Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Saturday 6/22/24

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Saturday 6/22/24

The 2024 UEFA European Football Championship -- also known as Euro 2024 -- is here, and it should be a fun tournament.

FanDuel Sportsbook's Euro 2024 odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action, including betting lines for each match.

Let's take a look at the best bets for Saturday's matches.

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Betting Picks

Turkey vs. Portugal (12 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-138)

The highlight of Saturday's three-match slate is a clash between Turkey (42nd in FIFA's World Rankings) and Portugal (sixth).

Both sides got off to a winning start in their openers -- Turkey defeated Georgia 3-1 while Portugal squeaked past Czechia 2-1. Looking at expected goals xG -- per FBRef's xG model -- both results were deserved. Turkey won 3.0-1.4 on xG while Portugal won 1.9-0.4.

The wins were a continuation of both sides' form from qualifying, where Turkey won Group D, which included Croatia and Wales, and Portugal topped Group J with 10 wins in 10 matches. The wins were also a continuation of both sides lack of clean sheets in recent matches.

Portugal allowed just two goals in qualifying, but that came against a weaker group. In their five friendlies since qualifying ended, they conceded multiple goals to Sweden, Slovenia, Finland, and Croatia. While they dominated possession (73%), shots (19-5), and shots on target (8-1) against Czechia, they still couldn't keep a clean sheet.

Turkey's attack is in excellent form after their 3-1 win, which included two highlight-reel goals. They will be a tougher test for Portugal than the one Portugal just struggled to pass. Unfortunately for Turkey, the reverse is also true.

While Turkey's goals were the focus, their defense against Georgia was concerning. They were fortunate to only allow one goal -- Georgia generated other excellent opportunities that they failed to capitalize on. In the end, Turkey allowed 1.4 xG -- the second-most xG generated by a losing side in the tournament so far, behind only Belgium (1.6 xG).

Portugal has scored multiple goals in 12 of their last 16 matches, including three of their last four. Both sides enter this one in good goal-scoring form with some questions at the back. For that reason, I like over 2.5 goals.

Belgium vs. Romania (3 p.m. ET)

Belgium And Over 2.5 (+110)

Here we go again.

After a decade of coming up short at major tournaments, Belgium's 1-0 loss to Slovakia in their opener was disappointing, to say the least. On the other hand, Romania got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 win over a decent Ukraine side.

Given those results, it may be a bit surprising to see Belgium listed as a significant favorite on the moneyline (-230, 69.7% implied win odds), via the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, but both Opta's model (62.8%) and MasseyRatings (68%) are in the same ballpark.

Underlying metrics indicate that Belgium was unlucky to lose their opener -- they won 1.6-0.6 on xG. Romania won their clash on xG -- 1.1-0.7 -- but the margin was much closer than the 3-0 scoreline suggested. Romania got all three points despite having just 30% of the possession, worse passing accuracy (69% to 85%) and fewer shots than Ukraine (9 to 13).

If Romania allow Belgium similar opportunities in this clash, they may not be as fortunate in their result. Belgium scored the fourth-most goals/90 (2.75) in qualifying while tying France for the second-fewest goals allowed/90 (0.37).

Belgium's finishing woes may continue, but there should be no shortage of opportunities for them in this one. I expect Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and company to bounce back in a near must-win match on Saturday.

Prop Bets

Bruno Fernandes To Score or Assist (+105): It didn't lead to a goal or an assist, but Fernandes was excellent in Portugal's opening win. He led Portugal in touches (107), shot creating action (8), progressive passes (12), and expected assisted goals (0.6). He also recorded two shots. If Turkey allow Portugal the kind of opportunities they allowed Georgia, Fernandes has the quality to capatalize.

Romelu Lukaku To Score (+100): With Belgium listed as large favorites versus a Romania side that just allowed Ukraine to have 70% possession, Lukaku should have several opportunities in the final third on Saturday. He placed two of his three shots on target in the opener and also had two goals disallowed. In qualifying, he led all players in goals/90 (2.13) and is coming off an excellent season for Roma.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.