Louisville vs SMU College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 31

ACC play on Saturday will see the the No. 20 Louisville Cardinals (14-6, 4-4 ACC) host the SMU Mustangs (15-5, 4-3 ACC) at KFC Yum! Center, beginning at 2 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. SMU Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, January 31, 2026
• Game time: 2 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Louisville, Kentucky
• Arena: KFC Yum! Center

Louisville vs. SMU Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Louisville win (75.8%)

See these betting trends and insights before you bet on Saturday's Louisville-SMU spread (Louisville -8.5) or over/under (161.5 points).

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Louisville vs. SMU: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville has put together an 11-9-0 record against the spread this season.
• SMU is 9-11-0 ATS this season.
• As an 8.5-point favorite or more in 2025-26, Louisville is 8-4 against the spread compared to the 1-1 ATS record SMU puts up as an 8.5-point underdog.
• The Cardinals have done a better job covering the spread at home (7-5-0) than they have in road games (2-4-0).
• Against the spread, the Mustangs have had better results on the road (3-2-0) than at home (5-8-0).
• Louisville's record against the spread in conference action is 3-5-0.
• Against the spread in ACC play, SMU is 3-4-0 this season.

Louisville vs. SMU: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 11 games this year and has walked away with the win eight times (72.7%) in those games.
• The Cardinals have not lost in three games this year when favored by -481 or better on the moneyline.
• SMU has been the underdog on the moneyline seven total times this season. SMU has finished 2-5 in those games.
• The Mustangs have played as a moneyline underdog of +360 or longer in just two games this season, which they lost both.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 82.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Louisville vs. SMU Head-to-Head Comparison

• Louisville outscores opponents by 15.7 points per game (scoring 86 per game to rank 24th in college basketball while giving up 70.3 per contest to rank 92nd in college basketball) and has a +314 scoring differential overall.
• Ryan Conwell paces Louisville, averaging 19.4 points per game (43rd in the nation).
• SMU puts up 87.3 points per game (18th in college basketball) while allowing 77 per outing (270th in college basketball). It has a +205 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 10.3 points per game.
• SMU's leading scorer, Kevin Miller, ranks 43rd in college basketball, putting up 19.4 points per game.
• The Cardinals record 38.1 rebounds per game (14th in college basketball) while conceding 31 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 7.1 boards per game.
• Sananda Fru paces the Cardinals with 6.9 rebounds per game (175th in college basketball action).
• The 34.8 rebounds per game the Mustangs accumulate rank 76th in college basketball, 3.8 more than the 31 their opponents collect.
• Samet Yigitoglu leads the team with 8.1 rebounds per game (66th in college basketball).
• Louisville's 106.2 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 32nd in college basketball, and the 86.8 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 34th in college basketball.
• The Mustangs rank 46th in college basketball with 104.9 points scored per 100 possessions, and 147th defensively with 92.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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