Mexico Open at Vidanta: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Mexico Open at Vidanta: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico for this week's event: the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Vidanta Vallarta has hosted events for the past two years, so it's not the most well-known course on Tour just yet. But we do have some data on it, and that's a big help.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Vidanta Vallarta Course Info

  • Par: 71
  • Distance: 7,456 yards (long for par 71)
  • Average Fairway Width: 40.9 yards (78th of 87 courses)
  • Average Green Size: N/A
  • Green Type: Paspalum
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -24, -17
  • Recent Cut Lines: -2, -2

Vidanta Vallarta Course Key Stats

The course is long for a par 71, and driving distance has been quite helpful in each year. It's not that distance is a must -- but the par 4s and 5s are longest on Tour, on average, via datagolf.

With winning scores at -24 and -17, you'll need to find birdie-makers. That does open up the field a good bit because it's easier to score than to save par on tough setups.

Best Golfers at Vidanta Vallarta

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

FanDuel Salary
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Course SG:T/Rd
Course SG:T
Top 25s
Missed Cuts
Tony Finau$12,300+7504.0532.4221220
Brandon Wu$10,500+40003.4327.4220220
Cameron Champ$9,700+55002.5520.4220220
Patrick Rodgers$10,600+30002.3018.4220220
Emiliano Grillo$11,600+22001.9315.4220110
Stephan Jaeger$11,400+22001.6813.4220020
Davis Riley$8,300+120002.9411.7710110
View Full Table

Mexico Open at Vidanta Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

FanDuel Salary
Made Cut%
Tony Finau$12,3007.25%37.07%54.24%84.42%
Nicolai Hojgaard$11,8005.19%31.00%47.99%81.28%
Stephan Jaeger$11,4003.65%24.33%39.97%77.65%
Thomas Detry$11,1003.15%22.40%37.65%75.92%
Emiliano Grillo$11,6002.88%21.06%35.74%74.80%
Keith Mitchell$10,9002.80%21.67%36.65%75.78%
Thorbjorn Olesen$11,3002.50%19.15%33.43%73.41%
View Full Table

Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Nicolai Hojgaard

To Win (+1400)

Hojgaard definitely fits the mold of a successful golfer at Vidanta Vallarta. He actually played here in 2023 and finished T33. He finished 12th in strokes gained: approach in that event -- and 31st off the tee (11th in distance).

The short game just let him down, as he was outside the top 55 in short game strokes gained among the cut-makers.

Hojgaard returned to the PGA Tour in late January with a solo second at the Farmers Insurance in and has since followed it up with a T31 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (abbreviated to 54 holes) and then T39 at The Genesis Invitational.

The irons have been a plus in seven consecutive ShotLink events with the putting being a plus in five of those seven.

He's got the length off the tee and the irons to take this course deep.

Ryan Fox

To Win (+3500)

To Finish Top 10 (+360)

After the top two (Tony Finau and Nicolai Hojgaard), this field drops off very quickly.

So everyone is going to have some sort of issues in their stats profile whether it's a lack of distance, poor irons, shaky current form, or something similar.

Ryan Fox's concerns are valid: he had lost strokes from approach play in six straight events until his most recent start at the WM Phoenix Open. He's 78th over the last 50 rounds in strokes gained: approach.

But he's 8th in distance and 21st in putting, and that could help him take Vidanta deep enough to win.

Back in September, he erased a three-shot deficit against Ludvig Aberg at the BMW PGA Championship and outlasted a top-10 that included Tyrrell Hatton, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott, and Rory McIlroy to win a big-time event.

Aaron Rai

To Finish Top 10 (+450)

To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Top United Kingdom and Ireland (+270)

Rai has missed two of his past three cuts. At the WM Phoenix Open, he missed on the number, and at the American Express, he missed by two shots. Neither course necessarily fits his hyper-accurate play style.

While that also extends to Vidanta Vallarta, the talent is better than these odds show.

Rai has finished T24 here in 2022 and then missed the cut with horrific putting last year.

There's a bit of extra risk due to the course fit, but ignoring that course fit, Rai is one of the best values available this week.

S.H. Kim

To Finish Top 10 (+550)

To Finish Top 20 (+250)

Top Asian (+320)

Iron play is the key cog week in and week out, and that should keep us low on S.H. Kim (99th in approach over the past 50 rounds among the field).

However, he ranks top-35 in off the tee, around the green, and putting strokes gained. He's long off the tee (+5.5 yards gained on the world average male pro).

Kim finished T24 here last year while ranking near the bottom of the field in approach play among cut-makers. But he made up for it with strokes gained: off the tee, which is typical for him.

Kim is flirting with top-20s lately (T31 at Pebble and T28 at the WM Phoenix Open), and the field strength drop-off should help a lot this week in that department.

Joseph Bramlett

To Finish Top 20 (+360)

Joseph Bramlett ranks 33rd in approach and is 27th in overall tee to green strokes gained over the past 50 rounds. He's also top-20 in distance in this field, so he checks all of those boxes.

However, he's missed two of four cuts since returning in January after an undisclosed injury. He was T52 at the Sony Open and T25 at the Farmers (carried by the putter).

What helps us buy in is that he's gaining distance on the field and just not making putts. This one is more of a buy-low angle based on how he was golfing in 2023 before the injury.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.