Las Vegas Grand Prix Win Simulations: Banking on Recent Speed

I come to you, dear reader, as someone who is truly and pathetically washed.

My hairline is toast. I have a 10-year college reunion lurking around the corner. Playing video games in my free time has morphed into paying bills and catering to the whims a wheaten terrier.

I am not built to be up past midnight.

But, whew, buddy, you can believe I'll make an exception this weekend.

For some reason, lights go out for the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix at 1 am Eastern on Sunday. Typically, I'd be long gone, hunting down that third REM cycle and hoping to avoid a sugar hangover from one (1) margarita. Instead, I get to watch miraculous feats of engineering hurtle down The Strip.

It's going to be a banger.

Not only will the spectacle itself be a thrill, but I do believe we can get some good value in the betting markets, as well. With chilly temperatures and no data on this layout, we don't know for sure which constructors will benefit. Volatility isn't a bad thing if you can properly account for it.

Obviously, I don't know if I'll be able to do that. But we're on equal footing with sportsbooks this week, and that's not always the case.

With that in mind, here are my model's simulations of the Las Vegas Grand Prix prior to the first practice session on Thursday night.

Before digging in elsewhere, it's worth noting there's a bit of value in the podium odds for Max Verstappen (-490) and Lando Norris (-185), relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds. That could mean I'm under-accounting for the aforementioned volatility, so proceed with caution, but those two have shared the podium in 6 of the past 11 races.

Beyond those two, the other values primarily lean on mid-pack drivers who have gotten a jolt of pace recently. That's Lance Stroll and Daniel Ricciardo.

Stroll grades out as a value to finish top 6 (13.0% in the sims versus 5.9% implied at +1600). Stroll has finished top-10 just twice in eight races since the end of the summer break, but both have come since Aston Martin introduced new upgrades in Austin. Stroll used those upgrades to qualify third in Brazil en route to a fifth-place finish.

The pace for Stroll was strong at COTA, too, though his poor starting spot masked it. He recovered to finish ninth even before accounting for the disqualifications of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. It was a long summer for Stroll, but I think the recent pace justifies the model's enthusiasm.

For Ricciardo, there is value for him to finish inside the top six, but the more realistic market is likely for him to finish in the points. There, he's 42.4% in the sims, up from 29.4% implied at +240.

Although Ricciardo has just one top 10 this year, some of that is due to poor luck. He was caught up in incidents in Hungary and Brazil, which effectively ended his pursuit of points. In Mexico City, Ricciardo qualified fourth and finished seventh, showing the gains AlphaTauri has made since the beginning of the year.

I think the pace for Ricciardo is a better illustration of what to expect than the finishes. Thus, as with Stroll, I believe the model is justified in being above market on him.

The final driver worth highlighting is Pierre Gasly. The speed in the Alpine has fluctuated violently of late, but Gasly has still managed to score points in five of eight races since the summer break. As a result, the model does show value in Gasly to finish top six (+1100) and top 10 (+150).

Unlike with Stroll and Ricciardo, though, it might be best to wait if you want to bet Gasly. Even in that impressive post-summer-break stretch, Gasly has started on the back half of the grid in all but two races. His issues in qualifying date back to last year with AlphaTauri, so this has been an ongoing concern.

Thus, it's not a bad idea to wait until after qualifying to snag Gasly. He's unlikely to qualify right at the front of the grid, potentially allowing you to get a better number later. This also may help you sidestep a dead ticket should things go catastrophically in qualifying.

Which bets do you like for this weekend in Las Vegas? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest F1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.