How Many Games Will the Cardinals Win in 2024?

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
How Many Games Will the Cardinals Win in 2024?

Following a disappointing 2023 season, the St. Louis Cardinals have revamped their roster to make a run back to the postseason.

What is the St. Louis Cardinals' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Cardinals' win total is listed at 84.5.

Let's dig into what we can expect from St. Louis this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

St. Louis Cardinals Win Total Odds

St. Louis Cardinals Over/Under 84.5 Wins

  • Over: -115
  • Under: -105

Why Cardinals Could Win Over 84.5 Games (-115)

The Cardinals should not have been as bad as they were last season. And with how things are looking in the National League Central, there's real reason to believe that this will be the bounce-back year that should include going over 84.5 wins.

In the past five seasons of 162-game baseball, the Cardinals have finished with over 84.5 wins four times. If you want to go further back, they've surpassed that win total 20 times since 2000. Winning is what the Cardinals do, which is why 2023 was such a weird year for them. But they have the talent in place (and history) to get back over the hump.

St. Louis will be leaning on bounce-back seasons from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Goldschmidt won the 2022 NL MVP but followed that up with a .350 wOBA and 3.7 fWAR -- both serious downgrades. The same can be said for Arenado, who finished even worse with a .327 wOBA and 2.6 fWAR. Both were major reasons their lineup was so down. Not many additions were made to their lineup, so along with their two stars, they'll lean on the likes of Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson to take another step.

Perhaps the biggest reason that they can win over 84.5 wins is simple -- their division is weak.

The NL Central moved backward this offseason when the Milwaukee Brewers moved on from Corbin Burnes. They're waiting for an injured Brandon Woodruff and just saw their closer Devin Williams go down in spring training. Then there's the Chicago Cubs, who is their main competition in the division. Having the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates to work off should also help the Cardinals add up some wins as they pursue more than 84.5.

For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects the Cardinals to finish just shy of the 84.5 wins, expecting them to finish with 83. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals with the best odds to win the NL Central, as well, with +170 odds.

Why Cardinals Could Win Under 84.5 Games (-105)

There sure feels like there are a lot more reasons the Cardinals can finish under the 84.5 games.

The first goes to the lineup. If Arenado and Goldschmidt don't bounce back, they're in trouble. If they do, but the rest of the lineup doesn't live up to expectations, then they'll be right where they were last season. The only additions they made for their offense were longtime veterans Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford. That's not necessarily exciting, and with two core pieces of their offense in Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman potentially missing time to start the season, it's all the scarier.

Then there's their pitching. The Cardinals did go out and sign Sonny Gray to be their ace. It's beyond Gray where there are questions. St. Louis added Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to help fill out their rotation. Both of them are coming off brutal seasons, however. Gibson had a 4.40 SIERA, and Lynn was wrecked with a 4.33 SIERA and 5.53 FIP while allowing a league-high 44 home runs. It's hard to have confidence in a pitching staff led by so many question marks.

It's difficult to predict this team because they have a wide range of outcomes, potentially landing a playoff spot or falling below the 84.5 games and looking for answers. With so many young players being counted on and an older crop that isn't setting the world ablaze after last season, betting the under feels almost safer.

Wins and losses for the Cardinals will come down to the NL Central when it's all said and done. The talent of each team offers a range of possibilities.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.