Soccer

FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 12/2/23

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 12/2/23

Following a week full of action in the Champions League, the EPL returns for Matchweek 14!

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday and features five matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

EPL DFS Picks

Slate Overview

Wolves (+1000) at Arsenal (-360)
Over 2.5 Goals: -164 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+140)

Sheffield United (+360) at Burnley (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -114 | Most Likely to Score: Obafemi and Amdouni (+195)

Luton Town (+550) at Brentford (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -137 | Most Likely to Score: Mbeumo (+120)

Everton (+160) at Nottingham Forest (+180)
Over 2.5 Goals: -102 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+240)

Manchester United (+290) at Newcastle (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -137 | Most Likely to Score: Isak (+150)

Positional Breakdown
Forwards/Midfielders

Saturday's main slate features two big-six sides, with Arsenal in action at home against Wolves and Manchester United on the road against Newcastle.

With United and Newcastle set to clash, Arsenal's forwards will likely be the most popular players on the slate. Adding to their outlook is their relatively affordable salaries, which, outside of Bukayo Saka ($23, +185 anytime goal odds), are all $19 or less.

The Gunners' anticipated popularity is well deserved. They are on top of the table, the largest favorite on the slate, and enter this weekend on a four-match win streak across all competitions. They rank only seventh in xG (22.6), per FBref, but are facing a Wolves side that ranks 12th in xG allowed (22.4). Their match has the best odds to go over 2.5 goals (-164) of any match on the slate.

With that in mind, Gabriel Jesus ($19, +140), Martin Odegaard ($19, +200), Gabriel Martinelli ($18, +190), and Leandro Trossard ($17, +190) are top options this weekend. Saka is also an excellent option, but his odds to score are worse than Jesus', and his salary is the highest on the slate.

For GPPs, Declan Rice ($17, +550) provides exposure to Arsenal and should be slightly less popular than the options listed above.

Outside of Arsenal, Brentford is the largest favorite on the slate. Playing at home against a Luton side that ranks 19th in xG allowed (26.3), the Bees have a bright outlook this weekend and provide a solid pivot off the Gunners' stars.

Bryan Mbeumo ($22, +120) has the second-highest salary on the slate but has the best odds to score, and he could go slightly overlooked due to the salary discount Arsenal's other forwards provide. Yoane Wissa ($16, +165) has an excellent outlook for his salary, as does Neal Maupay ($16, +175).

Elsewhere, there could be goals on both sides of Newcastle's clash with Manchester United. United have held lesser opposition off the scoresheet this season but have been horrendous against better sides. Against Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton, Galatasaray, Bayern, FC Copenhagen, and Tottenham, they have conceded an average of 2.9 goals per match. When the lights have been the brightest, United have been at their worst.

Look for Newcastle to exploit that his weekend, with Alexander Isak ($20, +150), Anthony Gordon ($20, +210), and Miguel Almiron ($14, +270) all set up for success.

On the other side of the pitch, United have been scoring goals for fun lately. They have three goals in three of their last four matches and a goal in five straight. Newcastle has allowed a goal in four straight matches against a solid slate of opponents, keeping the door open for Rasmus Hojlund ($15, +290) and Marcus Rashford ($17, +310) to find the back of the net. For GPPs, Alejandro Garnacho ($16, +470) is in the form of his life and should start again here.

Other players with decent odds to find the back of the net include Zeki Amdouni ($14, +195), Jay Rodriguez ($18, +210), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($18, +240), and Chris Wood ($15, +260).

Added time -- Some other midfield options to consider include Morgan Gibbs-White ($18, +150 to score or assist), James Garner ($17, +340), Johann Gudmundsson ($15, +185), Josh Brownhill ($15, +250), and Gustavo Hamer ($14, +200).

Defenders

For defenders with consistent involvement on set pieces, Saturday's slate provides two options -- Kieran Trippier ($15, +200 to score or assist) and Alfie Doughty ($11, +390).

Trippier is the gold standard for defenders. He is averaging 21.2 FanDuel points per game this season as the primary set-piece taker for Newcastle. He ranks second in assists (6), third in expected assists (4.3), and seventh in expected assists per 90 (0.34). His salary is affordable, and he could be busy on both ends of the pitch in this one.

Doughty is the primary set-piece taker for Luton and usually operates as an outside midfielder in their 3-4-2-1 formation despite being listed as a defender. He is averaging 13.7 FanDuel points per match. Facing Brentford, he won't have as many opportunities as Trippier does, but his salary is more affordable to account for that.

While Vitalii Mykolenko ($15, +600) doesn't take set pieces, he enters this weekend in fantastic form. Operating on the left of Everton's 4-4-1-1 formation, he has two goals and 10 shots in his last three matches and has scored more than 30.0 FanDuel points in three of his last four.

Wolves' defense should be extremely busy against Arsenal, providing Max Kilman ($12) and Craig Dawson ($12) with plenty of defensive opportunities. Facing Brentford, Luton's defenders should also be busy, with Tom Lockyer ($13), Teden Mengi ($12), Amari'i Bell ($11), and Gabriel Osho ($11) set to benefit.

If you believe United's struggles in big matches continue, Newcastle should keep Harry Maguire ($10) and Victor Lindelof ($10) busy on Saturday. Both are in good fantasy form, as Maguire has at least 18 FanDuel points in each of his last three matches, and Lindelof has scored 29.0 and 34.6 FanDuel points in his last two matches.

Sheffield United's defenders are normally busy, but this weekend, they face a Burnley side that ranks 19th in xG (11.2). Sheffield ranks 20th in xG allowed (29.0) creating a bit of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object scenario. Burnley are home favorites and should still provide Jack Robinson ($10), Charlie Taylor ($11), and Anel Ahmedhodzic ($10) with defensive opportunities, but their ceilings may be a bit lower than they usually are.

Added time -- For GPPs, Arsenal's Oleksandr Zinchenko ($10, +750 anytime goal odds) has decent odds to score for a defender. In his last two Premier League appearances, he has FanDuel performances of 18.4 and 35.0 points, with a goal and three chances created.

Goalies

Arsenal's David Raya ($13) has the best win odds on the slate, followed by Brentford's Mark Flekken ($12).

Raya holds an edge at keeping a clean sheet, as well, with Wolves at -125 to score no goals, compared to Luton being +110. Raya leads the league in clean sheets this season with six.

Flekken should have far more save opportunities, as Brentford has allowed 54 shots on targets this season compared to just 28 for the Gunners. Even with Wolves averaging more shots on target per 90 (3.92) than Luton (2.46), Flekken likely has the higher ceiling this weekend.

Newcastle's Nick Pope ($11) is in an interesting spot this weekend. United are on the best goal-scoring run of their season thus far, but their failure to show up in big matches could result in an inefficient performance on the road this weekend. Although United ranks sixth in shots per 90 (14.23), they're 11th in shots on target per 90 (4.38) and 14th in goals per shot on target (.25).

If you want to back the moveable object against the stoppable force, Sheffield's Wes Foderingham ($9) has a chance to earn his first clean sheet this season. Burnley are +390 to score no goals.

Added time -- Manchester United's Andre Onana ($9) is a risky option after his horrendous performance in the Champions League on Wednesday, but he should go completely overlooked in a match that will provide plenty of save opportunities. He has a clean sheet in each of his last three EPL matches, with FanDuel point totals of 19, 24, and 29 during that stretch.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.