Heat vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 28

Heat vs. Rockets Game Info

• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, Florida
• Coverage: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN

The Houston Rockets (37-21) will attempt to build on a three-game win streak when they visit the Miami Heat (31-29) on Saturday, February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center as 3.5-point favorites. The matchup airs at 3:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video and SCHN. The over/under is set at 225.5 in the matchup.

Heat vs. Rockets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Heat vs. Rockets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Heat win (55%)

Heat vs. Rockets Betting Trends

• The Rockets have gone 27-31-0 against the spread this season.
• The Heat are 34-25-1 against the spread this year.
• This season, Rockets games have hit the over 25 times out of 60 chances.
• The Heat have gone over the point total 53.3% of the time this season (32 of 60 games with a set point total).
• Houston has done a better job covering the spread in road games (17-14-0) than it has in home games (10-17-0).
• The Rockets have eclipsed the total less often at home, hitting the over in nine of 27 home matchups (33.3%). In road games, they have hit the over in 16 of 31 games (51.6%).
• Against the spread, Miami has had better results on the road (19-12-1) than at home (15-13-0).
• In 2025-26, a higher percentage of the Heat's games have finished above the over/under at home (53.6%, 15 of 28) compared to on the road (53.1%, 17 of 32).

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant is averaging 26.1 points, 4.5 assists and 5.4 boards.
• Alperen Sengun's numbers on the season are 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game, shooting 50% from the floor.
• Amen Thompson averages 17.3 points, 7.6 boards and 5.3 assists, shooting 51% from the field.
• Reed Sheppard averages 13.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3 assists, shooting 43.2% from the field and 39.8% from downtown, with 2.6 made 3-pointers per game.
• Tari Eason averages 11.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists, shooting 44.5% from the floor and 43.2% from downtown (10th in NBA), with 2 made 3-pointers per game.

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists for the Heat.
• Andrew Wiggins averages 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He is also draining 47.5% of his shots from the floor and 40.8% from beyond the arc, with 2.1 triples per game.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s numbers on the season are 15 points, 5.3 boards and 4.6 assists per contest. He is sinking 50.3% of his shots from the floor.
• Per game, Kel'el Ware provides the Heat 11.3 points, 9.3 boards and 0.5 assists, plus 0.7 steals and 1 block.
• The Heat are getting 8.9 points, 2.6 boards and 7 assists per game from Davion Mitchell.

For more NBA betting insights, check out FanDuel Research's NBA home page.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

Watch FanDuel TV's NBA show "Run It Back" with Lou Williams, Michelle Beadle, DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins and Chandler Parsons weekdays at 10am ET on FanDuel TV, the Run It Back YouTube page, or download the podcast here: fanduel.com/research/tv-and-podcast.