FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 10/28/23
Following a week full of action in the Champions League, the EPL returns for Matchweek 10!
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday and features three matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
EPL DFS Picks
Burnley (+115) at Bournemouth (+230)
Over 2.5 Goals: -130 | Most Likely to Score: Solanke (+175)
Sheffield United (+2000) at Arsenal (-950)
Over 2.5 Goals: -304 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus* (+100)
Newcastle (-125) at Wolves (+320)
Over 2.5 Goals: -141 | Most Likely to Score: Isak* (+160)
*Both Jesus and Isak are questionable for this weekend due to injuries.
Saturday's main slate features one big-six side, with Arsenal in action at home against Sheffield United.
On a full slate, this would be a spot where Arsenal's stars would be extremely popular -- on this three-game slate, their draft percentages will be even more sky-high.
That attention is well deserved. The Gunners are massive home favorites versus a Sheffield side that has conceded the most goals (24) and the second-most expected goals (xG) -- per FBRef -- at 20.7. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Arsenal ranks eighth in xG accumulated (15.9). In their game against Bournemouth -- the only side whose xG allowed numbers are similar to Sheffield United's -- Arsenal won 4-0.
All that to say, the outlook is extremely bright for Eddie Nketiah ($18, +105 anytime goal odds), Bukayo Saka ($24, +125), Leandro Trossard ($18, +105), and Martin Odegaard ($22, +150).
For GPPs, Kai Havertz ($15, +150) and Declan Rice ($17, +420) are in consideration. They provide exposure to Arsenal and should be slightly less popular than the options listed above.
Outside of Arsenal, Newcastle is the largest favorite on the slate. They face a short turnaround following their 1-0 loss in the Champions League on Wednesday. In that game, they lost two players -- Alexander Isak and Jacob Murphy -- to injury and neither is expected to be available on Saturday. They will also be without star midfielder Sandro Tonali, who has been suspended for 10 months after breaching betting rules in Italy.
Despite these absences, the Magpies remain favorites on the road against a Wolves side that has kept a clean sheet in just one of their nine EPL fixtures this season. Opportunities should be there for Callum Wilson ($21, +170), Anthony Gordon ($20, +240), and Miguel Almiron ($15, +290). Wilson currently leads the league in goals per 90 (1.35), xG per 90 (1.18), and shots on target per 90 (2.97).
On the other side of the pitch, Matheus Cunha ($17, +290) and Pedro Neto ($18, +390) are worth considering. Of the nine goals Newcastle has allowed this season, six have come on the road.
The clash between Burnley and Bournemouth is the match least likely to go over 2.5 goals, per the betting odds, but on a small slate, every match needs to be considered. Both sides are among the four teams that have allowed the most xG and are also inside the bottom three in xG scored. It's a stoppable force meeting a moveable object.
Dominic Solanke ($19, +175), the game's most likely goal scorer, according to the odds. He scored in his most recent match and is averaging 2.7 shots per game. Burnley's most likely goal scorer, Zeki Amdouni ($15, +250), has just one goal this season but has been consistently involved, averaging 13.9 FanDuel points per match.
Other players with decent odds to find the back of the net include Lyle Foster ($19, +320), Philip Billing ($17, +270), and David Brooks ($12, +280).
Added time -- Some other midfield options to consider include Marcus Tavernier ($15, +125 to score or assist), Bruno Guimaraes ($16, +260), Sean Longstaff ($14, +340), and Josh Brownhill ($14, +360).
On a small slate, a single goal or assist from a defender can make a massive difference, especially if the slate winds up being a low-scoring one.
Kieran Trippier ($16, +210 to score or assist) is an excellent starting point. He is averaging 23.9 FanDuel points per game this season and is the primary set-piece taker for Newcastle. He ranks third in assists per 90 (0.70), first in assists (6), and second in expected assists (3.7).
For Arsenal, Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9, +130) has excellent odds to score or assist. Against Bournemouth in late September, he recorded 24.8 FanDuel points with 2 shots and 2 chances created. Saturday's clash with Sheffield could play out in a similar fashion. Ben White ($13, +220) scored a goal in that game against Bournemouth and is worth considering at a higher salary.
As usual, Sheffield United's defense should be extremely busy, providing Jack Robinson ($10) and Auston Trusty ($10) with plenty of defensive opportunities. If Newcastle controls their match against Wolves, Craig Dawson ($13), Max Kilman ($12), and Toti Gomes ($8) should be busy. Dawson and Kilman are both averaging more than 15.0 FanDuel points per game this season.
If you want to back Wolves, Nelson Semedo ($11, +750) is listed as a defender but has been operating as a right-sided midfielder in Wolves' 3-4-3 formation in recent games. The same can be said of Rayan Ait-Nouri ($9, +440), who does the same on the left.
In the clash between Burnley and Bournemouth, two sets of defenders who are used to being under pressure may not see as many defensive opportunities as they usually do.
That said, Burnley are slight favorites, and if they get the better of Bournemouth, Lloyd Kelly ($10) and Illia Zabarnyi ($10) should be busy in the center of the Cherries' defense.
Added time -- For GPPs, Burnley's Vitinho ($8, +750 anytime goal odds) could get a start here. In 35 appearances in the Championship last season, he had 3 goals and 1 assist with 29 shots and 19 chances created.
Arsenal's David Raya ($13) has the best win odds on the slate, followed by Nick Pope ($12).
Raya also has the best chance at keeping a clean sheet, with Sheffield listed at -170 to score no goals, compared to Wolves being +175.
Pope should have more save opportunities, Wolves (12.0) average more shots per 90 than Sheffield (9.1). The Blades rank 18th in shots on target per 90 (3.0) while Wolves rank 15th (3.7). The Gunners check in second in fewest shots against per 90 (9.0) and fewest shots on target against per 90 (2.22), reinforcing the low-ceiling outlook for Raya on Saturday.
For GPPs, Wolves' Jose Sa ($8) has an interesting outlook. Newcastle's attack ranks third in shots on target per 90 (6.11) and first in goals per shot (0.18) but will be without a couple of key players on Saturday. If Newcastle's finishing efficiency suffers as a result of being short-handed, Sa could be a high-ceiling option.
The Cherries' Neto ($11) has a high salary for his outlook on Saturday but could benefit from Bournemouth's and Burnley's home/road splits. Bournemouth are allowing 1.8 goals per home match this season, compared to 2.75 goals per away fixture. Burnley's 0.75 goals scored per away match is tied with Sheffield for the fewest in the EPL.
Added time -- Sheffield United's Wes Foderingham ($7) is a risky option but should have plenty of save opportunities at the lowest salary of any starting goalie on the slate.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.