World Series Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers

The World Series is finally upon us, and just as we all expected entering the 2023 season, this one will pit the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Texas Rangers. You know, just a couple of teams that finished the previous season with losing records.

These two teams may have entered the year as massive underdogs, but they've fought tooth and nail to earn their spots in the championship series, which begins Friday, October 27th at 8:00 p.m. ET and will be aired on FOX.

The Diamondbacks opened up their wild-card-spot playoff run by winning five straight games, knocking off the Milwaukee Brewers and first-seed Los Angeles Dodgers as efficiently as possible. They're fresh off of a nail-biting seven-game series during which they trailed 0-2 and 2-3 to the Philadelphia Phillies. They'll look to secure the second World Series title in franchise history.

The Rangers started the season off with a bang, quickly ascending as one of the hottest offenses in baseball. A late-summer drought cost them the top spot in the AL West, but like the Diamondbacks, the Rangers still swept their first two playoff series with a swift 5-0 start over the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles.

Also like the Diamondbacks, the Rangers similarly won a seven-game series to clinch their spot in the World Series, besting the in-state rival Houston Astros in a high stakes back-and-forth matchup. A win here would bring the Rangers their first World Series in franchise history.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

All World Series Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Series Moneyline:

• Diamondbacks: +146
• Rangers: -174

Total Games:

• 4 (+580)
• 5 (+275)
• 6 (+205)
• 7 (+205)

Correct Score:

• Rangers 4-0 (+880)
• Rangers 4-1 (+520)
• Rangers 4-2 (+390)
• Rangers 4-3 (+410)
• Diamondbacks 4-0 (+1500)
• Diamondbacks 4-1 (+760)
• Diamondbacks 4-2 (+630)
• Diamondbacks 4-3 (+570)

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Diamondbacks (84-78/2nd in NL West):

• nERD: 0.12 (17th)
• Run Differential: -16 (15th)
• Home Record: 43-38
• Away Record: 41-40
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 166 (22nd)
  • wOBA: .317 (17th)
  • SLG: .408 (17th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (14th)
  • K%: 20.4% (4th)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.31 (19th)
  • xFIP: 4.36 (19th)
  • BB%: 8.6% (17th)
  • K%: 22.1% (22nd)

Rangers (90-72/2nd in AL West):

• nERD: 0.98 (8th)
• Run Differential: +165 (4th)
• Home Record: 50-31
• Away Record: 40-41
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 233 (4th)
  • wOBA: .340 (3rd)
  • SLG: .452 (3rd)
  • BB%: 9.5% (5th)
  • K%: 22.5% (15th)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.24 (18th)
  • xFIP: 4.35 (18th)
  • BB%: 8.1% (11th)
  • K%: 22.4 (21st)

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Analysis

If you're a fan of stats -- and the odds of that are pretty good if you're reading World Series content on FanDuel Research -- the Diamondbacks look like pretty big underdogs for the series title here.

Judging by the regular season advanced stats above, the only metric in which the Diamondbacks have a definitive edge over the Rangers is in their strikeout rate at the plate, as the D-Backs had some pretty nice plate discipline this season.

That said, the Diamondbacks have come out of the gates swinging in the postseason. They've been mashing long balls in September and October, upping their SLG from a .408 this season to .424 in the playoffs.

They've hit 18 dingers so far and are scoring runs when it matters most. According to FanGraphs, Arizona's 0.74 Clutch rating leads all postseason teams, indicating that they're playing their best ball when the stakes are highest. They withstood the Phillies' torrent of offense and will look to keep their hot steak going against the Rangers.

Unfortunately for them, the Rangers have arguably had an even hotter playoff offense than their most recent foes. Texas' .825 playoff OPS is the best mark of any team that survived the regular season while their 124 wRC+ significantly outpaces Arizona's 99 wRC+. The Rangers' star-studded offense was a juggernaut during the regular season and hasn't slowed down this fall.

Studs like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and 2023 post-season home run leader Adolis Garcia have been playing to their usual standards, but the whole breadth of the Rangers' batting order has fangs. Rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter haven't shied away from the postseason spotlight while journeymen contributors like Travis Jankowski and Mitch Garver have been impact players. Theirs is a well-balanced lineup that can score out of any given position.

The Rangers look to have the edge on offense for this World Series bout, but the Diamondbacks' pitching situation has been the sharper of the two this postseason.

Texas made it this far without ace pitcher Jacob deGrom but could've really used his help right about now. Their 4.40 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is the second-worst mark among postseason teams and would have ranked as a bottom-10 score when stacked up against the rest of the league's regular season marks.

By comparison, Arizona's 4.09 SIERA ranks seventh-best this postseason despite their having survived elite offenses from the Dodgers and Phillies. Their trade-deadline move to acquire closer Paul Sewald from the Seattle Mariners is paying dividends -- Sewald has notched six saves and a win in his eight appearances this postseason.

No matter how you break it down, this series is going to be an exciting one. Can the Rangers' white-hot offense get the better of the Diamondbacks' strong pitching depth? Or will Arizona's elite clutch gene carry them to a World Series title?

Both of these teams may have begun the season as underdogs, but no one can now deny that these are two of the most exhilarating teams in the sport.

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