Louisville vs South Florida College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 11 South Florida Bulls (25-8) will be trying to move on to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they square off against the No. 6 Louisville Cardinals (23-10) on Thursday. This 6-11 matchup in the East Region bracket tips off at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. South Florida Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Game time: 1:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Louisville vs. South Florida Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Louisville win (59%)

If you plan to place a wager on Louisville-South Florida matchup (in which Louisville is a 4.5-point favorite and the total has been set at 162.5 points), keep reading for some betting insights and trends for Thursday's game.

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Louisville vs. South Florida: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville has compiled a 16-17-0 record against the spread this season.
• South Florida has won 17 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 14 times.
• South Florida covers the spread when it is a 4.5-point underdog or more 100% of the time. That's more often than Louisville covers as a favorite of 4.5 or more (56%).
• The Cardinals have done a better job covering the spread when playing at home (10-7-0) than they have in road tilts (3-8-0).
• The Bulls have performed better against the spread away (7-5-0) than at home (8-5-0) this season.

Louisville vs. South Florida: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has won in 16, or 69.6%, of the 23 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• This season, the Cardinals have come away with a win 15 times in 19 chances when named as a favorite of at least -182 or shorter on the moneyline.
• South Florida has put together a 1-3 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 25% of those games).
• The Bulls have played as a moneyline underdog of +150 or longer in just two games this season, which they lost both.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 64.5% chance of pulling out a win.

Louisville vs. South Florida Head-to-Head Comparison

• At 78.5 points scored per game and 69.5 points allowed last season, Louisville was 65th in college basketball offensively and 89th on defense.
• Louisville was 47th in the country in rebounds per game (34.6) and 114th in rebounds conceded (30.2) last season.
• Last season Louisville was ranked 148th in the nation in assists with 13.9 per game.
• Louisville was 150th in the country in turnovers per game (10.9) and 93rd in turnovers forced (12.2) last season.
• South Florida was 155th in the country last season with 74.4 points per game. At the other end, it ranked 251st with 74.5 points allowed per game.
• South Florida ranked 15th-worst in the nation with 34.6 rebounds allowed per contest. Meanwhile, it averaged 31.3 boards per game (214th-ranked in college basketball).
• Last year South Florida ranked 119th in college basketball in assists, dishing out 14.3 per game.
• South Florida averaged 10.7 turnovers per game (135th-ranked in college basketball) this season, while forcing 12.4 turnovers per contest (79th-ranked).

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