FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Black Friday Game (Dolphins at Jets)

The first-ever "Black Friday" game has lost much of its shine since it was announced in the offseason. While the Miami Dolphins have held up their end of the bargain as one of the league's most exciting offenses, the New York Jets have more or less sunk their playoff hopes with dismal quarterback play, failing to implement an adequate backup plan after Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. Miami is a 9.5-point road favorite in a game with a 41.0-point over/under, according to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

As the high spread would suggest, most of our best MVP options will be coming from one team -- and let's just say it's not the Jets.

The trio of Tyreek Hill ($17,500), Tua Tagovailoa ($15,500), and Raheem Mostert ($14,000) have the slate's highest salaries, but we've seen all of them blow up for big games this year.

Hill is having a historic season, being the first player in 62 years to exceed 1,200 receiving yards in his team's first 10 games. Unsurprisingly, he's the WR1 in fantasy, averaging 21.5 FanDuel points per game while leading the NFL in both receiving yards and touchdowns. The usage numbers are ridiculous, with Hill soaking up a 32.0% target share, 44.4% air yards share, 31.3% red zone share, and 33.3% end zone share.

Admittedly, this is a very difficult matchup against a Jets defense that's given up the fewest FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. But Hill has looked about as matchup-proof as they come and is capable of a slate-breaking score on any normal slate, let alone a single-game offering.

With a weapon like Tyreek, Tagovailoa has naturally enjoyed his share of big moments, as well. Tua has recorded 300-plus passing yards and/or thrown 3 or more scores in 6 of 10 starts this season. Of course, the trouble is that a strong fantasy performance from Tagovailoa often means even gaudier numbers for Hill, particularly considering Tua's not a QB who runs much at all.

As you might expect from how stingy the Jets have been versus WRs, they're inside the top 10 in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics. But after Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills just cooked this defense for 32 points -- including three passing scores -- perhaps Miami coach Mike McDaniel can find a way to duplicate that success.

Among running backs, Mostert has scored the second-most FanDuel points and total touchdowns (13) behind just Christian McCaffrey. New York has allowed the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs, which likely coincides in part with the Jets having the fourth-worst time of possession, giving opposing backs more opportunities.

While his snaps and opportunities tend to fluctuate from week to week and seem pretty game-script dependent, he logged a season-high 77.9% snap rate last week following a bye, resulting in a healthy 22 carries and a pair of targets. Plus, the massive spread suggests that we'll get a positive game script for Mostert to add to his touchdown tally.

I'm guessing these three are featured at MVP in the bulk of lineups, so if we're looking to pivot, Jaylen Waddle ($10,000) is a possibility.

With Hill dominating on a near-weekly basis, Waddle has taken a backseat, but he's still showing a 21.6% target share, 26.8% air yards share, 19.0% red zone share, and 27.3% end zone share. Waddle has also dealt with a variety of ailments throughout the year that have affected his numbers.

He's exceeded 100 yards just once this season, and this is hardly the right opponent to produce his second one. Still, if the Jets go all-in on stopping Hill, it's always possible Waddle is the one who shines in his place.

For one last Dolphins player, De'Von Achane ($13,500) deserves a quick mention. At the start of the week, he's looking like a shaky bet to play after re-injuring his knee, and even if he's ultimately active, it's hard to envision him getting a big workload in a game with blowout potential.

But Achane's already proven to be a scary home run threat on limited touches, so he has to be considered here if active. In Weeks 3-5, he scored 49.3, 25.5, and 21.0 FanDuel points. He's a true wild card.

Okay, we've ignored New York up until this point, so it's time to give Breece Hall ($13,000) some love as perhaps the one Jets guy we can feel reasonably confident slotting in at MVP.

It's no guarantee New York keeps things close enough to stick with their run game, but Hall should stay involved regardless of the game script due to his prominent role in the passing game. Since being unleashed in Week 5, Hall's averaged 98.0 scrimmage yards off 14.2 carries and 5.0 targets per game while posting an 87.5% red zone rushing share.

Particularly with the Jets turning to a career backup at quarterback this week, the offense will likely revolve around Hall. It can't hurt that Miami is 24th in adjusted rush defense, too.

Flex Breakdown

As alluded to above, New York finally pulled the plug on an ineffective Zach Wilson after stubbornly sticking with him as their post-Rodgers starting QB all season. The trouble is that there's little reason to expect Tim Boyle ($11,000) to be a significant improvement. The 29-year-old is 0-3 as a starter and is on his fourth team in five years.

As a result, Boyle might be the rare signal-caller to mostly ignore at MVP, and he's not necessarily a must as a flex, either. A mid-game benching can't be ruled out if Boyle struggles, especially because the Dolphins are now up to ninth in adjusted pass defense.

Instead, if we're tapping into this questionable passing game, star wideout Garrett Wilson ($12,000) is the more appealing way to go. The offense's struggles have left Wilson with a lack of ceiling games -- he's maxed out at 15.3 FanDuel points this year -- but his voluminous role should lead to bigger days with even the slightest upgrade in quarterback play.

Wilson's usage actually mirrors that of Tyreek Hill, as he's seen a 32.7% target share, 48.4% air yards share, 40.0% red zone share, and 44.4% end zone share. We don't know if Boyle will look Garrett Wilson's way as much as Zach Wilson did, but Garrett should continue to be heavily utilized as one of the team's primary difference-makers. He's projected for 9.7 targets in numberFire's model.

Of the remaining Jets pass-catchers, wideout Allen Lazard ($8,500) and tight end Tyler Conklin ($8,000) project for roughly five targets apiece. Lazard's earned a 13.0% target share this year while Conklin's at 14.3%. Each one has hit double-digit FanDuel points just once in 10 games, though.

Kick/punt returner Xavier Gipson ($6,500) hasn't had much of an impact as a receiver this season, but he's gotten more snaps on offense lately, most recently logging a season-high 83.0% snap rate and 88.6% route participation rate in Week 11. It resulted in just two targets (one catch for seven yards), so future playing time is hardly guaranteed, but he's got some dart-throw appeal.

Backup running back Dalvin Cook ($8,000) is almost entirely a non-factor at this point, seeing a handful of opportunities per game. Last week's 22.6% snap rate was his highest in weeks. Barring a lucky touchdown, he's a poor bet to crack the optimal lineup.

We've already run through most of the viable Miami players in the MVP section, but Cedrick Wilson ($8,500) is a decent value play. As the third wide receiver, he's logged a 13.0% target share, 64.3% snap rate, and 66.2% route rate over the last two games.

If Achane is ruled out, Jeff Wilson ($7,500) and Salvon Ahmed ($5,500) should serve as Mostert's backups. Wilson was a healthy scratch last week with Achane back, but Ahmed presumably got the nod over him due to his role on special teams. While Wilson projects for more fantasy points than Ahmed, he's been held below double-digit opportunities when active.

Update: Ahmed has been placed on injured reserve, increasing the chance of Wilson having a meaningful role as a backup if Achane doesn't play.

As a low-total game with a lot of iffy value options, kickers Jason Sanders ($9,000) and Greg Zuerlein ($9,500) have a very reasonable chance of finishing as optimal plays. This matchup also sets up for a great time to roster the Miami D/ST ($9,500), as there's a non-zero chance Tim Boyle ends up being a downgrade to Zach Wilson.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.