FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 12/11/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,200) -- Luka Doncic is on a tear right now, averaging 36 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 13 assists across his last three games. He comes with a hefty salary but is a DFS building block with Kyrie Irving out. Dating back to last season, Doncic has posted a 38.7% usage rate with Irving off the floor, so he should see plenty of work in a soft matchup with Memphis. Per FantasyPros, the Grizzlies have given up the fifth-most FanDuel points (FP) per game (51.7) to point guards. He's one of a handful of true superstars available for tonight's slate.

Fred VanVleet ($7,800) -- I try and go out of my way to target the San Antonio Spurs in DFS, so Fred VanVleet is someone I want a lot of exposure to tonight. VanVleet has been remarkably consistent of late, eclipsing 35 FP in nine consecutive games while averaging 16.2 points and 9.6 assists over that span. He should thrive against a Spurs team allowing the second-most FP per game to opposing point guards (52.8). Worth noting: VanVleet carries a 42.7-point numberFire projection, making him the best point-per-dollar guard on the board.

Dante Exum ($6,000) -- I'm into stacking Luka and Dante Exum in a soft matchup tonight. Exum looked great in his second start of the season, scoring 39.7 FP thanks to a 23-point, 6-rebound, 7-assists performance. With Kyrie out again tonight, Exum is in line to see 30-plus minutes against a Grizzlies defense that's struggled against both guard spots this season. He's a nice salary-saver for Luka-based lineups. Exum also carries a 32.3-point numberFire protection, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among guards.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($11,700) -- I prefer Doncic tonight, but you can't go wrong with Tyrese Haliburton. Though he was (relatively) held in check during Saturday's In-Season Tournament (IST) Championship, Hali had previously eclipsed 60 FD points in three consecutive games. Tonight should be a wonderful get-right spit. Not only have the Detroit Pistons given up the most FD points per game to point guards (54.0), the Indiana Pacers have the slate's second-highest implied team total (127.25). Barring some post-IST fatigue, 'Hali should get back to his usual dominance tonight.

Shaedon Sharpe ($7,600) -- It took a month, but Shaedon Sharpe is finally turning in consistent fantasy production. Over his last four games, Sharpe has averaged 43.1 FD points per game, scoring at least 39 in all four outings. With Jerami Grant out and both Malcolm Brogdon and Deandre Ayton questionable, Sharpe could again find himself as the primary offensive option. The floor should be there, just don't expect a ceiling performance against a Los Angeles Clippers D that ranks fifth in defensive rating and has allowed the sixth-fewest FD points per game to shooting guards (39.1).

Tyus Jones ($5,900) -- Tyus Jones comes with a manageable salary and an intriguing matchup tonight. Not only have the Philadelphia 76ers given up the fourth-most FD points to point guards (51.9), Jones torched them for 43.6 FD points just last week. He should further benefit from a strong game environment considering their bout with Philly has the second-highest over/under of the slate (243.5). He's one of my favorite salary-savers on a night chock-full of high-salaried stars.

Wings

Top Plays

Jimmy Butler ($8,500) -- With so many high-profile guards and bigs tonight, I'm not looking to allocate much of my FanDuel salary toward wings...unless they're named Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Buckets is coming off a pair of quiet performances, but he should see as much work as he can handle with both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro out. Per CourtIQ, Butler has averaged 39.2 FP and enjoyed a 26.7% usage rate with both of them out over the last three seasons, so there's a nice ceiling here against a Charlotte Hornets squad that has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,200) -- Indiana -- the league leaders in pace -- is a matchup I'm consistently drawn to in DFS, so the recently healthy Bojan Bogdanovic has a ton of appeal tonight. Bogdanovic has turned in 29.4, 44.3, and 15.1-point outings in his first three games. While there's a wide range of outcomes for him, Indy has let up the fourth-most FP to opposing small forwards and the projections love him tonight. numberFire pegs Bojan for 32.3 FP tonight, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among small forwards.

Herbert Jones ($5,800) -- Herbert Jones comes with a degree of variance but with 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, there's no denying the defensive specialist's upside on FanDuel. In his last six games, Jones has two games with more than 40 FP, two games with less than 20 FP, and two between 27 and 33 FP. He's a high-upside play at this current salary and could feast against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that turns the ball over at the eighth-highest rate in the league.

Others to Consider

Jalen Williams ($6,900) -- Jalen Williams was an intriguing DFS play before Luguentz Dort was ruled out for tonight's bout with the Utah Jazz. Now, he becomes especially interesting considering Utah has given up the second-most FP to opposing small forwards (49.2) and has the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league. It doesn't hurt that he's coming off his best fantasy game of the year, a 48.0-point outing that saw him score 28 points and notch three steals.

Kelly Oubre ($5,500) -- There's some risk with Kelly Oubre in his third game back, but the upside he flashed earlier in the season is hard to ignore in such a tasty matchup. The Washington Wizards play at the second-fastest pace yet rank dead-last in defensive rating and have given up the most FP to opposing small forwards (50.4). On top of that, Joel Embiid is banged up and could cede work to his supporting cast against the last-place Wizards.

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($12,400) -- numberFire projects Nikola Jokic for a slate-high 64.2 FP tonight -- nearly five points higher than the next-closest player. The Joker hasn't shot well in the last two games, and he's only averaged 18.5 points per game against Clint Capela the last three seasons, but he's still put up over 50 FP a night against him, and the Hawks are allowing the sixth-most FP to centers (56.6). With eight straight games of at least 50 FP, Jokic is the definition of set-and-forget -- even if Jamal Murray's return has eaten into his scoring a bit.

Alperen Sengun ($8,700) -- If you don't want to reach for Jokic's monster salary but also want to stay away from the value centers, Alperen Sengun makes for a strong mid-range play tonight. Sengun has a massive ceiling -- he's eclipsed 55 FP four times -- thanks to his all-around game, averaging 20.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Those counting stats bode well for him against San Antonio. The Spurs have allowed the fourth-most points (24.6), third-most rebounds (16.5), and 12th-most assists to opposing centers. He went for 55.3 FP against them in a prior matchup so I won't be shocked to see him outperform projections again.

Omer Yurtseven ($4,400) -- You'll likely see a ton of Omer Yurtseven in optimizers tonight, and it's easy to see why. Yurtseven has flashed fantasy upside in limited action, notably snagging 15 rebounds en route to 38 FP just over a week ago. With Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen out, the second-year big man should see a good amount of run against an OKC team that's given up the fifth-most FP to centers (57) and ranks 29th in rebound rate (46.8%). His measly salary could be especially valuable on a night with so many strong guard options.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900) -- Don't be shocked if Giannis Antetokounmpo breaks the slate against the Chicago Bulls tonight. He dropped 66.3 FP against them in late November and went for 79.9 FP against them last season. He's comfortably numberFire's highest-projected PF as Chicago has been friendly to opposing bigs. Milwaukee has the fourth-highest implied team total (122.25) of the slate, so there's a high floor here, as well.

Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,900) -- With Mitchell Robinson out 8-10 weeks, Isaiah Hartenstein's salary will soon skyrocket. For tonight, at least, he'll operate as a stellar value option at either power forward or center. Per CourtIQ, Hartenstein has averaged 36.1 FP per 36 minutes with Robinson off the court this season. The Toronto Raptors have been middle-of-the-pack against centers, but Hartenstein's measly salary can give you a ton of flexibility with the rest of your lineup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.