FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 11/15/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,000) -- After a down game last night, Luka Doncic can bounce back in a big way today versus the Washington Wizards. Matchups don't get much better than the Wiz, a team that is 25th in defensive rating and plays at the league's fastest pace. The total for this game is 244.0 points, a whopping 9.5 more than any other game's total, and the spread is just 6.0 points, which eases some of the blowout concerns. Washington has allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per night to point guards (49.6). numberFire projects Luka for a slate-leading 56.2 FanDuel points, and the ceiling is monstrous if the game stays competitive.

Donovan Mitchell ($9,700) -- Donovan Mitchell is another high-salary guard who can break the slate. The banged-up Portland Trail Blazers are a sweet matchup, and Darius Garland has been ruled out for the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Garland off the floor this year, Mitchell sees a usage-rate boost of 2.4 percentage points and posts 1.3 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. The lone worry is blowout risk as the Cavs are 11.0-point road favorites.

Coby White ($5,400) -- DeMar DeRozan is out tonight, which gives Coby White a big boost. With DDR off the court, White's usage rate jumps to 27.5%, a leap of 7.7 percentage points, and he produces 1.1 FanDuel points per minute. White is my favorite way to take advantage of DeRozan's absence, and he's a quality play despite a blah matchup with the Orlando Magic.

Others to Consider

Kyrie Irving ($8,600) -- Kyrie Irving is projecting well in the aforementioned sublime matchup with the Wizards, as numberFire forecasts Kyrie to generate 43.8 FanDuel points (5.09 per $1,000). Personally, I prefer to find the salary for Luka instead, but if it looks like Luka will be way more popular, Kyrie is a fun pivot.

Jalen Brunson ($8,000) -- I think there's a world where Jalen Brunson goes overlooked today despite a nice matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, a bout with a 228.0-point total and 1.0-point spread. Atlanta is 19th in defensive rating and is playing at the 5th-fastest pace. The conditions are right for Brunson to have a big night, and he'd benefit from RJ Barrett sitting again.

Jrue Holiday ($6,600) -- We've had to worry about blowout concerns with the Boston Celtics quite often this season. That's not the case today, as they're just 4.5-point road favorites at the Philadelphia 76ers. Jrue Holiday has taken a back seat so far, sporting a 17.3% usage rate (compared to last season's 25.0% clip). But the salary is modest, and numberFire pegs Holiday to score 34.1 FanDuel points (5.16 per $1,000).

Wings

Top Plays

Kyle Kuzma ($7,700) -- Kyle Kuzma is an ideal stacking partner for Luka or Kyrie. As mentioned, this game has a slate-best 244.0-point total. The Dallas Mavericks are 26th in defensive rating and 6th in pace. Kuzma's peripheral stats haven't been there lately, but he's still producing solid fantasy outputs, averaging 35.9 FanDuel points per night over his past seven games. He's got upside for way more in the best DFS game environment of the slate. And don't sleep on Jordan Poole ($6,700).

Caris LeVert ($6,100) -- With Garland out, Caris LeVert might slide into the starting five. With Garland off the floor this year, LeVert racks up 1.1 FanDuel points per minute on a 25.0% usage rate. The blowout risk is very real, but at this salary, LeVert can smash even if he doesn't get his full allotment of minutes.

Patrick Williams ($4,300) -- Patrick Williams is a low-salary way to take advantage of DeRozan being out, especially if he's bumped into the starting unit. With DDR off the floor in 2023-24, Williams has recorded 32.6 FanDuel points per 36 minutes, an increase of 8.3 FanDuel points. If he starts, he should push for 30ish minutes and can hit as a value play.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) -- With Luka in the game of the night, Giannis Antetokounmpo probably won't be the high-salary stud the masses prioritize. That makes him super appealing. A matchup with a Toronto Raptors team that plays at the fifth-slowest pace and sits seventh in defensive rating is a tough spot. The Raps held Giannis to 23.8 FanDuel points earlier this season. But Giannis can nuke anyone when he's on, and I'll be very interested in him if draft percentage projections have him slipping through the cracks.

Shaedon Sharpe ($7,300) -- If you're going to use some Cavs, it makes sense to run it back with a Blazer in the hopes that the game stays competitive. I side with Shaedon Sharpe over Jerami Grant ($7,400), but both project pretty well. You can also throw a dart at Toumani Camara ($3,900), who started on Tuesday. Sharpe has logged at least 38 minutes in seven straight games for the short-handed Blazers. The opportunity will be there in spite of a tough matchup.

Deni Avdija ($5,700) -- One more player from the Mavs-Wiz clash. Deni Avdija has shined in projections around the industry fairly often this year, and while you can argue the ceiling isn't very appealing, Avdija is a modest-salaried way to get exposure to a juicy game environment. He's seen at least 27 minutes in five straight games.

Bigs

Top Plays

Anthony Davis ($11,500) -- We have a lot of top-tier options at center/power forward tonight. Of the bunch, Anthony Davis is my favorite. AD was excellent last night, ripping off 55.7 FanDuel points in a blowout-shortened 26 minutes. The rest should come in handy on the second leg of a back-to-back, and the spread is just 1.5 points tonight against the Sacramento Kings. Davis smoked the Kings for 67.2 FanDuel points earlier this year, and I'm taking him over Joel Embiid ($12,400) as the top high-salary big of the slate.

Evan Mobley ($7,500) -- With Garland off the court this year, Evan Mobley has tallied 45.4 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. Portland has been shredded by bigs this season, so you can make a case for Jarrett Allen ($6,200), too. Both are projecting well, per numberFire -- Mobley at 39.1 FanDuel points (5.21 per $1,000) and Allen at 30.9 FanDuel points (4.99). If Portland can keep it close, a few Cavs can pop off.

Goga Bitadze ($4,600) -- A low-salary starter, Goga Bitadze is a standout in numberFire's projections, as they have him putting up 25.2 FanDuel points (5.48 per $1,000). Since being moved into the starting five, he has averaged 26.2 FanDuel points per game over five contests. The Chicago Bulls are giving up the eighth-most FanDuel points per night to centers (57.7).

Others to Consider

Mitchell Robinson ($5,900) -- A matchup with Atlanta puts Mitchell Robinson in a solid spot. The Hawks surrender the 4th-most blocks per game to centers (2.9) as well as the 13th-most boards per game (13.1). That's where Robinson does his damage. numberFire has him scoring 29.7 FanDuel points (5.03 per $1,000).

Brook Lopez ($5,500) -- Brook Lopez could have a good game tonight. The Raptors' weak spot has been defending bigs as they give up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to centers (58.2). Toronto did, however, keep Lopez to just 18.2 FanDuel points in their previous meeting this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.