Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Dinger Tuesday (Sept. 1)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jackson Chourio (+330)
• Gunnar Henderson (+520)
• Jordan Walker (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio (+330)

Brewers at Cubs, 7:41 p.m. ET

We saw 20 total runs last night at Wrigley. The wind is blowing out once again (8 MPH), and Jackson Chourio is my favorite HR pick from the game.

Lefty Matthew Boyd is starting for the Chicago Cubs. The veteran owns a 4.41 SIERA and 19.0% K rate this year as his numbers have taken a step back. He’s permitted 15 long-balls this season, 14 of which have come to right-handed hitters. In all, Boyd has allowed a 43.2% fly-ball rate and 1.78 jacks per nine to righties.

Chourio has slugged his way to a career-best .353 wOBA this season. His wOBA with the platoon advantage is .371, and he’s got a 41.6% hard-hit rate in the split.

Chourio has homered three times across his last 23 plate appearances, and he can add to the tally on a windy night at Wrigley.

Home Run Prediction: Gunnar Henderson (+520)

Orioles at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

The Baltimore Orioles get a massive park-factor bump today at Coors, and that puts me on Gunnar Henderson to leave the yard.

Gabriel Hughes, a RHP, will be on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Hughes has 47.2 MLB innings to his name, and he’s recorded a 4.72 SIERA and 18.0% strikeout rate. Left-handed hitters are striking out only 14.0% of the time against him.

Enter Henderson, who has a 43.2% hard-hit rate and 40.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handers this season. Henderson is swinging it as well as he has all year, producing a .413 wOBA over his last 79 plate appearances.

After Hughes, Henderson will face a Rockies bullpen that ranks dead last in reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (5.11).

Home Run Prediction: Jordan Walker (+300)

Cardinals at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Jordan Walker‘s breakout year has resulted in some huge numbers, and I like him in a date with southpaw Eric Lauer.

Walker has launched 27 dingers with a .363 wOBA and 42.5% hard-hit rate. He’s actually been better away from home, with 17 of those 27 homers coming in the split along with a .383 wOBA.

Against lefties, Walker has racked up a .392 wOBA, 51.4% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate.

Lauer has struggled to a 15.4% K rate since joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the season, he’s surrendered 1.98 jacks per nine and a 51.0% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters.

Once Lauer departs, a slumping LA bullpen will take over. Across the last 30 days, the Dodgers’ relievers rank 11th-worst in xFIP (4.40).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.