FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 1/25/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

De'Aaron Fox ($8,900) -- Guard isn't especially inspiring tonight, but De'Aaron Fox's salary is still worth getting to. Though he's coming off a disappointing effort, he'd previously gone for 40 FanDuel points (FPs) in three straight. As of Thursday afternoon, Fox boasts the slate's fourth-highest numberFire projection, and he's the top point-per-dollar option on the board. Tonight's Sacramento Kings-Golden State Warriors bout has a fantasy-friendly 243 over/under, and the Warriors have quietly let up the eighth-most FPs to PGs, per FantasyPros. That puts Malik Monk ($6,500) in play, too. The combo guard has put up 33.5 FPs over his last seven games, averaging 16.9 points and 6.3 assists per game.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,900) -- A slate-leading 245.5 over/under between the 23rd- and 29th-rated defenses is a good recipe for fantasy production. Consider Jordan Clarkson; he's eligible at multiple positions and boasts elite upset, having exceeded 45 FPs in three games this month. A high total coupled with both the Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz ranking in the bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both guard spots make both backcourts interesting. Collin Sexton ($7,700) and, on the opposite side, Tyus Jones ($6,800) are both viable options in a similar salary range.

T.J. McConnell ($5,500) -- T.J. McConnell went for 25.7 FPs with Tyrese Haliburton out earlier this week, and, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, he's averaged 28.8 FPs with Haliburton sidelined. The Philadelphia 76ers defend the perimeter well, but a 239 over/under and five-point spread still hints at plenty of offense for the Indiana Pacers. Keep in mind that Andrew Nembhard ($5,100) actually started at PG earlier this week, playing six more minutes than McConnell and finishing with a near-identical 24.7 FPs. They're both strong salary-savers tonight.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Maxey ($9,100) -- Tonight's a pace-up spot for Philly; Indiana is second in pace and 27th in defensive rating. Don't let two sub-40-FP games scare you off Tyrese Maxey's elite upside (five 48-FP games over his last 10 games). It helps that the Sixers have the third-highest implied total (121.5) of the slate.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,800) -- LeBron James is questionable tonight. When he sits, D'Angelo Russell averages 44.7 FPs and a 26.6% usage rate. He's in play regardless, averaging 27.2 points, 7.0 assists, and 43.2 FPs over his last six games.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,900) -- Nickeil Alexander-Walker made a spot-start for Mike Conley last night, totaling 22.5 FPs. Over their last 15 games, the Brooklyn Nets have given up the fourth-most FPs to PGs and rank just 17th in defensive rating.

Ben Sheppard ($3,900) -- Ben Sheppard's averaged 19.2 minutes over his last five games, exceeding 20 FPs twice. He has six steals over that span.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,000) -- Based on his salary and 40.9-FP numberFire projection, DeMar DeRozan is the top point-per-dollar value among wings. The Los Angeles Lakers have dropped to 19th in defensive rating in their last 15 games, and they've given up the second-most FPs to SFs over that span. He should continue to see stellar utilization with Zach LaVine for the Chicago Bulls. In 19 previous LaVine absences, DeRozan averaged 41.1 FPs and a 25.2% usage rate.

Deni Avdija ($6,300) -- Deni Avdija just went for 38.2 FPs against the Minnesota Timberwolves' top-rated defense, so there's plenty of room for optimism against Utah. Not only are the Jazz just 23rd in defensive rating, but they've given up the second-most FPs to both forward spots. A 245.5 over/under between two of the league's 10 fastest-paced teams is the kind of game environment we want to target.

Patrick Williams ($5,200) -- Patrick Williams has gone for 20 FPs in three of his last four as he continues to outproduce his salary with Zach LaVine sidelined. With LaVine out, Williams has averaged 23.7 FPs in 31 minutes a night. He should benefit from a Lakers team that's slipped on defense but jumped to fourth in pace this month. We can still work with a 229 over/under.

Others to Consider

Mikal Bridges ($7,900) -- Mikal Bridges most recently went for 52.5 FP against a strong New York Knicks defense, so I'm not scared off by Minnesota. They've slipped to fourth in defensive rating this month and have allowed 118.5 points per game in the second night of back-to-backs this season.

Jonathan Kuminga ($6,100) -- Jonathan Kuminga might be putting it together, averaging 24.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 38.8 FPs over his last four games. Offense should be plentiful given the 242.5 over/under.

Aaron Nesmith ($5,100) -- Aaron Nesmith has cemented his starting status with 29 minutes and 18.2 FPs over his last three games. With six 20-FP games this month, he's a quality value with upside for more considering the 239 over/under.

Bigs

Top Plays

Joel Embiid ($12,600) -- Don't expect Joel Embiid to go for 104 FPs again, but at this point, nothing would surprise me. Embiid has the highest combination of floor and ceiling of anyone in the league; he still hasn't been held under 50 FPs since November. Indiana defends Cs well, but they're 27th in defensive rating and 24th in rebound rate. There's no reason to fade him, even with several high-salary bigs available.

Pascal Siakam ($7,700) -- Pascal Siakam is going to blow up eventually, so I'm willing to ride out a slow start to his Pacers career. Tonight could be the night, as the Sixers have dropped to 11th in defensive rating and 27th in rebound rate this month. As five-point 'dogs in a game with a 239 over/under, Siakam should have plenty of chances to score himself. It doesn't hurt that he's notched 14 assists in his first three games with the new team.

Marvin Bagley ($5,700) -- We can't ignore what Marvin Bagley III has done in Washington -- not when he's eligible at PF and C. In four games with the Wizards, Bagley's averaged 18.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 37.1 FPs per game. He posted a 23% usage rate over that span, so I'm optimistic he'll continue to roll against Utah. A favorable game environment makes Bagley a serious value tonight.

Others to Consider

Anthony Davis ($11,300) -- Anthony Davis hasn't enjoyed LeBron missing the last two games, but he's still gone for 58 FPs in six of 11 January contests. Chicago is bottom-10 in FPs allowed to Cs, so AD's a quality pivot off Embiid.

Nic Claxton ($7,500) -- numberFire's second-best value among Cs tonight, Nicolas Claxton faces a Wolves defense that's in the second night of a back-to-back and just gave up 17 points and 15 rebounds to Marvin Bagley. While he's only eligible at C, Claxton is a fine option if you're fading the high-salary bigs.

Keegan Murray ($6,700) -- Golden State is bottom-10 in FPs allowed to SFs, and they've given up the second-most threes per game this month. Keegan Murray (2.4 threes per game on 37% shooting) could take advantage of that.

Walker Kessler ($6,300) -- The Wizards are by far the most fantasy-friendly defense for opposing centers, so I'm interested in Walker Kessler for non-Embiid lineups. He's gone for 25 FPs in four straight, blocking 17 shots over that span. Opposing teams average 5.6 blocks per game against them, eighth-most in the NBA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.