season, posting a 2.91 ERA and allowing just 27 hits across 34 innings. He held the Braves to two or fewer runs in four of those six starts -- a trend I'm expecting to continue in Game 1.

Suarez was fantastic during the playoffs last season, posting a 1.23 ERA and picking up a pair of wins across five appearances. He pitched a solid 3.1 innings in Atlanta during last year's NLDS, allowing three hits and a single run.

So, while the Braves have shredded lefties in 2023, I'm expecting Suarez to mitigate the damage in Game 1. Given both starters' track records against the opposing squad, both Under 8.5 (-110) for the game and F5 Under 4.5 (-102) are both intriguing plays.

That said, Philly covered +1.5 during four of the seven games in Atlanta during the regular season, so we'll trust them to continue that success in Saturday's opener.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

We're flipping the script for the second Saturday play, backing the Los Angeles Dodgers to cover the runline when they host their division rivals, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

This one boils down to the pitching matchup. With Merrill Kelly on the mound for the D-backs and Clayton Kershaw toeing the rubber for the Dodgers, LA has a pretty clear advantage.

To be fair, Kelly had a career year this season, recording the best ERA (3.29), strikeout rate (25.9%), and swinging strike rate (12.0%) of his career. However, he also walked a career-high 9.6% of hitters and gave up the highest hard-hit rate (41.8%) of his career. That may not have impacted his actual ERA much, but it led to his expected ERA (4.10) to differ substantially.

Kelly has gotten shelled against the Dodgers throughout his career -- especially on the road. In 8 career starts at Dodger Stadium, Kelly owns a 7.03 ERA and has given up 54 hits in 39.2 innings. That includes his most recent start at Dodger Stadium when he let up 12 hits and 7 runs across 5.0 innings of work.

It makes sense. LA hits righties (which Kelly is) and changeups (which Kelly relies on) better than nearly anyone in the league. In that split, they ranked second in wOBA (.342) and third in ISO (.193). Against changeups, the Dodgers led the league by a wide margin with 35.4 runs above average and 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches.

Assuming the LA lineup can keep it rolling against Kelly, we really just need a serviceable outing from Kershaw tonight.

If his regular season play was any indication, we'll get that -- and more.

Kershaw added another incredible campaign to his resume this season. If not for a stint on the injured list, the lefty very well could have won the Cy Young with how well he pitched. Across 24 starts, Kershaw posted a 2.46 ERA, a 26.2% strikeout rate, and a 29.5% called plus swinging strike rate. He allowed more than two runs just once in 13 starts after June 1st, so there's no question he's peaking at the right time.

Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks in two home starts, as well. He let up just 2 runs and 7 hits in 11 innings, striking out 14 in the process.

Struggling against lefties is nothing new for Arizona. Over the second half of the season, the Diamondbacks posted bottom 10 marks in wOBA (.300), ISO (.130), and wRC+ (86) in that split -- though they notably struck out at the lowest rate (17.0%) over that span.

On top of that, the Dodgers outscored the Diamondbacks 42-12 in seven home games this season. With their best arm on the mound against a pitcher they've historically thrived against, I expect a continuation of that success as they cruise to an easy win.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.