Braves at Phillies: 3 Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 4

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Prop Bets to Target
Ozzie Albies To Record 2+ Bases (-105)
The Atlanta Braves' bats have gone missing. A team that led the league in batting average, home runs, and total runs in the regular season -- paving the way to an MLB-best 104-58 record -- has been outscored 17-7 in the NLDS by the Philadelphia Phillies.
Now on the brink of elimination, the Atlanta lineup will need to find the offensive spark they were once strikingly familiar with, and they will see a pitching matchup that should help them do just that.
Ranger Suarez is on the bump for the Phillies tonight. He had a solid, albeit brief, outing in Game 1 of this series, going 3.2 innings and allowing zero runs.
The Braves will look to turn in their Game 1 bye-based lethargy for a win-or-go-home attitude in Game 4, so I think we'll see a different tune for this Suarez matchup, especially given how lethal some of the Atlanta batters are opposite left-handed pitchers.
Ozzie Albies is the first Brave batter I'm looking to target. He hasn't been as cold as some of his teammates, knocking in 10 hits over his last six games. More importantly, his numbers against left-handed pitchers this season couldn't get much better -- Albies posted a league-best .391 batting average against this handedness, while also clocking in with a .617 slugging percentage and 174 wRC+.
All this, plus the fact that Suarez allows a .338 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .424 slugging percentage (SLG) to righties, makes Albies a great candidate to do some damage in Game 4.
Marcell Ozuna To Record 2+ RBIs (+440)
If the Braves' offense makes a splash tonight, Marcell Ozuna will likely be in on the fun.
His numbers against left-handed pitchers are superb, including a .405 wOBA, .635 SLG, and 156 wRC+. Ozuna also hits for pretty substantial power against lefties, boasting a 27.9% HR/FB ratio, 41.6% hard-hit rate, and 42.6% fly-ball rate.
Though Ozuna certainly shines against southpaws and should see some decent looks against Suarez, his overall season numbers (.274 batting average, .558 SLG, 139 wRC+, 40 home runs) are solid enough that I like his chances to produce even when Suarez is out of the game.
There are a few reasons why I am backing Ozuna to record 2+ RBIs in lieu of other batting props.
First off, he tallied 100 RBIs (16th in MLB) this season, so we know he will always be in the mix as an RBI candidate.
Ozuna also finds himself fifth in the Atlanta batting order. Given that Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Austin Riley precede him in the lineup and combine for an average of a .391 OBP and .408 wOBA against lefties, I think there will be some moments where Ozuna walks up to the plate with runners in scoring position.
There were 30 games this season in which Ozuna recorded one RBI and 27 games where he knocked in two or more. With Ozuna's odds To Record an RBI at +130 and his odds to record 2+ RBIs at +440, I like the value of the latter more.
Spencer Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+124)
While going against the grain of the Phillies' red-hot offense may seem like an amateur move, a vintage Spencer Strider is what will ultimately save the Braves season, and history shows this is a nice-value prop.
It's no secret that Strider is the best punchout ace in baseball. This season, he averaged a league-best 13.55 strikeouts per nine innings (next-best averaged 11.70) and held a massive 36.8% strikeout rate (second-best was 31.5%).
He has struck out nine-plus batters in 66.7% of his starts this season (22 out of 33). In games where he threw 65-plus pitches, he struck out nine-plus batters in 71.9% of these starts (22 out of 31).
The main issue in siding with Strider is that if things turn ugly early, he will likely get yanked quickly. Atlanta's season is on the line, so they won't mess around if things get stodgy.
However, a case can be made that Strider is the only guy that Atlanta wants on the mound in this game. The pitching plan clearly didn't work last night when the Braves' arms gave up a colossal six four-baggers, and Strider has displayed a dominant history against the Phillies this season.
In the regular season, Atlanta went 4-0 against Philly in games where Strider was on the bump. He pitched a total of 28 innings in those four games and fanned 38 batters (nine-plus Ks in all four games).
Including Game 1, Strider averages 9.2 strikeouts per start against Philadelphia. And though the Phillies' offense is clearly having quite the moment, they've actually seen an increase in strikeout rate in the postseason. Philadelphia ended the regular season with a 23.9% strikeout rate (11th), a number which has increased to 26.6% in the playoffs.
Given that Strider punches out nine-plus batters more often than not -- on the season as a whole as well as against the Phillies -- I think the +124 odds on this prop outweigh the risk.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.



