Louisville vs North Carolina College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 23

The North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 9-5 ACC) hope to continue a 16-game home win streak when they host the Louisville Cardinals (20-7, 9-5 ACC) on February 23, 2026.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. North Carolina Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Monday, February 23, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Arena: Dean E. Smith Center

Louisville vs. North Carolina Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: North Carolina win (59.3%)

Here's a look at some betting insights for Louisville (-2.5) versus North Carolina on Monday. The over/under is set at 162.5 points for this game.

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Louisville vs. North Carolina: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville has put together a 14-13-0 ATS record so far this year.
• North Carolina has put together a 14-13-0 record against the spread this season.
• Louisville covers the spread when it is a 2.5-point favorite or more 58.3% of the time. That's less often than North Carolina covers as an underdog of 2.5 or more (75%).
• Against the spread, the Cardinals have played better when playing at home, covering nine times in 16 home games, and two times in eight road games.
• This year, the Tar Heels are 9-6-0 at home against the spread (.600 winning percentage). Away, they are 4-5-0 ATS (.444).
• Louisville has covered the spread five times in 14 conference games.
• North Carolina is 6-8-0 against the spread in ACC games this year.

Louisville vs. North Carolina: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has been the moneyline favorite in 18 games this season and has come away with the win 14 times (77.8%) in those contests.
• This season, the Cardinals have been victorious 14 times in 17 chances when named as a favorite of at least -144 or shorter on the moneyline.
• North Carolina has compiled a 4-3 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 57.1% of those games).
• In games they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +120 or longer, the Tar Heels have a record of 3-1 (75%).
• Louisville has an implied victory probability of 59% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Louisville vs. North Carolina Head-to-Head Comparison

• On offense, Louisville was the 65th-ranked team in college basketball (78.5 points per game) last season. Defensively, it was 89th (69.5 points allowed per game).
• At 34.6 rebounds per game and 30.2 rebounds conceded, Louisville was 47th and 114th in the nation, respectively, last year.
• Louisville was 148th in the country in assists (13.9 per game) last year.
• In terms of turnovers, Louisville was 150th in college basketball in committing them (10.9 per game) last year. It was 93rd in forcing them (12.2 per game).
• Offensively, North Carolina averaged 80.7 points per game (29th-ranked in college basketball) last year. It allowed 74.7 points per contest at the other end of the court (261st-ranked).
• North Carolina averaged 33.2 rebounds per game (105th-ranked in college basketball). It gave up 31.2 rebounds per contest (182nd-ranked).
• Last season North Carolina ranked 93rd in college basketball in assists, dishing out 14.7 per game.
• North Carolina committed 10.5 turnovers per game (120th-ranked in college basketball). It forced 10.2 turnovers per contest (288th-ranked).

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