Mississippi State vs Texas Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 4

The Texas Longhorns (16-13, 5-11 SEC) will attempt to end a three-game road losing streak when they visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-9, 8-8 SEC) on March 4, 2025 at Humphrey Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 4, 2025
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: SEC Network
• Location: Starkville, Mississippi
• Arena: Humphrey Coliseum

Mississippi State vs. Texas Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mississippi State win (75.8%)

Before you bet on Tuesday's Mississippi State-Texas spread (Mississippi State -7.5) or over/under (152.5 points), read the betting trends and insights below.

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Mississippi State vs. Texas: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Mississippi State is 13-16-0 ATS this season.
• Texas has put together a 13-16-0 record against the spread this year.
• As a 7.5-point underdog or more in 2024-25, Texas is 1-1 against the spread compared to the 6-7 ATS record Mississippi State puts up as a 7.5-point favorite.
• When playing at home, the Bulldogs sport a worse record against the spread (6-8-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (5-5-0).
• In 2024-25 against the spread, the Longhorns have a better winning percentage at home (.471, 8-9-0 record) than on the road (.444, 4-5-0).
• Mississippi State is 6-10-0 against the spread in conference action this season.
• Texas has covered the spread six times in 16 SEC games.

Mississippi State vs. Texas: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Mississippi State has been the moneyline favorite in 23 games this season and has come away with the win 17 times (73.9%) in those contests.
• This season, the Bulldogs have come away with a win 10 times in 11 chances when named as a favorite of at least -300 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Texas has put together a 1-8 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 11.1% of those games).
• The Longhorns have played as a moneyline underdog of +240 or longer in only two games this season, which they lost both.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Mississippi State has a 75% chance of walking away with the win.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Head-to-Head Comparison

• Mississippi State's +174 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by six points per game) is a result of scoring 79.1 points per game (59th in college basketball) while allowing 73.1 per outing (214th in college basketball).
• Josh Hubbard leads Mississippi State, recording 18.3 points per game (60th in college basketball).
• Texas outscores opponents by 7.2 points per game (posting 78 points per game, 78th in college basketball, and allowing 70.8 per contest, 147th in college basketball) and has a +209 scoring differential.
• Tre Johnson paces Texas, averaging 20.6 points per game (ninth in college basketball).
• The 35.9 rebounds per game the Bulldogs average rank 25th in college basketball, and are 3.6 more than the 32.3 their opponents collect per outing.
• KeShawn Murphy's 7.6 rebounds per game lead the Bulldogs and rank 95th in college basketball action.
• The Longhorns are 156th in college basketball at 32.4 rebounds per game. That's 1.5 more than the 30.9 their opponents average.
• Arthur Kaluma is 68th in the nation with 7.9 rebounds per game, leading the Longhorns.
• Mississippi State scores 99.2 points per 100 possessions (93rd in college basketball), while allowing 91.7 points per 100 possessions (137th in college basketball).
• The Longhorns average 101.4 points per 100 possessions (53rd in college basketball), while giving up 92 points per 100 possessions (149th in college basketball).

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