MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/30/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 6/30/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Though Ranger Suarez isn't the highest strikeout collector in MLB, it's pretty unfathomable that this line exists.

Suarez's Philadelphia Phillies conclude their series with the Miami Marlins today, and Miami has been absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching. They've posted a league-worst 56 wRC+ along with a hefty strikeout rate (28.0%) in the split. This is the first southpaw they've faced in the City of Brotherly Love.

It's not like the lefty can't get whiffs of his own, either. Suarez's 26.1 K% and 32.2% chase rate are in the 70th percentile or better among qualified pitchers across baseball.

Our daily MLB projections expect 6.36 strikeouts from Suarez during today's game. I'd hop on this number quickly as it rises.

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

White Sox -1.5 (-104)
Andrew Vaughn 2+ Total Bases (-110)

It seemed possible to go an entire season without considering the Chicago White Sox on a favored run line, but the Colorado Rockies in town means they're punching within their own weight class.

They'll probably do so as Alex Pereira did in his weight class on Saturday. Chicago will send Garrett Crochet to the bump, and Crochet seems to be raising his asking price at the trade deadline each start. The southpaw has a marvelous 2.38 xERA, 34.1% strikeout rate, and miniscule 5.4% walk rate amidst a breakout campaign. He'll be just fine against the Rox, whose 107 wRC+ in this split this month also comes with the league's highest strikeout rate (28.2%).

In turn, Colorado sends Kyle Freeland to the mound, and Freeland's 5.31 xERA, 12.1% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate are significantly worse. The Pale Hose have shown some life in the past month against southpaws, improving to a team .737 OPS that is 15th in MLB.

Expect the ChiSox to at least scoot a couple across and let Crochet do the rest.

One of those White Sox sluggers that has turned it around is Andrew Vaughn, who has a 151 wRC+, .893 OPS, and .179 ISO in the split during June. Importantly for a base prop, Vaughn has zero walks in this 28-plate-appearance sample.

We've got Vaughn projected for 2.07 median total bases in today's game.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Reds ML (-106)

I think I'm missing something here.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .728 OPS against right-handed pitching this month -- a huge climb from their season-long mark (.676). It's also nearly identical to the St. Louis Cardinals' .725 OPS in June against righties. As two orthodox hurlers square off in St. Louis, I'll take the better one with the better bullpen.

That's Hunter Greene, whose home ballpark might be masking what's been an otherwise outstanding season. Greene's 3.28 xERA, .204 expected batting average (xBA), and 35.2% hard-hit rate allowed are all in the 70th percentile or better across MLB. His ERA (3.79) is just inflated due to the Reds' home venue.

On the other side, Lance Lynn might be hiding behind his stadium. Lynn's 3.86 ERA is actually a 4.35 xERA in merit, and he fails to even meet the 50th percentile in any of those aforementioned categories.

Plus, in the month of June, the Reds' bullpen (3.68 xFIP) has been a bit more reliable than the Redbirds' (4.04).

It's a little unnerving to suggest Cincinnati takes three of four from this series from the Cards at home, but Greene is a significant advantage in a game where oddsmakers aren't really taking a side.

Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 8.5 (-102)

These two teams left 14 men on base yesterday to -- somehow -- crawl to a three-run affair in "The Valley". They can only hide the inevitable for so long.

In June, the Oakland Athletics and Arizona Diamondbacks have the two worst bullpens in baseball by xFIP. This average total could end up looking like a steal in hindsight if the starting pitchers aren't up to snuff, and we've got two weak candidates to meet that mark.

Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt will likely have the easier day at the office, but he's not perfect. Pfaadt's .244 xBA and 38.8% hard-hit rate allowed both hover around the 50th percentile. It's just that Oakland's offense has a dismal .605 OPS against righties this month. I'm still optimistic for them with a hard-contact rate as a team in that same split of 32.8%.

On the other side, Oakland's Luis Medina has struggled outright. Medina's 5.63 ERA is actually a bit unlucky, per a 4.69 xERA -- but neither of those marks are quality ones. Plus, his 47.5% flyball and 43.8% hard-hit rates allowed are a perfect cocktail for round-trippers. Yet, he's ceded just 0.75 of those per nine innings thanks to one of baseball's best home parks for avoiding them.

numberFire is projecting 10.27 total runs in this game at a median, and I'd have also thought it would carry a total of at least 9.0. This line might be a bit of an overreaction to yesterday's low score.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.