Heat vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 28

Heat vs. Rockets Game Info

• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, Florida
• Coverage: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN

The Houston Rockets (37-21) are favored (-2) to extend a three-game winning streak when they visit the Miami Heat (31-29) at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The game airs on Amazon Prime Video and SCHN. The matchup has a point total of 226.5.

Heat vs. Rockets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Heat vs. Rockets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Heat win (54.8%)

Heat vs. Rockets Betting Trends

• The Rockets have covered the spread 27 times in 58 games with a set spread.
• The Heat have 34 wins against the spread in 60 games this year.
• Rockets games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 25 times out of 60 chances this season.
• Heat games this season have gone over the total in 32 of 60 opportunities (53.3%).
• Houston has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than away games. It has covered 10 times in 27 games at home, and it has covered 17 times in 31 games on the road.
• In home games, the Rockets go over the over/under 33.3% of the time (nine of 27 games). They hit the over more consistently in road games, exceeding the total in 51.6% of games (16 of 31).
• Miami has been better against the spread away (19-12-1) than at home (15-13-0) this season.
• Heat games have finished above the over/under more often at home (15 times out of 28) than on the road (17 of 32) this season.

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant is averaging 26.1 points, 4.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds.
• Alperen Sengun's numbers on the season are 20.4 points, 9.2 boards and 6.4 assists per contest, shooting 50% from the floor.
• Amen Thompson averages 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists.
• Reed Sheppard's numbers on the season are 13.1 points, 2.6 boards and 3 assists per contest, shooting 43.2% from the field and 39.8% from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.6 made treys.
• Tari Eason's numbers on the season are 11.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 44.5% from the field and 43.2% from downtown (10th in NBA), with an average of 2 made treys.

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo's numbers on the season are 18.5 points, 9.8 boards and 2.9 assists per contest. He is also sinking 44.7% of his shots from the field and 33.9% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.7 triples.
• The Heat are getting 16.1 points, 5.1 boards and 2.8 assists per game from Andrew Wiggins.
• The Heat are getting 15 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game from Jaime Jaquez Jr.
• The Heat are getting 11.3 points, 9.3 boards and 0.5 assists per game from Kel'el Ware.
• Davion Mitchell averages 8.9 points, 2.6 boards and 7 assists. He is draining 47.2% of his shots from the floor and 41% from beyond the arc, with 1.2 treys per contest.

For more NBA betting insights, check out FanDuel Research's NBA home page.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

Watch FanDuel TV's NBA show "Run It Back" with Lou Williams, Michelle Beadle, DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins and Chandler Parsons weekdays at 10am ET on FanDuel TV, the Run It Back YouTube page, or download the podcast here: fanduel.com/research/tv-and-podcast.