Duke vs Virginia College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 28

The Duke Blue Devils (26-2, 14-1 ACC) bring a five-game win streak into a home matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers (25-3, 13-2 ACC), winners of nine straight.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Duke vs. Virginia Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Game time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Durham, North Carolina
• Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium

Duke vs. Virginia Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Duke win (69.4%)

See these betting insights and trends before you wager on Saturday's Duke-Virginia spread (Duke -10.5) or total (140.5 points).

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Duke vs. Virginia: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Duke has won 15 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 13 times.
• Virginia has won 15 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 13 times.
• When playing at home, the Blue Devils have a worse record against the spread (5-8-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (7-3-0).
• The Cavaliers' winning percentage against the spread at home is .533 (8-7-0). Away, it is .556 (5-4-0).
• Duke is 8-7-0 against the spread in conference action this year.
• Virginia's ACC record against the spread is 8-7-0.

Duke vs. Virginia: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Duke has come away with 19 wins in the 21 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• The Blue Devils have yet to lose in 15 games when named as moneyline favorite of -599 or better.
• Virginia has won all three of the games it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Cavaliers have not played a game this season with moneyline odds of +430 or longer.
• Duke has an implied victory probability of 85.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Duke vs. Virginia Head-to-Head Comparison

• Duke was the 11th-best team in the country in points scored (83.2 per game) and seventh-best in points conceded (62.8) last season.
• Last year, Duke was 24th-best in the nation in rebounds (35.6 per game) and 12th-best in rebounds conceded (27.3).
• Last season Duke was 17th-best in college basketball in assists with 16.9 per game.
• Last year, Duke was ninth-best in college basketball in turnovers committed (8.9 per game) and ranked 265th in turnovers forced (10.4).
• Virginia found it difficult to put up points last season, ranking fifth-worst in college basketball with 64.8 points per game. It fared better on defense, ranking 39th by surrendering 66.8 points per contest.
• Virginia found it difficult to rack up rebounds last season, ranking worst in college basketball with 26.8 boards per game. It ranked 104th by allowing 30.1 boards per contest.
• Last year Virginia ranked 93rd in college basketball in assists, delivering 14.7 per game.
• Virginia ranked 19th-worst in college basketball with 9.2 forced turnovers per game, but it helped negate that by ranking 25th-best in college basketball averaging 9.3 turnovers per contest.

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