NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 3/25/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 3/25/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Monday's main slate on FanDuel features nine games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,800) -- On one hand, rostering Luka Doncic on such a big slate means missing out on several high-upside studs in strong matchups. On the other hand, a large slate allows for more value plays to offset Luka's monster salary. Doncic's 60.4-FanDuel point (FP) numberFire projection is 15 FPs higher than the next-closest guard, and he just went for 64.8 FPs in a W over Utah last week. Nobody matches his floor/ceiling combination; just be sure you have enough low-salary options elsewhere.

Jordan Poole ($6,900) -- Jordan Poole is questionable, but he hasn't missed a game since January and is in a great spot to produce if active. The Wizards will already be without Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Poole saw an absurd 35% usage rate in two prior games without those two -- though he only averaged 25.5 minutes in a pair of blowouts. Still, the Bulls have dipped to 25th in defensive rating and have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to PGs over the last 15 games, per FantasyPros. The upside is there considering his points prop is set at 20.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Payton Pritchard ($5,300) -- Payton Pritchard has averaged 34.4 minutes and 34.7 FPPG over the last five games. That's coincided with Jrue Holiday missing four straight, and Boston has already announced Holiday's out again tonight. That should allow Pritchard a nice dose of minutes in an advantageous matchup with Atlanta. Though they've been better (and slower) of late, the Hawks are still 26th in defensive rating and 5th in pace on the year.

Others to Consider

Jalen Green ($8,500) -- Jalen Green's salary has skyrocketed in recent weeks, but for good reason. The third-year guard is amid a full-fledged breakout, averaging 28.3 actual and 42.4 FanDuel points over his last 12 games. His usage rate has spiked to 30% since Alperen Sengun went down on March 10th, so we can consider him at either guard spot against Portland. The Blazers are just 23rd in defensive rating over the last 15 games, but they have held Green under 30 FPs three times this season.

Miles McBride ($5,900) -- Can someone check on Miles McBride? The third-year guard has been an absolute ironman in recent games, notching 46, 44, and 48 minutes over the last three games. He's gone over 25 actual and 35 FanDuel points twice over that span -- though he doesn't offer much outside of scoring. Still, he should continue to see a sizable workload with OG Anunoby out, so we can play him as a salary-saver tonight. As of Monday afternoon, numberFire projects McBride for 30.9 FPs. That makes him the third-best point-per-dollar value among guards (5.23 FPs per $1,000).

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400) -- DeMar DeRozan has averaged 41.3 FPPG since the All-Star break, exceeding 40 FPs in eight of 16 games. With a mouth-watering matchup against Washington on deck, DeRozan has a sweet combination of floor and ceiling tonight. The Wizards continue to be one of the top fantasy matchups in the sport, ranking 29th in defensive rating but sixth in pace over their last 15 games. numberFire projects DeRozan for 43.7 FPs across 38.9 minutes.

Cam Thomas ($7,200) -- Cameron Thomas has been cooking since his return from injury, averaging 24.9 actual and 35.8 FanDuel points over the last eight games. He's in a nice spot to exceed both those marks against an injury-riddled Raptors defense that's allowed the most FPPG to SFs over the last 15 games. Toronto is down to 27th in defensive rating but leads the league in pace over that span, setting Cam Thomas up for a ceiling game. Thomas' points prop is set at 23.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jeff Green ($4,000) -- I'm not sure why Jeff Green's salary is only $4,000 tonight, but I'm not complaining. Coming off 25.4 and 33.3-FP efforts, Green is a much-needed salary-saver on such a star-studded slate. He's seen at least 24 minutes in three of the last four games and could see even more run with Jabari Smith suspended tonight. The Blazers have given up the second-most FPPG to SFs over the last 15 games while numberFire pegs him for 20.4 FPs (5.11 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Deni Avdija ($7,600) -- With Tyus Jones and Kyle Kuzma already ruled out for Washington, expect Deni Avdija to get plenty of work against Chicago. That's been an advantageous matchup for SFs in recent weeks; the Bulls have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to the position and are down to 25th in defensive rating over the last 15 games. Deni wasn't active for the two games both Jones and Kuzma missed, but he has seen a 22% usage rate with those two off the floor. Coming off a 47.1-FP game, there's proven upside here.

Kris Murray ($5,000) -- I can get behind either Kris Murray or Toumani Camara ($4,900) as salary-savers in a pace-up spot with Houston tonight. While Camara is coming off a 38.4-FP game against Denver, Murray has been more consistent of late with three straight 25-FP outings. Houston is down their starting PF and C tonight, and they've been an above-average PF matchup all year. That puts Jabari Walker ($5,000) in consideration at PF, too -- though all three are best rostered in larger tournaments.

Bigs

Top Plays

Victor Wembanyama ($11,000) -- Victor Wembanyama is questionable after spraining his ankle in Saturday's loss to the Suns. He did participate in shootaround ahead of tonight's rematch, so I'm bullish he plays. Assuming Wemby is active, I'm more than okay running him out there in a bounce back spot. Although Phoenix has been a tough matchup for Cs all season, Wemby's proven to have the sort of slate-winning upside few players can match on a night-to-night basis. Having already gone for 38 points and 10 rebounds in a previous matchup with the Suns, he's an obvious building block if healthy.

Nicolas Claxton ($7,000) -- Nicolas Claxton has established an incredibly solid floor, exceeding 25 FPs in 11 of 12 games this month. Though he's only gone over 40 FPs twice in that span, a date with Toronto's barren front line gives him a nice ceiling tonight. Over their last 15 games, the Raptors have given up the most FPPG to Cs in addition to ranking 30th in rebound rate. Even with a mid-range salary, Claxton's 37-FP numberFire projection makes him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.29 FPs per $1,000). Claxton's points + rebounds prop is set at 24.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,700) -- Value is plentiful at PF tonight, but Dorian Finney-Smith is a model favorite. numberFire projects Finney-Smith for 24.9 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.31 FPs per $1,000). Finney-Smith has been quiet the last few games, but he notably played 21 minutes in Brooklyn's most recent outing and should see more run with Cameron Johnson out. A dream matchup with Toronto puts DFS firmly on the DFS radar.

Others to Consider

Nikola Jokic ($12,000) -- Nikola Jokic is questionable tonight after sitting out over the weekend. The Joker isn't one to miss games often, but a matchup with the 13th-place Grizzlies could have Denver err on the side of caution. Given the lopsided spread, Jokic isn't a smash in this spot regardless, yet he is the high-projected big man on the slate (56.7 FPs). If he does sit, DeAndre Jordan ($4,300) would be a strong value. He went for 29.1 FPs in 19 minutes sans Jokic over the weekend and is averaging 1.05 FPs per minute with him off the floor this season.

Jock Landale ($5,500) -- If Jokic plays but you want to save salary at C, consider Jock Landale. Landale has taken on a much bigger role in the wake of Alperen Sengun's injury, averaging 22.4 minutes and 25.0 FPPG over the last six games. Portland has given up the sixth-most points in the paint over the last 15 games, and they've surrendered the second-most FPPG to Cs on the year. Consequently, Landale's is projected for 29.1 FPs, making him the second-best value among Cs, and the fourth-best overall (5.28 FPs per $1,000).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.