Miles Sanders Is Ready to Bring Life to the RB Dead Zone

The NFL season is fast approaching as the Carolina Panthers' training camp kicks off on July 29th.

With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, what better time to take a look at Panthers running back Miles Sanders' fantasy outlook and projection for 2023.

Miles Sanders Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 1,251 rushing yards, 7.9 rushing TDs, 32 receptions, 196 receiving yards, 1.43 receiving TDs (214.35 half-PPR points)

numberFire Positional Projection: RB16

Miles Sanders Fantasy Football Outlook

Running Back Draft Trends

The fantasy community may have finally hit its breaking point with early-round running backs. For years, running backs dominated the first two rounds of drafts. However, in 2023 running backs are no longer the most-drafted position in the first two rounds -- at least, according to early average draft position (ADP) data from FantasyPros.

Approximately 14 running backs were selected, on average, in the first two rounds of drafts during each of the past three seasons. This year, that number is down to just 9.

While that means you're more likely to get an early back if you so choose, it also means the competition for mid-round running back will be more fierce in 2023. Those can be the equivalent of a lottery ticket -- last year did see Josh Jacobs (ADP 48) and Breece Hall (ADP 44) selected in that RB Dead Zone.

RB1s selected outside the first two rounds are few and far between, but Miles Sanders (ADP 60) certainly makes an intriguing case for being the next mid-round running back to vastly outperform his ADP.

2022 Rewind

The positive touchdown regression finally came for Miles Sanders in 2022. After failing to score despite 137 carries and 20 receptions in 2021, Sanders notched 11 touchdowns in 2021. That uptick, coupled with 1,347 total yards, propelled him to an RB13 finish last season.

Sanders was one of the most efficient backs in the league last season, ranking second only to Nick Chubb with 32.68 rushing net expected points (NEP), per numberFire. His 132 rush successes ranked fourth among backs and his 50.97% rush success rate ranked third among backs with at least 100 carries.

He notably struggled down the stretch, however, as Sanders was the RB8 through the first 14 weeks of the season before finishing as the RB29 from Week 15 onward. That downtick in production coincided directly with a decreased snap share. From Week 14 until the Super Bowl, Sanders gradually received less of the Eagles' running back workload and he was actually out-snapped by backup Kenneth Gainwell in the playoffs.

His lack of involvement over the final two months of the season likely left a bad taste in the mouths of fantasy owners and could be part of why his ADP is so low entering 2023.

The Panthers saw no issue with his finish, inking Sanders to a four-year deal with $13 million in guaranteed money. Thus, he'll enter 2023 attempting to prove last year's standout season wasn't solely thanks to Philly's top-ranked offensive line.

2023 Preview

Miles Sanders has some question marks entering his first season in Carolina, but those pertain more to his ceiling rather than his floor.

Last season, Sanders led the league with 837 rushing yards before contact -- a testament to both the Eagles' run blockers and also to Sanders' vision and elusiveness. PFF gave Sanders a 55.1 Elusive Rating, just 20th among running backs but ahead of long-time fantasy studs Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley.

Those yards before contact may be harder to come by away from Philadelphia, but the Panthers' line showed remarkable improvement last season. Although they sat as low as 31st in PFF's offensive line ranking at the beginning of the year, they finished 15th and enter 2023 ranked 16th. It's a step back for Sanders but he certainly won't be running behind a bad line in Carolina.

The biggest factor in Sanders' fantasy value this season is his involvement in the passing game. He caught just 21 passes (on 28 targets) for a measly 81 yards in Philadelphia last season but he had previously shown at least some ability to be a weapon in the passing game.

As a rookie in 2019, Sanders was targeted 67 times and finished the season with 517 receiving yards. He does own 16 career drops (11.4% drop rate) but nevertheless, Panthers' head coach Frank Reich already called Sanders a three-down back and "willing blocker."

Time will tell if Reich and the Panthers utilize Sanders the same way they view him. It is worth noting that, with Bryce Young under center at Alabama, Jahmyr Gibbs commanded a 24% target share -- pointing to Young's willingness to dump it off to his backs.

It's not like Sanders will have much competition for targets or touches, either. Just look at Carolina's running back usage from last season.

After dealing McCaffrey midway through the season, Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman split time in the backfield. Foreman led the team in rushing but he's since moved to the Chicago Bears. Consequently, there are a ton of available touches for Sanders -- especially near the goal line.

Sanders should be the clear top option in the Red Zone for the Panthers. Despite his 11 touchdowns last season, Sanders split the Red Zone work with Jalen Hurts, with Sanders garnering 39.7% of Red Zone carries and Hurts taking 35.6%.

In Carolina, he'll presumably step right into the 54.7% Red Zone rushing share that the Panthers fed D'Onta Foreman last season. So, while Sanders' touchdown production may regress in a less potent offense, he could offset that by serving as Carolina's primary goal-line back.

Final Verdict

Volume is king in fantasy football, especially for running backs. We oftentimes get too caught up in the perceived talent a player has and cast aside the "boring" players despite a clear path to volume.

Josh Jacobs was the most obvious example of that last season. While Sanders may not have the same RB1 upside as Jacobs' output last season, he certainly has the potential for a similar workload.

Miles Sanders won't be a flashy pick by any means, but his durability and expected workload make him a solid 5th or 6th-round pick and a capable second running back on any fantasy team.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.