NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 2/27/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 2/27/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Tuesday's main slate on FanDuel features nine games but some dramatically different game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Dejounte Murray ($8,900) -- Trae Young is out for at least the next month, so it's safe to treat Dejounte Murray like a fantasy building block. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Murray has averaged 41.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists and 49.4 FanDuel points per game (FPPG) in Young's previous six absences. That sets him up well against a Utah D that's given up the second most FPPG to PGs over the last 15 games, per FantasyPros. Murray's points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 39.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Darius Garland ($7,200) -- In three games since Darius Garland's minute's restriction was lifted, he's averaged 18.3 points, 8.6 assists, and 36.6 FPPG. Garland has played at least 32 minutes in all three outings, totaling 5 steals over that span. His salary still doesn't reflect the role change, so we can turn to him as a mid-range value again tonight. The matchup is solid, too; Dallas is below average against guards, and they play at the ninth-fastest pace.

Alex Caruso ($5,900) -- Eligible at both guard positions, Alex Caruso is a great value tonight in a home matchup with Detroit. The Pistons are among the six best fantasy matchups for either guard spot, and they're 30th in defensive rating overall. Caruso, meanwhile, has scored at least 23 FPs in 15 of his last 16 games. He's exceeded 30 FPs seven times over that span, so there's a ceiling to match his tremendous floor.

Others to Consider

Donovan Mitchell ($9,900) -- Donovan Mitchell is coming off his second-worst fantasy game of the season (28.3 FPs), but it was his first game back from an illness that cost him two games. It was just the second time this season Mitchell was held under 30 FPs, so expect him to bounce back against Dallas. The Mavs have given up the fifth-most FPPG to SGs while Cleveland's implied total (118.5) is high enough to support both Cleveland guards in fantasy.

Stephen Curry ($9,200) -- Golden State owns the slate's highest implied total (127) against Washington, a defense that's allowed the second-most FPPG to PGs. Obviously, the matchup is there for Stephen Curry to thrive, and numberFire projects Steph for 45.6 FPs, third among guards. My only concern here is the lopsided spread (Warriors -10.5). Golden State won by 11 the last time they faced Washington, and, while Steph finished with 46.3 FPs, he only played 27 minutes. That said, he remains a strong option given the matchup and surprisingly palatable salary.

Keyonte George ($5,900) -- Keyonte George will make his sixth consecutive start tonight. He's been quiet since a 51.4-FP explosion right before the All-Star break but continues to see north of 30 minutes a night. That puts him in a nice spot to produce against Atlanta; the Hawks are 28th in defensive rating and 4th in pace.

Kris Dunn ($4,400) -- Kris Dunn's salary has dropped precipitously over the last two weeks -- likely thanks to him moving to the bench in favor of George. But, his minutes have largely been unaffected, playing at least 20 in three straight games. There's not a huge ceiling here, but the floor is decent given the advantageous matchup. numberFire projects Dunn for 22.1 FPs, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among guards.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) -- I'm inclined to avoid the high-salary wings tonight. Part of that is thanks to the wealth of guards on this slate, but most of it is because DeMar DeRozan is available at $7.9K. DeRozan hasn't had a ceiling game in a while, but he's still posted at least 32 FPs in six straight. There's plenty of upside in tonight's matchup with Detroit, a team DeMar already torched for 36.4 and 43.7 FPs. The Pistons have given up fifth-most FPPG to SFs while DeRozan's 42.8-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among wings.

Jonathan Kuminga ($6,800) -- Andrew Wiggins (personal) is out tonight, making Jonathan Kuminga uber-appealing against the Wizards. Kuminga has averaged the second-highest usage rate (26.0%) on the team when Wiggins sits, and you can't ask for a much better matchup. Washington is down at 29th in defensive rating and yields the most FPPG to opposing SFs. Kuminga's points prop is set at 18.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Quentin Grimes ($4,200) -- In two games for the Detroit Pistons, Quentin Grimes has notched 21.4 and 30.6 FPs, playing 26 and 23 minutes. He produced against a stellar Knicks defense, so we can roster him with confidence in tonight's bout with Chicago. The Bulls aren't a pushover on D -- and this isn't the best game environment -- but it's hard to ignore Grimes' production at this salary.

