Final Four Betting Odds: 3 Longshots Capable of Making the Final Four
One of the best postseasons in sports is approaching, with March Madness tipping off on March 19th. With the NCAA Tournament nearly one month away, it's a good time to peruse FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds, particularly the futures markets.
The typical teams are among the favorites to make the Final Four -- such as Connecticut (+170), Houston (+210), North Carolina (+390), and Kansas (+450). But what about some of the unlikely teams to make a deep run?
Several longshots are carrying juicy odds to make the Final Four. Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's Final Four odds while focusing on a few promising longshots.
Final Four Odds
To Reach the Final Four - 2024
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
For the most part, Dayton has been regarded as the best mid-major team in college basketball this season. The Flyers rank 23rd in KenPom and are led by the 12th-best adjusted offensive efficiency. They rank in the 90th percentile of field goal percentage (FG%) and three-point percentage.
Having a star player to shoulder the load is always a big key come tournament time. Dayton certainly has that in DaRon Holmes II, who averages 19.7 points per game (PPG), 7.6 rebounds (RPG), and 2.3 blocks. Holmes is even drawing some NBA Draft hype; while he will likely fall in the second round, it's still something that most mid-major teams do not have.
The Flyers' offense is truly a bear to stop due to their ability to also knockdown the three-ball. They shoot 40.0% from deep (99th percentile) and have four shooters who convert at least 36.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.
A dominant big man paired with elite three-point shooting is a recipe for success. This is one major reason that Purdue -- who plays with a similar style -- carries the lowest odds to win the national championship (+700).
After two mid-major teams appeared in the Final Four last season, it could be wise to back another mid-major to make a deep run.
New Mexico is another mid-major team to keep an eye on. Similar to Dayton, the Lobos are led by an elite offense, one that ranks in the 96th percentile with 84.4 PPG while shooting 47.7% from the field (90th percentile).
New Mexico actually carries the top KenPom rating among all mid-major teams at 19. Plus, they have balance, boasting the 38th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th-best adjusted defensive efficiency.
The offense's biggest strength is attacking the rim, with the sixth-most two-point makes and second-most two-point attempts per contest. If the Lobos land in a region with weak interior defenses, their interior game could be the recipe for them to reach an unexpected Final Four.
New Mexico also has a star in Jaelen House (15.5 PPG), who ranks as EvanMiya's ninth-most valuable player in the country. This is a team with a ton of balance, sporting four double-digit scorers and three guards who total at least 15.0 PPG -- House, Donovan Dent (15.7 PPG), and Jamal Mashburn Jr. (15.5 PPG).
Elite guard play can be a huge key for the NCAA Tournament. For example, think of Miami or Florida Atlantic's runs last season; both teams had excellent backcourts that could take over the game.
My biggest Final Four sleeper among the power conferences is Colorado from the Pac-12. The Buffaloes are not drawing much attention since Arizona is running away with the Pac-12. The Buffaloes, however, rank as KenPom's second-best squad from the Pac-12 (27th).
While they do not possess the most impressive stats, Colorado is still a team to keep in mind. They rank outside the top 30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but their talent level could warrant grabbing a share of the Buffaloes' stock.
The offense has elite efficiency, posting a 49.3 FG% (96th percentile) and 39.1% three-point percentage (97th percentile). KJ Simpson (19.4 PPG), Tristan da Silva (15.3 PPG), and Cody Williams (14.4 PPG) are a three-headed monster, and all rank among EvanMiya's top 12 most valuable players in the Pac-12 (Simpson and da Silva are within the top 5). Williams is also beginning to generate some attention for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
This team clearly has talent on the offensive end, and when teams get hot from three, good luck taking them down. Colorado has some Final Four upside, making them an appealing longshot candidate. Following the Buffs' win on Thursday, their Final Four odds dropped from +2700 to +2000. They host Arizona this weekend in a big one, a game in which the Buffs are 1.5-point favorite.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.