Miami Open Betting Guide: Thursday 3/28/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Miami Open Betting Guide: Thursday 3/28/24

Following an exciting Indian Wells, we get another premier American tennis tournament with the Miami Open.

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Miami Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Thursday night's matches?

Miami Open Best Bets

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-118)

Carlos Alcaraz is a -550 favorite over Grigor Dimitrov, implying 84.6% win odds. Technically, that means he might be overvalued, as Tennis Abstract gives him a 69.8% win probability.

And yet with the way Alcaraz has been playing, it's hard to see any other result but another routine, straight-sets win for him.

Following some iffy play in February after the Australian Open, Alcaraz regained his form at Indian Wells earlier this month, not only going on to win the tournament but doing so while defeating a gauntlet of Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev over the final three rounds. The win over Sinner is particularly notable, as it remains the 2024 Australian Open champion's lone loss in 2024.

Fast forward to now, and Alcaraz finds himself on a nine-match win streak, and he hasn't dropped a set in Miami. None of his three matches have hit the 90-minute mark, and he's faced a total of eight break points combined -- six of which he's saved.

World No. 12 Dimitrov deserves credit for his recent career resurgence, knocking on the door of the top 10 for the first time since 2018. But even with his improved play over the past year-plus, he's still struggled to finish the job in the later rounds of tournaments, earning just one title over the last 52 weeks.

While he's played well here in Miami, he's gone to a final set in two of his three matches and already endured three tiebreaks, so his path hasn't been without its hiccups.

Dimitrov did defeat Alcaraz in three sets last year in Shanghai, but he's just 1-3 in their head-to-head, with all four encounters happening since late 2022 (three in 2023).

Alcaraz has covered this spread in each of his Miami matches thus far and should be able to make it four straight.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Danielle Collins

Alexandrova +2.5 (-110)

I doubted Ekaterina Alexandrova against Jessica Pegula yesterday, but she pulled out the victory and has now beaten two straight top-five opponents, with the other being her prior upset of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.

She's the underdog again tonight, this time against Danielle Collins. Collins may rank well outside the top 10 players (57th), but she's a former world No. 7 and Grand Slam finalist, so she's no ordinary unseeded player.

Despite being just 30 years old, the American announced earlier this season that she will retire at the end of 2024. Perhaps she's prepared to go out with a bang, as she's demolished everyone in her path at Miami. Since dropping her opening set, she's won 10 sets in a row by scores of 6-3 or better. This includes defeating top-30 players Sorana Cirstea and Caroline Garcia across the last two rounds.

Alexandrova might be having a great tournament, but it's easy to forget she entered just 8-7 this season, which is partially why she finds herself as an underdog despite a top-20 ranking. Tennis Abstract projects Collins to win 62.0% of the time, falling in line with her implied odds (63.2%) as a -172 favorite.

While I'm not quite bold enough to pick Alexandrova straight-up against an in-form Collins, it also wouldn't be shocking if she keeps this magical run going. At the very least, I can see her keeping this one close and covering 2.5 games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.