Others to Consider

Jalen Johnson ($8,100) -- Jalen Johnson notched 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in his first game sans Trae Young, totaling 52.5 FPs. That was his 8th 40-FP performance in the last 14 games, so the signs of a true breakout are there. Tonight's matchup bodes well for him to stay hot as the Jazz are among the three best fantasy matchups for both forward spots. A 237 over/under between a pair of the 10 fastest teams in the league hints at plenty of offense.

De'Andre Hunter ($6,100) -- De'Andre Hunter was already trending up, but he's in line for an even heavier workload with Trae Young out. Hunter has begun to hit his stride over the last four games, averaging 21 points and 32.7 FPPG. Utah has been a goldmine for opposing forwards, and Atlanta's 119-point implied total leaves room for multiple Hawks to feast.

Jaden McDaniels ($4,300) -- Jaden McDaniels is a quality salary saver tonight against the Spurs. Though San Antonio has steadily improved on D, they're still just 17th in defensive rating and top 10 in pace over the last 15 games. McDaniels enjoyed this matchup earlier in the season, going for 22 and 25.6 FPs in two prior meetings.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,100) -- Dorian Finney-Smith has thrived with Kevin Ollie at the helm, going for 32.8 and 20.8 FPs the last two games. He's quickly established a nice role in Brooklyn's rotation -- enough that I'm willing to look at him even in a tough matchup with Orlando.

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo is set up well against the Hornets tonight even if he didn't enjoy their two prior matchups. Charlotte held Giannis under 17 real-world points and 43 FPs in both previous meetings, but they're still the sixth-best fantasy matchup for PFs on the year. Giannis continues to offer consistent upside on a nightly basis and is coming off a 54.9 and 56.1-FP outings. His points + rebounds prop is up at 41.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

John Collins ($6,600) -- John Collins has taken off since Utah traded away Kelly Olynyk, averaging 15 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 36.3 FPPG. He's cleared 40 FPs three times over the last six games, so we can confidently deploy the dual-eligible big man against his former team. The Hawks are bottom seven in FPs allowed to both big spots and sit just league average in total rebound rate. At $6.6K, it's easy to find a spot for Collins in such a fantasy-friendly matchup.

Taylor Hendricks ($4,100) -- I'm more than happy to double-up on Utah's bigs in this matchup, and Taylor Hendricks' $4.1K salary is awfully appealing. The ninth overall pick has finally carved out a role in Utah's rotation, notching 26 minutes in two straight games. He finished with 24.3 and 15.6 FPs in those. Consequently, Hendricks' 23.6-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate regardless of position.

Others to Consider

Victor Wembanyama ($10,700) -- I'd be more interested in Victor Wembanyama if Rudy Gobert (questionable) sits, but he hasn't had an issue with Minnesota even with the Stifle Tower active. In three prior matchups, Wembanyama averaged 21.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 45.8 FPPG, clearing 50 FPs twice. Averaging 66.8 FPPG over his last five outings, Wemby may still have the highest ceiling on the slate.

Evan Mobley ($7,800) -- Evan Mobley continues to round into form coming off a 46.7-FP outing over the weekend. That was his fifth 40-FP performance in 12 games since returning from injury and third in the last five. Dallas has given up the 5th-most FPPG to opposing PFs, and they're down at No. 28 in total rebound rate. There's a decent ceiling here given Dallas-Cleveland's 233 over/under.

Marvin Bagley ($6,800) -- Washington-Golden State has the slate's highest over/under (243.5), so Marvin Bagley III makes a ton of sense if you load up on Warriors elsewhere. Bagley is coming off a quiet outing against Cleveland, but Golden State is a much better matchup for bigs. The Warriors are bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both big spots, so he's a quality bring-back.

PJ Washington ($4,900) -- PJ Washington doesn't have a great matchup, but his salary is low enough to consider him given his heavy workload. Since arriving in Dallas, Washington has averaged 30 minutes. Though he's only exceeded 20 FPs twice in five games, the minutes are strong enough to roster him as a salary-saver. Washington's 26-FP projection makes him the third-best value among bigs.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.