AU - Casterton - Race 7

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

9.9f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 6

42.9K

VIEW

Verdict

EL JAMES (1) was a winner at the Warrnambool Carnival, which looks a great platform for a race like this. Has a strong record at this trip, scoring three times from four starts and no reason he can't go on with it. FLYING BASIL (2) led into the straight last start over 1 ¹/16m at Warrnambool in the wet but could not sustain the pressure and finished 11th. This is much easier than that and he'll give them something to catch. INHERENTLY (3) is putting together some solid results. Finished third at Caulfield Heath two starts back then got the job done by one length last time out over 1 ¼m at Warrnambool. Going up a level this time but he is good enough to play a major role. CACHINK (7) finished a long way from the winner last time, but that horse is favourite for the Qld Derby, so there's no knock on that form. MERCURIAL BOY (4) scored two back at Kerang but was below his best last time when eighth over 1m at Donald. Looks well placed so expect a better run this time.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	At the latest run won by 1.0 len at Warrnambool Bm70 May 5 over 1 7/16m in heavy going defeating Empress Of The Sun carrying 132lbs at $7. The run before that 5th of 11 at Morphettville Parks Bm82 on April 18 over 1 ³/16m, 2 len behind Sir Kingsford with 120lbs at $11. Hard to beat again in this sort of form. 1st Pick 1 El James Jockey: Linda Meech Trainer: Symon Wilde J: Linda Meech T: Symon Wilde	214	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis At the latest run won by 1.0 len at Warrnambool Bm70 May 5 over 1 7/16m in heavy going defeating Empress Of The Sun carrying 132lbs at $7. The run before that 5th of 11 at Morphettville Parks Bm82 on April 18 over 1 ³/16m, 2 len behind Sir Kingsford with 120lbs at $11. Hard to beat again in this sort of form.
2	Last start raced on the pace before fading second last of 12 at Warrnambool Hcp on May 5 over 1 ¹/16m, on heavy track, 7 len behind Ocean Beyond carrying 116lbs at $19. The run before that faded in the straight ran last of 7 at Edenhope Hcp on March 7 over 1 ¼m, 7 len behind Khor with 126lbs at $7. Prepared to overlook that last run, expecting sharp improvement. 2nd Pick 2 Flying Basil Jockey: Tom Madden Trainer: Shane Jackson J: Tom Madden T: Shane Jackson	138	-	-	-	8%	13/1
Analysis Last start raced on the pace before fading second last of 12 at Warrnambool Hcp on May 5 over 1 ¹/16m, on heavy track, 7 len behind Ocean Beyond carrying 116lbs at $19. The run before that faded in the straight ran last of 7 at Edenhope Hcp on March 7 over 1 ¼m, 7 len behind Khor with 126lbs at $7. Prepared to overlook that last run, expecting sharp improvement.
3	Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Warrnambool Bm66 May 6 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Colour Our World with 130lbs at $6.50. Before that 3rd of 8 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on April 29 over 1m, neck behind Pula with 130lbs at $6. This a step up, but racing consistently and deserves a shot at this sort of race. 3rd Pick 3 Inherently Jockey: Jack Hill Trainer: Patrick Mckenna J: Jack Hill T: Patrick Mckenna	118	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently ran on from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Warrnambool Bm66 May 6 over 1 ¼m in heavy going defeating Colour Our World with 130lbs at $6.50. Before that 3rd of 8 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on April 29 over 1m, neck behind Pula with 130lbs at $6. This a step up, but racing consistently and deserves a shot at this sort of race.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.