FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Sunday 6/30/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Sunday 6/30/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.


Pitchers to Target

Garrett Crochet ($10,900)

It's still beyond comprehension the Chicago White Sox might move Garrett Crochet ($10,900) at this year's deadline.

The 25-year-old has been a beast for the Pale Hose this season, compiling a 2.38 xERA, .191 expected batting average (xBA), and 34.9% strikeout rate. All of those rank in the 95th percentile or better across baseball.

He should have an opportunity to shine today against a Colorado Rockies offense that's not too scary against southpaws. Colorado's 107 wRC+ during June in this split -- always adjusting for park -- isn't bad, but their healthy 28.2% strikeout rate should allow Crochet to rack up quite a few Ks around whatever damage might be done.

Usually, we have to worry about the lefty's win equity, but the ChiSox are -225 home favorites on Sunday. Crochet is one half of today's two best pitching candidates -- both of whom are perhaps the best candidates we'll get all week.

Ranger Suarez ($10,200)

The other half is Ranger Suarez ($10,200) of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Suarez is another left-hander that's enjoyed a breakout 2024 campaign. He's MLB's qualified ERA leader (1.83) going up against the easiest possible matchup for him at present. At home, he draws the Miami Marlins, who are truly dreadful against lefties.

This month, Miami has posted the league's worst wRC+ (56) against them with a monstrous 28.0% strikeout rate. There isn't much doubt that Suarez is the best they'll have faced yet to close the month. He's posted an elite 2.82 xERA, 33.2% chase rate, and 5.0% barrel rate -- all 80th percentile or better in MLB.

Personally, Suarez is the best pitching option of the day. At a lower salary, his opponent presents less danger than the Rockies do, and his 5.5-strikeout prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is simply undervalued.

Others to Consider

  • Hunter Greene ($9,900)
    • You can definitely make an argument for Greene when the St. Louis Cardinals' 97 wRC+ against righties this month isn't too scary. He just doesn't encroach the projection of our top-two guys.
  • Kevin Gausman ($9,000)
    • Gausman's as low as I'd go on a slate where one of these pitchers should go bananas. With no Juan Soto in the New York Yankees' lineup today, there are plenty of free outs if the righty can navigate Aaron Judge.

Stacks to Target

Toronto Blue Jays

Today's stacking section starts against Gerrit Cole. Baseball, you never cease to surprise me.

Of course, the Yankees' right-hander is one of the most talented arms in baseball overall, but he's just not found his footing since returning from the IL. Cole has a 9.44 xERA, 63.0% flyball rate, and 55.6% hard-hit rate allowed in his eight innings of work thus far, culminating in 4.50 HR/9.

Yet, I know his name value will keep the Toronto Blue Jays unpopular on today's slate. I prefer leaning into the struggles when Cole's fastball velocity (95.2 mph) is down. He might not be entirely right, and the Yanks' bullpen has the fifth-worst xFIP this month (4.51) if he can't figure things out in a hurry.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,300) is an easy place to start on his current power binge, clubbing an .885 OPS and .256 ISO in the split this month. Others making the curve with a 100 wRC+ include Justin Turner ($2,800) and Spencer Horowitz ($2,800). Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,700) and Daulton Varsho ($3,000) also have an ISO above .140 against righties this month.

Most importantly, this stack's best pieces are salary-friendly. That's an important note with Suarez or Crochet, and it's a gamble that could pay off if Cole just isn't right.

Chicago White Sox

I'm doubling down on a 24-61 baseball team. What could possibly go wrong?

In addition to Crochet on the bump, his offense has a matchup to exploit, too. The Rockies are sending Kyle Freeland to the mound, and Freeland's results in 2024 -- even factoring in his park at Coors Field -- haven't made the grade.

The lefty has an ugly 5.31 xERA, 12.1% strikeout rate, and 7.1% barrel rate allowed through 21.2 innings pitched. While the sinkerballer can -- at times -- be a puzzle, the equation becomes a simpler one once he departs. Colorado's 4.60 bullpen xFIP in June is the worst of any team on this main slate.

Yet, the largest reason to consider the White Sox is their own personal improvements against left-handed pitching. Chicago's .737 team OPS against southpaws is 15th in MLB this month, so they've reached a level of viability to use in stacks against weak ones like Freeland.

Luis Robert ($3,300) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,800) have led the charge with an OPS north of .850 against lefties this month, and though Eloy Jimenez ($2,800) is just seven plate appearances deep after returning from injury, I believe he'll help them with a career 101 wRC+ and .172 ISO in the split. Don't sleep on Paul DeJong ($2,700) with a .143 ISO against lefties this month, as well.

Chicago plated 11 runs yesterday, and Freeland represent an opportunity to keep the momentum rolling.

Others to Consider

  • Milwaukee Brewers
    • The balancing act between targeting Kyle Hendricks' 4.87 xERA with a solid rate of limiting hard contact (30.7%) stops through Milwaukee. It's a bit easier to justify when the Cubs' bullpen (4.11 xFIP in June) has been so bad.
  • Philadelphia Phillies
    • We saw yesterday that the Phils could only muster two runs against an easier righty than Yonny Chirinos. This lineup is just significantly down on firepower with both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the injured list. I'm avoiding them today despite an elite implied team total (5.31).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.